THE GUERIN DISCUSSION CONTINUES…
Following up your Comments on the captain column
My response to some of the more than 100 Comments on today’s Bill Guerin column, aka an excuse for me to try to make a few more points.
- To be certain, if the Islanders are offered a first round pick for Doug Weight, an almost 38-year old player they astutely signed last summer to a one-year deal, they will make the trade. Do I think the Islanders can get a first round pick for Weight? No. Weight plus a B player or prospect? No.
- To clarify, no one is thinking Guerin and Weight have all of a sudden become Sons of Long Island on their way to seven-season, Eddie Westfall-like runs. Bill and Doug certainly are not pretending that. I regard this as a season-by-season matter, weighing their value to the Islanders vs. their value to other teams in trades. Cold, but realistic.
- I would not get all worked up over the Islanders 2009-10 depth chart at center, with or without Weight. I know at 12-25-4 there’s not much going on right now, but I wouldn’t worry about where all the icetime is going to come from next season. If the Islanders end up with 29 centers – Weight, Bailey, Nielsen, Comrie, Thompson, little Johnny Tavares and on and on - I’m sure they’ll work it out.
- Garth Snow cannot – and I’m certain will not – factor a ping pong ball bouncing in the Islanders’ favor into his planning for ’09-10. Whether he ends up with any part of Tavheduch, he can’t even think about reserving a spot on his board for them between now and at least March 4. First time it may be safe is the night of the draft lottery.
- As much as I’ve written about Tavares, Hedman, Duchene and others, it’s way too early to think about John Tavares being an Islander. Not when the Islanders still have 41 games left this season. Not when the Islanders would have to finish the season 30th in the league and then have a lottery go their way. The Islanders lost Ilya Kovalchuk. They could lose another one. Happens all the time in the NHL. That’s why there’s a weighted lottery. It wouldn’t be bad luck. It would be the system working.
- Personally, I’d be more than okay with Vic Hedman – I feel like we can call him Vic now – or Matt (no S) Duchene. And besides, both of them might be better fits in the system (insert Andrew Dice Clay “OHHHH!”)
- The Islanders’ most valued players at the trade deadline could very well be Mike Comrie and Brendan Witt.
- To those who think the Islanders will be able to package some combo of second round picks and average players or prospects to get another selection in the top 20 of the first round, respectfully – keep on dreaming. And let’s hope nobody – especially Islanders management – gets too caught up in the value of the 25th overall pick. Call it a precious first rounder all you want. No matter how you look at it, it’s still just six picks before the 31st.
- For those readers dying to trade Guerin for a second round pick, I’ve crafted a future news story. It’s just one example of how it could turn out.
August 17, 2014: Per-Erik Halitosis, one of the Islanders’ 7 second round picks in the 2009 NHL Draft, has left the game of hockey due to lack of interest from other teams. The Islanders acquired the pick at the trade deadline in 2009 in return for captain Bill Guerin. Instead of having Guerin around for another season or two to score 25 goals, stand up for coach Scott Gordon’s controversial style of play, serve as a mentor to top prospects and make and take calls from free agents about Long Island’s NHL franchise, the Islanders got Halitosis.
All in good fun, folks. All in good fun.
Comments to my comments. And what do you say: shall we go live for Thursday’s game?
45 Responses to THE GUERIN DISCUSSION CONTINUES…
Following up your Comments on the captain column
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Rick says:
You nailed it with this one Chris. Per-Erik Halitosis – love it!
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Great points — especially since some (I think) misunderstood the last column.
I do not expect Weight to fetch anyone’s first-rounder and so would gently pursue re-signing him, BUT: Wait ’till the deadline — after all, Don Waddell is still employed, and the trade deadline does funny things to this league’s motley crew of GMs…
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marcus says:
I believe that if the Islanders get an offer for Dough Wieght Snow should entertain it. What are the chances of Comeau getting dealt? Is he in the clear?
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Dally Mac says:
I’m so confused I don’t know what I want now. So basically we have the same team coming back next year except with maybe Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Cowen or Schenn. Fine! Bring on Taylor Hall in 2010. Wouldn’t hurt my feelings.
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Matt says:
Great read Chris! Love the “future story”, excellent! There are quite a few second round picks that do turn out quite good though. We can build up our defense corps with some big bruising defenseman which seem to be available in the second round. There are some seconds that pan out. The one that comes to mind right now is Doug Weight himself!
