NO PRESSURE, BOYS
The 3 Islanders Most Needed to Step Up
Most of the hockey press has the Islanders finishing between 13th and 15th in the Eastern Conference. This blogger has them more in the 10-12 range. However, for the Islanders to over-achieve beyond most everyone’s expectations, a formula does exist.
I’ve thought about this for a long, long time (actually, for about 15 minutes). The equations have been analyzed by sabermetricians (I really just ran it by one guy, who nodded). I asked Bill James to take a look and he passed it on to Theo Epstein. With plenty of time on his hands during the MLB playoffs, “Moneyball” Billy Beane gave me the green light. So here goes:
Trent Hunter, Jon Sim and Jeff Tambellini: if they have good years, the first genuine season of an Islanders rebuild could include a playoff appearance.
Your head is spinning from all the complex data, I know.
Here’s the way I look at it. Assuming the goaltending (top 5 in the East, if The Kid is okay) and defense (top 10) are true to form, the Islanders’ success comes down to production from the forwards.
But when you consider most of the Islanders’ front 12, what you see is likely what you will get. Veterans Bill Guerin, Mike Comrie and Doug Weight should hover around 15-25 goals and 45-55 points. Kids Blake Comeau, Sean Bergenheim, Kyle Okposo and Frans Neilsen can have good seasons, but to expect any of them to score more than 15 goals would be a stretch at this point in their careers.
Richard Park will excel because he pushes himself to the max every time he steps on the ice, but Jason Blake 40-goal bonanzas don’t happen very often. Andy Hilbert should get a few more goals. If Mike Sillinger can match his career points-per-game average after what he’s been through, give the man the Masterton.
Which means it all comes down to Hunter, Sim and Tambellini – and the numbers they’d have to hit are not unrealistic.
Hunter scored 25 goals in 2003-04 when he was a finalist for the Calder Trophy. He scored 12 last season. Besides killing penalties and getting to the net, Hunter could make a difference for the Islanders this season by pitching in with a reasonable 22 goals. In his four seasons in the NHL Hunter has averaged 18 goals a year. Scoring 22 does not seem like a big ask.
Sim scored 17 goals in each of his last two full NHL seasons before ripping up his knee last year in his second game as an Islander. He’s never had the responsibility and icetime the Islanders will give him this season. In addition to needing him to be a modified pest, if the Islanders could get an 18-20 goal contribution from Sim, it would go a long way.
Then there’s Tambellini, with his clean slate and two-year, one-way contract after what could best be described as a washout season at the NHL level. Above everything else, Tambellini is a goal scorer. Check this out: in 163 games in the AHL in his first three pro seasons from 2005-2008, he had 93 goals. That averages out to about two 45-goal seasons in the AHL. Is it unreasonable to project him scoring 20 for the Islanders this season?
If Tambellini can’t score 20 with all the chances he’ll get, it’s trouble. If he scores at least 20 – and Sim and Hunter come close to their marks – March is filled with big games and a lot of Adams Trophy talk about Scott Gordon.
Who do you think are the Islanders who must step up for them to have a shot at the playoffs? Step up to the Comments area.
9 Responses to NO PRESSURE, BOYS
The 3 Islanders Most Needed to Step Up
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We cant have any major injuries, and everyone must play to their potential (no off years), with reasonable expectations from the “kids”… and the Isles may make noise.
If everyone does what they’re “supposed” to do, we should be fine.
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Peter Rogers says:
I’ll add a name – Streit. If you can make the power play work thats an enormous plus – lets face it last year oft times I though we should take a cue from the NFL and decline the penalty. Trent Hunter as well. Hopefully a new regime will make him into the player he was becomming a few years ago ‘cos he sure lost his way the last 2 seasons.
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Darren says:
I love what you’re saying Chris. But I think you had a few too many at The Rock last night! This team will be lucky to finish 4th in the division. But with that said, I hope at least half of what you wrote comes true!
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michael says:
only one way that the islanders make the playoffs and thats if they stay HEALTHY all year. DP can’t get hurt, witt can’t get hurt, campoli HAS to come back soon and stay healthy, we need HEALTH all around..
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beatlebailey says:
Hunter did nothing to justify that contract last year. Hopefully the “overspeed” philosophy will impact hunter because he looked like a tortoise on ice last year
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Dmarie says:
This was a good read, Loving the side humor! It’s good to see wins (obviously)and it seems we finally have a foundation to work with and if what I’ve been reading about all comes to pass, then absolutely we can see a spot.
But I wouldn’t expect it this season, (sorry) it’s been my expirience from past years when a team rebuilds you usally don’t see a run for at least a season or two.
And I wont be to dissapointed so long as I see the guys doing their best. I’m always a fan, thru good & bad! I’ve been an Islander fan since the late 70′s -
kevin says:
if were gunna lose lets get tavares . but if everyone got 20 goals on offense which could happen cuz everyone can get that potentionally (sp) cept for sugden ( if he plays cuz hes not in the line-up tonight again ) and hilbert and weight ( get 20+ assists)
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Mike says:
I am not going to lie Botta, but the pictures you posted with the before RBK traditional photo makes me yearn that the Islanders would get rid of the awful jersey design they have right now!
Interesting scenario. I happen to expect these kind of numbers from all three. Hopefully it all adds up.
Tambellini – The Greek God of Goals?