THE VERY MODEL OF A MODERN REBUILD…
…is in Washington, not Pittsburgh
If the model for rebuilding the Islanders into a true contender at some point this century is the Pittsburgh Penguins organization, we might as well all call it a day.
The Penguins were awful for five consecutive seasons. They blew the good kind of chunks, the kind that get you…
The 5th overall pick in 2002 - Ryan Whitney
The first overall pick in 2003 - Marc-Andre Fleury
The 2nd overall pick in 2004 - Evgeni Malkin
The 2nd overall pick in 2006 - Jordan Staal
And still, beyond all that, it took the planets to be aligned and their number to be called in the weighted but league-wide lottery in 2005 for Sidney Crosby to finally get their new arena deal and become an Eastern powerhouse for the next decade.
If we’re waiting for that kind of tragic magic to happen here or anywhere else anytime soon, we’re kidding ourselves. In addition, let me put this delicately: I don’t think the Islanders have five straight years to be first-overall-pick bad.
So how about a more realistic model, like the Washington Capitals? After the lockout, Caps GM George McPhee stripped the payroll to the salary cap floor. The team and its fans had to suck it up and take the pain. Man, I remember working a game in their still-newish arena and calling out from the press box to a buddy. In a crowd of about 6,000 in that lovely 18,000-seat arena, he could hear me from across the rink. (Yes, I know…)
The Capitals are not there yet, but their revival last year was one of the NHL’s feel-good stories. Of course, the leading player is Alex Ovechkin, their prize for being bad in ‘03-04. They took Mike Green 29th overall the same year. Nicklas Backstrom (left) arrived in the draft two years later. Alexander Semin was drafted with one of Washington’s three first round picks in 2002 (at No. 13, between Steve Eminger and Boyd Gordon). Karl Alzner was taken 5th overall in ‘07.
Readers over the last few days have called for Garth Snow to acquire more draft choices between now and the trade deadline, but with what he will have to trade, I doubt the GM is going to get a bounty of picks. Snow got more to go from 5 to 7 to 9 in the first round in June than he’s likely going to get for any veterans he may unload in February.
The first major step of the rebuild took place at the ‘08 draft. Combine that haul with an impressive 2006 crop and all that’s missing - it’s a big one - is a true Ovechkian stud. Someone like Viktor Hedman. Okay, even if the Islanders are almost 20% of the way to clinching the first or second overall pick in 2009, it’s way too early to go there (or even think about the 2010 draft). Just like it’s pointless to consider the Penguins a legitimate model.
If you want to know how the Islanders can do it in a reasonable amount of time and without all the fairy dust, look to D.C.
That would be Hedman. Comments?
62 Responses to “THE VERY MODEL OF A MODERN REBUILD…
…is in Washington, not Pittsburgh”
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I don’t think we need five straight years of drafting either, but I’ll go a step further with the rebuilding. Almost every player on this team has had at least a stint in Bridgeport. Before Wang, we had the Utah Grizzlies (remember Mark Lawrence?) and they were never a permanent spot for our youngsters to develop and it hindered the Islanders. But since Bridgeport became a permanent place for our AHL team, they have had our prospects first, and the Islanders have finished a season no worse than 78 points. That’s a start. For all we know we may have already rebuilt with our prospects now after the last draft, who knows. The Sound Tigers are on top of the conference now. If we do get a top two pick next year and ANY of our 08 picks blossom into something more, then we have something.
If I only had faith in the brain-trust to pick the best overall player, I’d be right with ya’ CB.
I’ll take two years and hope we luck into Hedman this season and Bailey’s former, and hopefully future (for the rest of this season), teammate Taylor Hall next season. Plus add in the dream signing of Komisarik this off-season.
That will hopefully give this team a full number one line (Hall-Bailey-Okposo), a top d pair (Hedman-Komi) and a top 5 goaltender (Mannino).
OK kidding about that last one, but only if the injuries stop.
TAVARES!!!!!!!!!!!
Great post.
Tavares is the guy we need - any Islander fan that is a true fan has been following him and will continue following him until the end of the season - he could be the answer!!!!!!!! Unless of course Genius Garth wants to trade down again…
Chris, Hedman over Tavares? Last time I checked, this team needs goal scoring.
