THE POINT BLANK POLL
% chance NYI play .500 rest of the way
Seriously. Not kidding. Really, is it so crazily out of the realm of possibility?
(I can hear Baumbach and Rieber: YESSSSSSS!)
The Islanders have 35 games left. It’s garbage time. The team can play loose. Historically in the NHL, teams like this are dangerous down the home stretch. Teams sell off players at the deadline, everyone thinks they’ll only get worse - they only get better. Remember the March when Yashin centered Nilsson and Bergenheim and those guys were money?
I want a percentage. 80%. 50%. 33%. 0%. Whatever. None of this 9/2 or 5/1 odds stuff.
After you say what’s the percentage chance of the Islanders playing .500 hockey the rest of the way, give your prediction for their record the final 35 games.
I say the Islanders have a 33% chance of playing .500 for the remainder of the season. But if I had to guess their record in these last 35 games, I’m predicting 13-17-5. (You’d think 26-46-10 would get them the shot at Tavares or Hedman with the first or second pick).
That’s correct: I’m predicting that the team that has won 13 of its first 47 will now win 13 of its final 35. I really don’t think that’s such a high bar to set.
Do you?
Your % and 35-game prediction in Comments. Only one post per reader.
103 Responses to “THE POINT BLANK POLL
% chance NYI play .500 rest of the way”
Please Wait
7 wins. 5%. AHL goalies do not get better as the season progresses.
10% chance of them going .500
the record? 8-23-4
Thinking the this teams best hockey is ahead of them as the season goes on we will see this team play better together as long as they can stay healthy. I will say 16-12-7….Injuries will be the biggest factor…
I’m going to say there’s a 25% chance of them going .500 the rest of the way, at best. Although I do completely agree with you, CB. Teams like this have a tendency to play pretty well after the All-Star break. I think March 4th will play a big part in this though…Only time will tell.
I’ll say 9-19-7 the rest of the way.
25% chance of playing .500 But the team will do a repeat of the Philadelphia Eagles who in 1968 won 2 of the last 3 games to miss out drafting OJ Simpson. They got Leroy Keyes.
15% chance of going .500 with these goalies. However, I think the Big Four young guys (Okposo, Nielsen, Bailey, and Comeau) will continue to improve their offensive production.
Record: 11-20-4
40%….14-17-4
15-15-5. teams gets a little better as young players develop and those who don’t want to play overspeed are dealt off.
Chris it must be a real slow news day. Wow, wanting us to predit what % the Isles have on finishing 50% the last 40% of the season. I predict they have a 27% chance of staying on Long Island if we do not get Tavares.
10% chance of .500, I’m thinking 12-18-5 for last 35 games with most of those wins occuring just before and after the trade deadline.
zero % chance of them going .500
and the record over the next 35 will be 4-23-8
20% chance that they’ll play .500.
10-20-5 in the final 35 games.
Not sure if the kids can produce enough offense, and Kyle Okposo will have to score if the team wants to win. I think depending who gets hot in goal may also depend on the amount of wins.
have no argument about the loose playing style. I think the young guys will get better but I just dont think that Danis and Mac will hold up the fort. I think th egames will be closer. but 8 more wins should do it I guess
5% chance of playing .500 in the second half. I understand what you are trying to point out CB-historically you are correct. Young teams play harder and get better near the end and this team has a chance to do that. Good playoff caliber teams take teams like us for granted and play their backup goaltender and it could result in a few wins. But the problem is that this team has TOO many flaws-not enough goal scoring, defense, AND goaltending to play THAT well. Let’s face it if we can’t score goals now then what happens when you take away our best offensive players in Weight, Guerin, Comrie. I say we finish with 22 wins. That should be good enough for last. I’d be suprised if someone finishes worse
It’s a 100% fersure that Rieber and Baumbach have been much kinder to the Isles of late.