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kevin says:
i want taylor hall on the island so badly. he is the best player in the ohl right now ( last i checked) and him and whoever we pick this year are going to get this place back on the map. when is march 4th going to get herre! and then june 20th and then july 1
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I just wrote an article similar to Erik Halitosis’, it’s on the Bleacher Report. Here is the link:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/107782-the-price-of-loyalty-weight-and-guerin-should-stay-on-the-islandI think that the Isles are better off keeping both of them, whichever way the draft lottery goes.
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Willis says:
YES!!!!!!!! GO LIVE!!!!!!!
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Larry says:
Never under estimate the value of the 25th overall pick here are the last 10 not including 07(too early)
1997-Bredan Morrow
1998-Jiri Fischer
1999-Mickal Kulshov
2000-Steve Ott
2001-Alex Perezhogin
2002-Cam Ward
2003-Anthony Stewart
2004-Rob Schremp
2005-Andrew Cogliano
2006-Patrik Berglund -
Strummer's Army says:
Great post Larry. This is an especially good draft year so yes, if the Isles can get more picks as high as possible they should do so. They restocked in 2 of the past 3 years so it becomes mroe about quality then quantity at this point.
Snow needs to make darn sure the Isles don’t mess things up with the draft lotto by getting on a little and meaningless winning streak. If he see’s that happening it is time to start dumping vets.
The Isles coudl with the improved play of the rookies, guys like Sutton, Neilsen and DiPietro getting healthy but must have 1 of the top two picks.
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ISLESFAN999 says:
I disagree. I would prefer to trade guerin for a prospect than a pick. Take a pretty good prospect whose close to nhl ready.
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just a quick look at the ohl stats
http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/stats/statdisplay.php?type=top_scorers
isnt it cool that these three may be islanders the way it is going. tavares this year. hall next year. reality: prob not hall. 80% chance tavares. cant beleive DIBI is really number two granted he didnt go to the WJC’s -
isles99 says:
i still respectfully disagree and think we should trade the vets. i mean guerin’s 25 goals this and year and next will be meaningless. In addition, dumping the vets will enhace the chances of the isles finishing 30th which would garuntee us tavres OR hedman. as for your question CB: with the resounding success of the san jose game live chat, of course we should go live! That’s not even a question worth asking.
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doc says:
Larry:
The problem with your list is this: Other than Jiri Fischer – would you really want any of those guys OVER Doug Weight?
And besides… your missing the point by pointing out the “25th” pick.
It was meant as an illustration of the uncertainty of what you get at that point in the draft.
Sometimes a bird in the hand is worth way more than 2 in the bush… (showing my age with that one…)
DOC
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And before I get jumped on… I am talking about Jiri Fischer as in what he might have been… had he not been stricken, unfortunately, with the cardiovascular issues.
DOC
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would i want those guys for years over doug weight for 2 years tops? hell yeah.
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CT Isles Fan says:
CB- This stuff is why people religiously check your blog. Keep up the GREAT work.
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and I mean RELIGIOUSLY
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rb says:
CB, you’re right and wrong on the packaging of 2d round picks for a low first rounder…no you wouldn’t get that deal done now…but yes, it could get done and be effective on draft day depending on who slips down to that spot and whether Isles like a particular guy more than the team picking in that spot or have a need for a certain type of player available that the other team has already filled and sees more value by dropping down..happens all the time
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Mikko Makela says:
OK, so he’s got a ‘no move’ clause. Last I looked, the Rangerks play in New York also. Being that they are joined at the hip, how far-fetched is Weight AND Guerin for Prucha and a 3rd?
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Adam M. says:
Mikko, to answer your question. VERY far fetched. Prucha is fodder on the Rangers. What future does he have anywhere, let alone here?
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Larry says:
Doc, I would love to have Morrow,Ward, Cogliano, Berglund over Weight, 1st of all they are just better now, and Doug Weight might enjoy a great season this year, and with the same uncertainty you get with a late 1st round pick, you get with a the 38 year old center, but at least the pick has plenty of upside. weight can revert back to last years stats and be done after this year.