You make a lot of sense here.
While I agree that this team is in dire need of scoring let’s build from the net out. We are missing that true rock on the blueline who can single handedly settle the game down and start the rush the other way. Hedman would be that dman.
You HAVE to go with Tavares in this draft if you have the opportunity. This teams needs an All-Stat goal scorer, something they have lacked since Ziggy. Tavares will put butts in the seats and could help push the new arena deal. Hedeman is an AWESOME player as well but this team is in desperate need of a big time forward who will sell tickets and give this offense some pop!
Very interesting read, (again..love the humor!) I agree I say if we can nail anyone we get Tavares, I hear an read good things about him.
Enjoy your day everyone!
You must go with Tavares, this team needs to be put back on the hockey map. You use examples like the Caps, AO put that team back on the map. Not a top flight d-man, we MUST CHOOSE Tavares if we have the shot. Not doing so could be a final nail in the coffin.
You can’t go wrong either way with either Hedman or Tavares. Tavares will most likely develop into a franchise forward, Hedman most likely your cornerstone defenseman. Either of which you need to be a champion. With forwards, you have the potential of Okposo and Bailey, so drafting Hedman makes a little sense since there are no defensive studs in the organization, and there haven’t been for many years now. When it comes to drafting Hedman, think of it as drafting Potvin back in the beginning.
D-man are alot easier to get than a pure goal scorer-Tavares is the np brainer !!
if we’re drafting first, isles can’t go wrong with taveres or hedman. like kp said if you take taveres you have your franchise forward while if you take hedman you have your franchise d-man. can’t go wrong with either one.
Hedman is the consensus #1…..he could be just what we need.
assuming we get one of the first two picks…
If we have a good draft this year and get either Hedman or Tavares, next year we should start looking to sign (overpay) one or two young FAs. Streit was a great add for us this season and we need to suppliment the drafting with good signings like him. If we do this, I think we can be back in playoff contention by the 2010/2011 season.
hotstick, scouts are saying that hedman is the best defensive prospect since pronger. when was the last time the isles had a d-man of that caliber? potvin? franchise d-man are just as hard to aquire as franchise forwards are.
As if 99% of you proclaiming what the Isles should do have even watched either of those kids play even a single game! Youve seen a you tube clip or two and some stats- IF that! Come on.
id say draft Tavares , sign Komisarik, and trade Pock, Sillinger, Comrie, Weight, Guerin & any non 1st round picks we have in the 09 draft for Gaborik (if he would agree to an extention) and/or the chance to also draft Hedman …and bing up Comeau!!!
Great post, as always CB. To be completely fair all-around, it would be great to finish last in the league overall, that way we are guaranteed either the number one or number two pick overall. However, if available, I think our first selection should be Tavares. I agree that defense wins championships, it’s just that I find myself wanting a dynamic, exciting, perennial all-star forward talent wearing the Isles jersey and lighting up opposing goaltenders. This is what brings fans into the seats, and that is something we need desperately! Hedman will be a cornerstone defenseman, and is already called the “next Nicklas Lidstrom,” however, a team like us needs the next “Sidney Crobsy” in John Tavares to fill the seats. The Lighthouse Plan is priority here, in my opinion. Plus, I find that great teams are built with four solid centers, and to be honest, I would not mind our four centers of the future being Tavares, Bailey, Nielsen, and Park, even Nate Thompson as a fourth line center. Those four down the middle would do great things, and each line would be extremely effective in all three zones. Either way, I’d be happy, but I think Tavares first for the entertainment factor.
PS - Note to Snow: Get Komisarek. I can only imagine how much teams would hate to see Komisarek and Witt on the same defensive pairing.
You take Taveres and sign Komisarick
Chris - the probably dont know what place the Soundtigers are in either - go ahead and tell ‘em!
and Eric Nystrom!!!
Chris, you are correct about the method for rebuilding as the Penguins are an extreme case. But the fact remains this team must hit on the first round pickss it has. I realize it is too early to say that Okposo is a bust, but we would have been better off with Peter Mueller in 2006. I won’t even go as far back as to say that Parise over Nilsson was a no brainer in 2003, or that the Ryan O’Marra pick in 2005, or Nokelainen pick in 2004 were bad. My point is that other than Rick DiPietro and Sean Bergenheim this team has not drafted even remotely well in the first round which is where you get your impact players for the most part. Teams like Philly (Carter, Richards) and Anaheim (Perry, Penner, Getzlaf) hit on their mid to low first round picks and are better for it.