45% chance they go .500
12-15-8
lose a bunch in OT,
I don’t see the Isles winning more than 20 games this season. There’s nothing about their play that would make me think they’ll be better the 2nd half. The last homestand and road trip were awful. They only beat the Ducks, and were outplayed in that game.
CB- I went though the schedule and thought the same thing 13-17-5…the bottom line in the race for last is this, lets look at it like a playoff spot-their 8 points behind with two games in hand…Do I think they can pass the thrashers? possibly, but I also feel that Waddell will try and add a piece in the next 10 days to try and make a run. He can say he wants Tavares but I have to believe if they finish last and tank he will be out of a job.
Isles will finish last with a 47% chance of getting JT.
0% chance, 10-23-2
20%. I’m guessing they’ll go 10-17-8 in this stretch.
C.B, as much as I hate seeing this team lose, right now we are in such desperate need of Tavares or as a consolation prize Hedman. Let them grab a top pick and work towards next season. I see this team winning maybe 10 of their final 35 games.
25%
How about this since the islanders are in last place and Ottawa and Atlanta are 8 pts from the bottom, do we really want the islanders to start winning!
What if Ottawa and Atlanta starting losing!
We need to keep our eye on Tavares, isn’t that why we have a youth movement.
I would give them a 30% chance for the rest of the season. Think they’ve been on the losing end of too many 1 goal games and that might start turning around as the kids’ confidence and production goes up. Think they are all going to start fighting for a spot on the roster for next year starting tonight. As far as the rest goes thinking the record will be 13-18-4
Maybe a 10% chance. .
12 - 20 - 3 to finish out.
A steak dinner to whomever comes the closest, CB?
I think there is a 80% chance myself. I think we will finally get over all the injuries, and the kids will start to step up there game with the added responsibility. 16-16-3
5% chance. . .i mean you do know we have a second rate backup goalie as our starter, a third rate backup goalie as our number 2, no scorers at the port and a 19 year old in over his head that will be getting big minutes right? not to mention half the teasm will be out with injury during that time. cmon man, ELEVEN wins is probably ambitious but as for a 50% chance that’s the best i can do.
What, no prize for whomever comes closest? Something small, like an all-expenses paid trip to Montreal to see the Isles draft Tavares or Hedman?
Chance the Isles play .500 or better hockey in their final 35 games: 0%
Chance the Isles play .500 or better hockey after the trade deadline: 25%
Predicted record over the final 35 games: 9-24-2, for a total record of 22-43-7, 51 points, 30th overall.
30 percent.
I think they’ll be 9-21-5 or something like that.
The Isles have a 0% chance of playing .500 in the final 35 games.
11-21-3 for the rest of the season, which brings the Isles to a final record of 24-50-8 (56 points). This will be good for last in the league, and thus lead to the first or second overall pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.
I think if Atlanta finishes last- Don Waddell will be canned. Atlanta will probably be about 5-7 points better than us, and it all starts tonight…
I’d say about 5% chance of them going .500
Sorry to say I’ll be surprised if they win 6 or 7 in the last 35.
Its tough… I think they will have a decent chance of going .500 IF they are relatively healthy. After all, they did better than .500 in November when they were somewhat healthy. The question is whether they will actually BE relatively healthy. Ill make a guess and say that they may have healthier times ahead (a big leap, I know…) and Ill therefore say they have a 40% chance of going .500 from this point forward.
This team has no chance of going .500 because they are going .531, 17-15-3. That’s right over .500 the rest of the way. Only because it’s the Isles luck to be good when we need them to be bad. They will be the 2nd to worst team in the league and start trading down. We will try to be like the Blackhawks, draft Evander Kane, and have our version of Toews and Kane.
zero percent. Bottom line, we do not have a NHL caliber goalie. Maybe if DiP were healthy and could dteal 5 or 6 games, but no chance with our goalies today
this team has absolutely ZERO! 0% CHANCE OF PLAYING .500 down the stretch. Why this is in discussion is beyond me but I will put my two cents in. 3rd and 4th string goalies, young players who cant score, old players who cant skate doesnt make for a team to play .500 hockey. Lets be honest. Their record will be 9-21-3-2
30% 10-20-5 what a tough call, this last homestand showed we can shutdown everybody but we cant score goals. If we lose comrie,weight,guerin, then there will be less goals. Not to say we wont compete relatively well but too many intangibles on who will be on roster to end the year. i’m certain yan will continue to shine but not get rewarded with wins.