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streit 02 says:
The Isles need to keep Weight and Guerin. They are exactly what the team, the coach and the franchise needs. You need veteran guidance on a team that is full of a bunch of kids and i dont think there are 2 better guys in the NHL right now that fit that mold “for the Islanders”. The Isles should trade Comrie and Witt. Both should have more trade value than Guerin & Weight anyway. Saddens me to say this b/c Witt has been my fav. Islander since hes been here, but he simply does not fit anymore and is not coming close to resembling the player he was a year ago.
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IMO a guy the Isles should take a look at, who i think should be available is Gilbert Brule. His style should certainly fit our system well.
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Nice responses, Chris.
But, soon enough there will be dozens of comments ignoring the existence of the NMC and what youve said today, explaining how the Isles should just “trade guerin” and asking you what teams are interested. Just all it a gut feeling lol! -
Neil says:
Jan. 7th, 2014 – Islanders forward Johnny Canuck was named to his 2nd All-Star game joining Isles centers Matt Duchene and Josh Bailey today. Canuck was obtained with the 54th pick overall in the 2009 draft when the Islanders traded Bill Guerin to New Jersey at the trade deadline in ’09.
“I loved Bill Guerin and everything he gave us,” Garth Snow said at the time. “But his tank was empty and it was affecting his ability to provide the intangible quality we wanted for the kids at the time. Signing Doug Weight to the one-year extension at the time made a difference in making the tough move.”
Canuck was originally supposed to be a top-10 selection, but plummeted in the draft when it was learned he was actually from Hoboken, NJ. -
I still believe it’s way too early to even talk trade rumors, or where we land in the draft. A lot of people are going to be really disappointed if the Islanders actually play better the next 40 games or so and they lose out on the top two picks. Don’t try to speculate now on what we should or shouldn’t get for players. It might like a headache now, but could be a migraine later.
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Mike from Queens says:
Netminder39:
Agreed. The Isles have actually looked better recently (I think)–the offense is generating some chances and keeping things somewhat competitive. If one of the goalies and get it together and make some saves, with some much needed improvement on the defense in front of them, the Isles might actually pick up a few points.
I’m pretty sure Weight, Guerin, Witt, Park, Comrie, and Gordon didn’t enter this season willing to lose, and I’m sure this hasn’t changed. If you asked any of those guys what the most important thing would be this season, not a single one, even OFF the record, would even hint at draft position.
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UIF says:
I can’t figure why so many of the “Garth Snow was right on draft day because it’s crucial to have as many picks as possible” people are now supporting, “Draft picks don’t always pan out so we should keep an aging vet for a meaningless year instead.”
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West Coast Fan says:
Did I sense a bit of a knock on “little” Taveras who might not fit in well with the Isles system? What’s up with that?
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CB your comment of maybe Tavares not being the right fix for this system made me think of when Dennis Potvin became the top defenseman in the league. Watching Hedman in the WJC and the excellent passes he was doing in the offensive zone reminded me of Potvin. Personally, I don’t think this team could go wrong with Hedman as our first pick.
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Talent like Tavares will always fit this system WEST COAST! Don’t worry about the swipe at him. There was a bit of a knock on his skating but that is just because they are trying to find something to knock since he has been slotted to go #1 overall for years. Even after the WJC’s they had to admit his skating was vastly improved and he looked very strong on his skates. Trust me if the Isles are in positon to draft him they will and should draft him. They say Gordon’s system is based on skating that is what the comment was about. If you watched WJC he is a fine skater, much better then several guys on the Isles and he is still developing.
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admin says:
Guys, the thing about Hedman and Duchene maybe being a better fit for the system was tongue-in-cheek. I even threw in the “Dice” thing to make it clear I was joking…CB
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If Taveras is not right for the “system” then I am not a fan of the system. In essence what I am saying is if a exciting, PROBABLY amazing young player is not right for our team than fix our team or our “system” because it is broken. If Andy Hilbert types is what this team will only be comprised of someone can have my tickets cause I’m done. I mean think about it what are we saying here? I don’t like where this is going its almost cultish!!!! Screw Gordon if a “taveras” type player doesn’t suit his system. I could just imagine Garth explaining that one on the screen at the draft party!!!!
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Caught that after you posted CB, sorry. I thought you meant it that way but after reading the other posts I thought I was wrong! LOL!!