I have a hard time with this team because they just don’t draft well. I’m committed to the rebuild for the next few years and I’m praying that the team gets either the 1 or 2 pick this year and if you gave me the choice, I’d rather have the #2 so as to not have to choose either Tavares or Hedman but pick the one that is available. I’m scared to death that this organization is going to trade that pick because we all know a ton of offers will be made.
By the way, Brian Burke just stepped down in Anaheim and is looking for an east coast team to work for. I’m just saying.
I hate talking about the draft with 60 more games to be played. We can talk about it in February. I just looked at the standings and as bad as we have played the 1st 2 months of the season we are only 6 points out of a playoff spot. This without our #1 netminder and our top 2 defensemen. Anything is possible. Let’s Go Isles!!!
NYI 365:
Oh man, do I wish we could have the first and second overall, it would be an instant rebuild in a single day! To be honest, in order to have the opportunity to land both the first and second overall picks in this years draft, we’d need to take a gamble on trading with either Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Florida. We must also keep our eyes on other potential defensemen as well. Jared Cowen, the number three projected pick right now, is also considered to be a top-flight defenseman, and someone who will be an all-star in this league for many years to come. If we could land two picks in the top three (a dream come true), we could take two out of three in Tavares (C), Hedman (D) , Cowen (D). In order to land someone elses top pick, we’d most likely have to give up Okposo and our first, so I doubt Snow is even wasting his time on that. Unless one of those teams wants Guerin, Comrie, Weight, and a 2nd round pick for their first round pick, I doubt we even have a chance at landing him. It would be wiser to find playoff teams that need depth, and try to pry a first rounder out of them for the service of one of those players. That way, we can have multiple first rounders in a draft that has first round talent well into the late second round.
I’m with you Dan. Too early to talk about the draft when this Team still is showing signs of developing. Fortunately/unfortunately I’m still sure this Team will not get the 1st two picks.
This is a 2nd half team, when everyone gets the system and are on the same page. If Gordon is as good of a coach as most think he is (I have my doubts), then he won’t lose his squad and will be able to motivate beyond a dismal 1st half.
CB has the right tone on this article (again). Years of bad teams and getting top draft picks does not guarantee an eventual successful team and it is not a good rebuilding plan, especially for this franchise.
Chris or shall I say obe one kenobi. Great article, makes a ton of sense. If given the opporunity to draft either player, I believe you need to select the Tavares for reasons mentioned in other comments. A new rink by itself won’t put fans in the seats. A dynamic player (forward) is needed. A player that fans know now…ala Crosby. I like Baily but look at the reaction from the fans when we didn’t select Filatov this year. I’m not saying it wasn’t the right move, I’m saying that Isle fans became very attached to him because we all did our research. This team does have a bright future if the cards are played right. Snow needs to be patient and not pull off a knee jerk reaction trade involving our youth. Ride the wave…..it will end on a nice sunny beach. Play the wave…you’ll end up face first in a cliff. (I just made that up….I should be writing the messages that appear on the bottom of calenders). With all that said, first move….Fire Snow…..hire Chris Botta. Cheers
Don’t jump in front of moving train, you might get hurt. Lets wait until the season near end, then will talk.
Hedman or Taveras I don’t care as long as Snow if in the position to get one of them does and doesn’t get stupid like last draft day and start moving down in the draft. Take the stud d man or forward and move along.
If you want to make some noise move a 2 and 3 and get another mid 1st rounder. Last year they should have taken Schenn for our cornerstone d man and we wouldn’t be having this conversation but Snow has to get cute and take a flyer on a guy ranked 10th in most books. At least I would have been happy w/ Bodekker at 7th but somehow he messed that up to.
Great post Chris — and the Capitals think so too, as it’s one of six articles listed in the “Must Read/See/Hear” section of the team’s CAPS TODAY e-newsletter.