The isles will not win more than 20 games in total this season. I dont really care as long as they lose just enough to suck more than anyone else and win the No. 1 draft slot!
30% chance that they go .500. As much as the #1 pick for this franchise is the must have, it would also be nice to see the team use the last month of the year targeting games against teams going for playoff pushes as “must wins” for us to start getting the young guys focusing on not just getting better and experience, but also learning how to win together and stick up for each other. I want this team to start to mold an identity that we are never an “easy” team to play against.
33.3333333% they go .500.
My money’s on 14-16-5
.01% chance they go .500. Record: 7-24-4
Let us remember this team has won one game in ‘09, and the first month of the year is almost over. relying on the kids will benefit some… Okposo, Neilsen, Tambellini, Comeau, Bergenheim; but will hurt others: Bailey, Thompson, Bruno.
Booted off the Island: Witt, Hilbert, Park, Sim (he’ll just be in exile as a scratch).
Weight and Guerin will still be here since Garth knows the kids need leaders, but will bolt after the season and a lack of playing time down the stretch. Comrie (and Hilary) will be here this season and I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’ll get a 2-year deal too (someone needs to keep us on the floor)
It won’t be a fun ride as a fan the next couple of months, but hopefully our patience turns into #91 John Tavares.
10% chance and Danis will be the #1 goalie with a lower GAA then MacDonald.
the team was 1 for JAN.
They will most likely be shopping their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers for picks.
Their best shutdown “D” will [I'm guessing] be gravely disappointed if he is still on the roster after the deadline.
…and it has been reported that the locker room is in somewhat of a divide over the coach… oh yeah… I see them going .500.
.0001% chance… becasue nothing is impossible. I mean, Allen Iverson got into Georgetown… right?
at best 8 wins. 8-23-4.
Bialystock and Bloom have doomed this team from the start… It’s springtime for Gordon in Uniondale… It’s overspeed for Guerin and Witt…
Don’t be stupid, be a smarty, just wait until the ol’ draft party!
0% for this season and next.
Because nothing is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE in this world I am going to give them a 1% chance of going 500 the rest of the way. As far as the record. Look for them to finish 12-19-4 the rest of the way. I can’t wait to see what Tavares looks like in an Isles jersey!!
0% chance. With 2 backup goalies and very little offense there is no chance.
10% chance. I don’t expect them to win more than 10 games. Probably in the range of 7-9.
I think they’ll be in a lot of those games that they lose, including some OT and Shootout.
Low to mid 50’s in points. Fatigue will set in, especially for the young guys who are not used to grind.
Although I have the Islander’s winning 4 out of the first 6, the rest of the way I see them only winning 9 of the remaining 29. So Chris I agree with you. I just hope that keeps the Islander’s just where they are at the end of the season. “Last”! so we hopefully win the Lottery and choose John Tavares. Also Chris, could you varify Feb. 21st, as the date for NY Islander’s fan’s to rally for the Lighthouse Project, and the NY Islander’s remaining on Long Island, and fill us Die Hard, NY Islander’s Fan’s, what will the nite consist of. On that nite, NY Islander’s 5, NJ Devil’s 2. Thanks Chris, Mark from NJ
10% chance of going .500
Predicted record: 10-19-6
11-21-3 with another long losing streak bridging FEB and MAR. they’ll finish strong, something like 5-4-1 in last 10.
i feel in my gut that john tavares will be an islander.
30% chance at .500
They win 11 games
Baumbach is lame
oh and why the hell don’t we have a PB Night at an actual GAME? i prefer cold beer and live hockey to three plasmas and some wine and cheese.