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21 Mikko Makela on Jan 7th, 2009 18:35:45 said:
“OK, so he’s got a ‘no move’ clause. Last I looked, the Rangerks play in New York also. Being that they are joined at the hip, how far-fetched is Weight AND Guerin for Prucha and a 3rd?”
HOW far-fetched? Ridiculously so. There is a 0.0% chance of that even being considered. A no movement clause doesnt mean you dont move where you live so they can trade you to other teams in the area, it means that you dont move to a different team- at all. It doesnt matter if the Rags are in NY.Additonally, the Isles will NOT be making any trades with the Rags- at all. Of that I am quite certain!
West Coast Fan on Jan 7th, 2009 20:15:52 said:
“Did I sense a bit of a knock on “little” Taveras who might not fit in well with the Isles system? What’s up with that?”LOL, wow… people are already feeling the need to ‘defend’ this kid- the real question is whats up with THAT!!!
I cant believe how attached some people are getting to a kid who has nothing whatsoever to do with this organization.
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Islanders1984 says:
CB do you know if there is any truth to the rumor that the KHL is suffering financially.
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Not a comment about Comrie. Trade him while has has any value what so ever.
I would like to see Dougie and Billy back next season as Nielsen,OK,Tamby,Comeau,Bergy, etc.
I would love to see them traded with 15 games left in the season and bring them back as a “gentleman’s agreement”. I could live with each of them playing one more season here. If you have watched the games this year there really is no disputing that.
Comrie is useless and I would take a right handed stick for him. -
Original Rob says:
August 18, 2014: Isles’ General Manager Mitch Fritz responds to criticism over one of the team’s four 2nd round picks in the 2009 entry draft leaving the game of hockey: “The thing is”, Fritz says, “if we didn’t have that abundance of 2nd round picks, we would have never been in the position to draft ‘Puts’ (current Isles scoring leader Vladimir Putinokov) in the second round”. Putinokov was widely regarded as a top-5 talent that year, but slipped to the second round because of fears of a lack of a transfer agreement between the NHL and the now-defunct KHL.
Even though Garth ‘Smartest Guy In The Room’ Snow and his supposed super-scout Ryan Jankowski have loaded the cupboard with untold numbers of stud prospects, I still wouldn’t mind having a few extra picks in the ever-so-slight chance that Mr. Snow and Mr. Jankowski might swing and miss on a pick or two.
The farm needs re-stocking, and with these geniuses at the helms, I’ll take as many dice-rolls as we can get.
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Westfall says:
Chris – outstanding, I agree with all of your points on that one. We need some vets to mentor and take pressure of the youngsters. Weight and Guerin aren’t what they used to be, but the bottom-line is that they are our two most productive forwards right now. They also bring tremendous leadership skills and WANT to be here on LI. Snow himself said its hard to recruit free agents….are we going to sign two vets over the summer better than Doug and Billy? If some GM is crazy enough to offer a 1st Rd pick or blue-chip prospect, then Garth has to consider it, but I would have no problem with extending either of them through next year.
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Swan says:
Scary good comments, C.B.
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Steve-O says:
Thank you, Chris again for your always astute insight, but let’s cut to the chase.
Guerin is extremely valuable to this team and will continue to be so as a player, mentor and ambassador. But the harsh reality is that if the team has a better chance of finishing last without him he has to go. Tavares would potentially be leading this team (and saving the franchise)for 15-20 years and the chance of that should not be jeopardized because Guerin is such a good guy. Ditto for all of the other veterans save DP. I know most would like to say “What? Not Streit?” but if you want to talk about getting value back, he is our guy!
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JayK says:
I seriously doubt you are going to trade Weight AND Guerin in the same deal. A team that would need to trade for both players is a team like us: a bad one. You trade for Weight to fill a hole, you trade for Guerin to fill a hole, but if you need to trade for both, you’re probably in shouting distance of the lottery already.
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redz says:
Per-Erik Halitosis, haven’t heard of him or seen him in the WJC, what team is he with – sounds like a real gem! Is he related to Andrew Dice Clay?
CB, you’re a great hockey writer!
you don’t sensationalize to “sell papers” and you’re extremely good at putting things in prooper perspective and setting expectations for oft-crazy fans.
please keep it up.
You hit cork with that one!