First of all, I agree 110% that the Pittsburgh model is unrealistic and that if the Isles keep it up, the first pick is defintley a possibility this year. I don’t get how you can take Hedman over Tavares though, Chris. Tavares has been tearing it up in the OHL and if the Isles pass him up or trade down again than I’m done with this team.
If the Islanders finish with the number one pick, you have to take Tavares! Hedman might be a great d-man, but this team needs scoring. They have plenty of D prospects right now: Ness, Katic, Hamonic,Niemi, and Kohn as well as other younger guys on the team already: Campoli, Gervais. This team needs an exciting, young guy who can score goals like Tavares can to bring this team back.
The Caps plan is great-IF we 1- make the right draft selections and 2- we happen to be fortunate enough to draft that player who you can pencil in as an All Star for 10 straight years.
What the Isles could do is be a great organization that doesn’t have to become bad in order to become good. Be like the Devils, like the Wings? How many first overall picks have these team had?
The Islanders have been awful for almost two decades. Now they need five more years to rebuild? It’s a joke.
If we end up with the #1, tavares makes too much sense. He will get tixx selling, he is a marketing bonanza for the franchise and he’s a goal scorer, exactly what this franchise needs. If we get the second, we simply take whoever falls of the 2. just finnish last and we are guarenteed one or the other. I won’t be dissapointed either way, but Tavares is my number 1. I don’t care what record it is, if you break a record formerly held by Gretzky, there’s something to it.
How do we know that the 06 draft is impressive? Oksopo really hasn’t done anything yet; while players after him like Mueller are playing great. As for the others, until they get to the NHL and play and contribute, I’m not going to call them impressive. Remember Kudroc, Mazei, Pyatt, Weinhandl et al. from that draft when those kids were 18-19 and the Isles told us we were set for a decade?
As for the 08 draft, when exactly are Toews, Trivino and Neiss going to make a contribution to their respective teams?
The interesting thing to note about the teams and picks you mentioned in your post is, all of those players are still with both teams.
Here are the Isles 1st round picks since 2000: DiPietro, Torres (CLB), Bergenheim, Nilsson (EDM), Nokelainen (BOS), O’Marra (Edmonton), Okposo, and Bailey.
The drafting of DiPietro first overall set this team back God knows how many years. DP is a good goaltender and could one day be a great goaltender, but the bigger issue was, the Isles did not need him. They had Roberto Luongo! To then ship him off, along with Olli Jokinen for 2nd- and 3rd-line wingers is as incomprehensible today as it was then.
Had they used that first pick on, say, Dany Heatley, then maybe Milbury doesn’t feel the pressure to trade for a top line center, and instead keeps that second-overall pick in 2001 (and Chara), selecting Jason Spezza.
A team built around Luongo, Heatley, Chara, Spezza, and Jokinen, would have been sick.
Instead, Milbury’s incomprehensible draft day moves just continue to make us all sick.
If we wound up with the #2 pick in the draft I’d be VERY happy with whichever guy we were left with. However, if I had to choose, I have to go with Tavares. The smarter pick is probably Hedman, however with the current state of the organization and the arena deal, that pick would have to fire up the fanbase. I think Islander fans would be excited for Hedman, but I think they’d be in a frenzy if we got Tavares. That’s what we need to get this arena done and keep this team on LI.
I agree that it takes a great amount of luck (or suckitude) to consistently get a top 5 pick for 5 consecutive years, so, yes the Caps would be a way for the Isles to go. As a Penguins fan for 25 years, I am very excited about where the franchise is now. When they were sucking recently(2002), I was hoping things could turn around. When they were winning consistently back in the 90s, there were a few teams that I KNEW would be good in time. And those teams followed the same rebuilding plan as the Pens. Those two were the Senators and the Avalanche (Nordiques). Both of those franchises were horrible for the longest time, and if the management would have had patience in Quebec, they would still be there instead of Denver. But, that’s 3 teams who’ve gotten lucky with the draft. Is it possible the Isles could be so lucky? Yes. Would management be willing to wait? Who knows.