0.01% that they will go five hundred. I Think they will go 10-19-6. There going to try to sell at the deadline anyway. The schedule isn’t exactly favorable by the way it looks right now. They will continue to be injured in Gordon’s system. The team will continue to break down as the season progresses. One thing this team like most isles teams has is heart which will keep them close in a lot of games.
No chance. However, if the sky opened up and Moses Parted the Long Island Sound: 3.6%
final 35 games 11-19-5
Chris Dey, Charles Wang and Garth Snow should be very proud that all fans have to hope for is a best case scenario of finishing .500 for rest of season.
But yes, we can all praise Snow for skunking this season because we have a shot at a #1 draft pick. Stings real bad.
All this long time fan cares about now is the continued development of Okposo, Bailey, Comeau and a few others that will most likely be here for a few years. The record won’t matter as much. That’s just the latest talking point for us fans who have run out of topics in this latest dismal season.
0% chance they will go 9-22-4 and john tavares will be ours
0% chance of going .500. 8-22-5 the rest of the way. which gives us about a 50-50 shot of getting the number one pick. of course with our luck, we’ll be on the wrong end of that split.
3% chance of going .500 and they will be 9-23-3
0%….they will go .500 against the rangers though. And there is a 0% chance the isles will ever show the lack of effort the Rangers did last night in Pittsburgh. Lovin King Henrik’s stats in his last 4 periods: 12 GA…very nice
11-20-4
NO chance of .500, however Tambs will score 20 goals last 35. Please dont flame here -only kidding - Tambs will PLAY in 20 games.
CB I agree that the Isles will play better the last 35 games than they did the first 47 games .. thusly they will match their total wins thus far.
I think there is a 0% chance they go .500 (still have some injury issues) … and as you mentioned CB … historically teams perform better down the stretch after the deadline … mostly b/c they play loose and other teams take them lightly …. Still … I think there is ZERO chance the Isles can go 17-17-1 (or other combo of .500 or better).
I picked 13 wins in the previous thread mostly as a symbolic guess (13 being the badluck number) … really didn’t seriously think about it… but I’ll stick with it.
I predict the Isles will go 13-19-3
0% chance that the islanders go .500 … not hating but with a 6 game road trip along the way and alot of division games theres no shot …. I think the islanders will win 7 games the rest of the way .. 7-25-3 … first overall draft pick (hopefully).. Yann Dennis scores more than Tambs (empty netter) and coach gordan slips behind the bench and pulls his groin… (JOKES)
going to australia for 3 months .. look foward to keeping up to date on your blog CB… to everyone: do it up big for TOH Night at the barn…….Lets go ISLESSSSSSSS
0% chance
9-21-5 finish….
But they will all br good games no more 9-2 blowouts and team will end the season well
Islanders will be better down the stretch, for the compete-for-jobs/late-rally reasons CB stated.
But true .500? No way. Loser-point-aided quasi-.500? (”Look! A loss is just a tie!”) I’d say 15% chance, partly cloudy.
14-17-4 is my guess, which is why I never wager money.
0% chance the Isles will go .500.
9-20-6 in final 35 …gut this roster already
Weight, Guerin, Comrie, Witt, Martinek, Hilbert, Pock - put this guy on waivers,
Sim (in this order.. waive again, re-entry waivers, if not picked up put in minors, then buyout in offseason)
I’d say the %age of us going .500 down the stretch is 5%….not 50%…..5%. You are right about players playing for jobs, and even last year we had points in 4 of our last 10 games (I think) ruining the opportunity at getting Stamkos or one of the stud two-way defensemen. (Bogosian, Doughty and Pietrangelo). But I say our record down the stretch will be ………..9-19-7= 25 points
16% chance the Isles will go .500
11-20-4 in final 35
Comrie goes to Phoenix or LA
Unfortunately, I don’t believe there is 0% chance that the Islanders will play .500. Their final 35 games…10-22-3. Looking forward to seeing Comeau - Bailey - Okposo tonight and driving to Saskatoon for their next training camp!