Simply put, Kenny Jonsson didn’t put butts in seats. He was solid and very good, but Ziggy put the butts in. Hedman won’t Tavares will. I will not say that dealing Spezza was a mistake, the franchise needed something to get us going and Yashin did us well for a few years (You know you would take him over comrie) we just need to take Tavares. I drive my wife nuts cheering at losses, and hoping for wins at the same time.
I agree w/picking Hedman. The Isles already have Jeff Tambellini, they need to concentrate on Defense.
There is only one road the Islanders can take in restoring this franchise to respectability: Smart Drafting Avenue. I agree with Chris that we can’t afford to follow the Penguins (although it’s something we should have done long ago) because this organization cannot sustain another 5 years of ineptitude. So, as it stands, the Islanders are on the right path, but there is still a lot of work to be done.
I agree w/picking Hedman. The Isles already have Jeff Tambellini, they need to concentrate on Defense
This is the most rediculous statement ever. Tambellini has done nothing, and quite honestly- in all likelyhood will not be the player he is in the ahl. Tavares has been breaking records set by gretzky. I will take my chances with Tavares - thank you very much. Saying we already have tambellini only furthurs this teams ineptitude to score goals.
Not 1 person comes to a hockey game to see a defenceman…play d or add some occasional offense ! People are drawn to Offense .Anyone in the league would take a guy like Crosby or OV over any DMAN in the league.Who would be more exciting to watch?If we get lucky enough to get Taveres,how can u pass?
Would this be a good time to mention that Justin DiBenedetto (”Dibo”) was named the OHL Player of the Month, according to the Sarnia Sting website?
Angry Petes Brother: I cant be certain but I think that statement was made in jest.
I didn’t get the impression Garth wanted the rebuild to take that long (5 yrs+). Let’s hope “his plan” is solid and also that he has a bit of Irish luck.
it doesnt matter for me because both are amazing but if we got schenn then tavares would be a no brainer but since we didnt, i do not know.i say rebuilding will last 2 more years. we got number one this year and next year we get number 3 then four then 13 then 30 gee hee. maybe not thirty but the rest arent far off
a successful rebuild will take 2 years minimum…maybe 3….with the full benefit about 5 years out.
Wang ought to wake up and throw the kitchen sink at BURKE and make him the team president. He would keep help mentor snow and jankowski while increasing visibility of the franchise from a free agent standpoint. He would add some credibility to say the least.
For what it’s worth– and to be clear, it’s worth nothing– if someone held a gun to my head and said pick one, I’d opt for Hedman, who appears to be a Chris Pronger-Nik Lidstrom hybrid.
But since no one is holding a gun to my head and also since I have no say in who the Isles pick, I’m going to wait until Tavares’s season is finished before deciding. Reports after last season was that his game had slipped a bit, that he seemed almost burned out. So while he could be the next great franchise center, he could also be Alexander Daigle. All the more reason to see how he makes out this season.
hedman is 6 foot 6 and in the swedish mens leaugue he had 2 goals and 2 assists in 34 games i beleive so its hard for me to see the offensive production in him but i say we have a better chance of signing someone like komiserek or JBO then gaborik this offseason so that why i choose tavares but either way its a win win situation
o and who is to say hedman or cowen or little shenn is not the next daigle is could be any first overall. or they could be like DP. amazing but always hurt
last for now , angry pete, i wouldnt ind it but he may go to toronto even though joe `newyendyk (sp) is supposed to go there. i dont know if i want him now because i want to rebuild but he would be a very good addition to this org.
UH!! FORGET THE 6 foot 6 part above. i was gunna say something but lost my thought. i think if there is an offensicve upside, hell be more like chara.
Someone apparently tackled the Tavares-Hedman debate about a week ago. This is worth a read:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/78630-nhl-who-will-go-first-in-next-years-draft
The Penguins model also requires that the franchise go bankrupt and have to fight its way out of its finacial mess in a building with zero extra revenue sources. Given what Mario Lemiuex and Craig Patrick had to deal with its amazing there is even a team in Pittsburgh let alone one that was a goalpost away from a seventh game last year.
I am not sold on the Washington model. This is year four of the process and they have one playoff appearence to show for it. Their defensive liabililtes are still big and goaltending sieve-like. There is still much to do and if the cap does go down next season they are stuck in a no lands land where they don’t ahve enough to win and have too much to get the next lottery pick they need.