0 % chance Isles will go .500 the rest of the way. They will probably finish up somewhere around 10-25. They haven’t played .425 for any period of this season and Savior Ricky isn’t coming back anyway; 1 or more of the veterans will be gone, hopefully Witt, Weight, Sim & Geurin are all Syonara. Lets get the kids in the lineup baby!!
The Isles could not go more than 5 games at .500 till at least this time NEXT year. THIS YEAR, are you nuts?
With Wang’s money and DiPietro’s looks…the Isles couldn’t score.
Aside from the lack of talent, they have a GM & Head Coach who have REPEATEDLY AND PUBLICALLY stated…wins & losses don’t matter. Teams are molded from the top. If the GM & Head Coach have no pride, nor ambition, I ain’t putting money on the players…not in any economy, let alone this one.
The Isles sniff .500 (after 82 games) in the 2010-11 season…until then? They’ll continue to sniff the butts of the players that escaped from the asylum July 1, 2007.
I GOT to get a job with the Islanders. Working without accountability is called retirement. God bless you Garth Snow. You have a dream job. Failure is not only allowed at your organ-eye-zation, it’s encouraged!
I’m suprised a bit to see all the faith alot of Islander fans have in our team in the second half. The past two years we have seen this team flop down the stretch so what gives anyone any reason to believe more of the same is to come. This team is considerably worse than last year’s team. Like I said I can’t see more than 22 victories on the year. As a fan its always fun to see them win, so whe they do enjoy it because I just can’t see how it’s all of a sudden gonna turn around. I’m not being pessimistic-I’m just being realistic. Go Isles-that is in 2009-10, sadly it’s better for us to lose now to win later!
20% chance of .500.
12-20-3 the rest of the way.
What do we win if we’re right?
Between 0 and 5% chance of .500 the rest of the way. If I had to pick a specific number, I think zero is probably most likely. I do think that the team will pick up a few surprise wins against top contenders.
I think there’s about a 40% chance they end up the last half at .500, as long as they stay healthy. Hunter’s due for his second wind, Hilbert’s coming back and was doing well, Nielson’s primed and ready for takeoff and if we can get rid of bumpy and Comrie …okay wishful thinking maybe.
11-16-8
I can’t see why Snow would keep around guys like Guerin and Weight JUST to mentor the younger guys. It’s more than halfway thru the season, these kids need ice time, not hand-holding. If your not going to bring those two players back next year then it makes no sense to keep them around. Either sign them back or trade ‘em at the deadline-you can get something in a trade for both of them. A prospect and a pick probably for Weight and probably a pick for Guerin. Also I’d look into trading Witt as well. Clear out a spot for Hillen and let him play. He just doesn’t fit Gordon’s style. Also waive Tambellini, Sim and Pock. They are all just terrible.
It’s time for Snow to get to work. The future of this team is in his hands. God help us!
10%
10-15-10
I think that a lot of people have a very sleective memory regarding the games this season. People act like they have been blown away every game, and there have actually been very few games where they werent in it. the Isles have lost a ton of close games this season.
I realized at post #69 I forget to actually post a a percentage…the Isles have ZERO chance of finishing .500. ZERO. jesus Christ can come off the cros & play center, while Mike Ditka & Oleg Kvasha play the wings…the Isle have ZERO chance of playing .500 hockey over 35 games. Flash Gordon is about as motivating as a dial tone. I sles aren’t playing .500 hockey.
No joke CB…IF I was the Islanders, I’d put you in time out for this entry! IF all 29 other NHL teams sat in the stands & watched the Isles couldn’t play .500 hockey.
Chris, you have a SICK sense of humor for even bringing this up. I like it!
6-27-2… Thanks Garth! Woooo.
1.9% chance. Was gonna go for five percent higher, but didnt want to offend any fans here.
10% chance of going .500
prediction: 10-20-5
ZERO chance.
I think they’ll provide more fight, more fun games to watch like they had for a stretch oh so many games ago when we felt GO-GO’s system was working really well… but ZERO chance. Maybe 12 wins.
I say about 25 percent chance, but that includes overtime losses, so with that i say about 15 wins or so. 14-14-6 seems like it could happen, especially if we play hard and take some confidence from holding on against a big team in Anaheim going into the break
by big i mean not backing down against a a very physical team, which would be the easy way out when you are so far out of contention.
I think if this team wins more than 8 games the rest of the year it should be considered a miracle.
Zero percent chance of winning half the rest of their games.
Zero chance at .500. 7-24-4 down the stretch, last overall in NHL, lose draft lottery to either Atlanta or Ottawa and wind up with Hedman.
I dont know about the record but they have an 11 percent chance of drafting Scott Scissons in the first round.
20%
10-20-5
loss lottery
draft hedman
0% chance of playing .500 hockey the rest of the way.
95% chance of finishing last
48.2% mathmatical chance of Tavares if they do finish last
25% chance of actually holding on to the 1st pick in the lottery, because this is the Islanders we’re talking about
38% chance of .500
9-23-3
First pick - Tav
11-20-4, finish last, but will be lucky and loose the lottery. With pick #2 Islanders will get BPA, Victor Hedman.
not even sure how .500 is calculated in the NHL anymore, but it’s clearly 8% no matter what.
“Zero Point Zero”
10% and even less than that if some of the veterans are traded at the deadline. I think about 10 wins is a reasonable number. And being the skeptical Islander fan that I am, I predict that even if we finish last we’re not getting the top pick.
12-18-5. TAVARES TAVARES HELP US GOD!
With the luck the Isles have had, this team will heat up with Gordon’s new line combos and go on one of those 16 points in 10 game streaks that we haven’t seen around here for awhile. This, of course is just what the team doesn’t need.
Personally, I think there’s a 15% chance they play .500 or better the rest of the way. With no real NHL goaltender currently healthy, it’s going to be interesting. But it’s not about results - it’s about seeing the young guys really start to progress as players now that this is clearly their team.
To put it in perspect of what it will take for the Isles to play .500 the last 35 games just think of this … It took Joey Mac’s peformance in Nov.as one of 3 Stars of the Month in the entire NHL for just for the Isles to go 8-6-1 for the Month of Nov … that means the Isles have only 5 … yes FIVE!! wins the balance of the season … October, December and January thus far. DP had one of ‘em in December … Danis had one just before the All-Star break … so that means Joey Mac only had 3 wins the rest of the games.
With J-Mac coming back from injury … and probably sharing the 35 games in a 55%-45% platoon with Danis … I just can’t see the Isles even pulling in another 13 wins as I stated before … I might have to scale that back to 9 or 10 games … The sad thing is .. Atlanta and Ottawa are only 8 points away from the Isles … they pretty much stink to high heaven too.
Tonight’s game to me … if Isles beat Atlanta that seperates the teams by 6 points … with the Isles holding 2 games in hand … the race for last is closer than it appears.
I give them 0 % chance of playing .500 the rest of the way. 500??? Looking at the schedule I can’t figure out where our next win is coming from.
Record for the rest of the way…9-19-7.
That gives us a record of 22-48-12.
Not bad. I thought we’d only win 20 games.
7% chance at .500
8-22-5
I give them a 3.14159265358979323846 % chance
I give them a 100% chance that they’ll play .500 hockey. 20-10-5 is my prediction for the final 35 games. Bailey-to-Okposo will do it over and over again and kill the Tavheduch sweepstakes for the Islanders. It was a nice dream while it lasted.
0% chance to play .500
8-22-5
Just an update, they have won three in a row and I keep my predicition. The chance of the Islanders playing 500 hockey the rest of the way is “zero point zero”.