ARE THE NEXT TWO DRAFTS
THE MOST IMPORTANT IN ISLANDER HISTORY?
Point Blank guest contributor
I think that’s a valid question. There are a lot of different ways to answer the question but it all depends, of course, on perspective.
Historians could have a few different opinions. There was 1973 and the selection of Denis Potvin first overall. The next year the Isles took two kids by the names of Gillies and Trottier at the top and had a late round find in Stefan Persson. How about 1977? That was Mike Bossy and John Tonelli. 1983 was Patty LaFontaine in the #3 slot. Surely, any of those would be hard to top.
The next two drafts in addition to the one last June could produce one of the biggest and most interesting groups of kids this organization has seen in quite some time. For all the talk about how bare the cupboard is, in a year or two it might be overflowing.
As we have seen, it’s not feasable to build this team through free agency. At least right now. Two summers ago Ryan Smyth, Jason Blake, Tom Poti and Victor Kozlov all left Long Island. Consequently, the plan has turned to building the franchise through the draft, much like it was done in the 1970s.
If you go all the way back to 1972, the Islanders have a pretty good draft history.
If you only go as far back as 1996 — the first June that a certain Milbury had control of the process — it pales in comparison to the drafts of the 70s. In that first summer, Milbury selected JP Dumont and Zdeno Chara. Both are solid NHL players, no doubt. But keep looking at the rest of Milbury’s drafts, nine between 1997 and 2005, and the resume thins out. The list of guys who have made any impact in the NHL is short: Roberto Luongo, Eric Brewer, Radek Martinek, Taylor Pyatt, Tim Connolly, Raffi Torres and Rick DiPietro. Two stud goalies, two above average defenders, a solid forward when healthy and not a whole lot else. A dart board could have produced similar results.
In the early 2000s, the team made four playoff appearances and the impact of these drafts was noticeable. The lack of homegrown talent on those teams was almost non-existent. Who were the homegrown players that helped the Isles reach the playoffs four time in five years? Rick DiPietro, Trent Hunter, Radek Martinek and Chris Campoli. And none of the four suited up during the regular season in ‘01-’02.
Under Garth Snow, the Islanders need to be much better in the draft. Per Snow’s strategy, drafting is not a rite of summer here anymore. It’s a key to survival. Snow is a smart man and I’m sure he has put a lot of research and man power into his scouting staff. And in the coming years, we’re going to see what he can do. He already has two drafts under his belt and we’re going to not only see how well he can do when the team is committed to building through the draft, but also how well he has drafted so far.
This year’s draft - and potentially next year’s - are two of the biggest in Islanders history. They will set the tone for the next decade and decide if the team goes through another rebuilding process in a few years.
This summer, the Islanders are going to almost have two first round picks. Let’s say the balls bounce their way and they end up with the first pick in June. They’ll have the 1st, 31st (if they finish last in the league) and Toronto’s second rounder which should be no higher than 41. At worst, they’re probably looking at the 5th, 35th and 43rd. Either way, it works out nicely. You’ll have a potentially NHL-ready player, whomever it is, what’s essentially a late first rounder and an early second rounder. Let’s say Snow can ship off a veteran or two for a second rounder and a mid-third rounder and all of a sudden you have eight picks in the top 100.
The situation could look something like this:
#1 (hopefully, or could be #2, 3 or 4)
#31, Islanders 2nd
#34, from Toronto (draft day trade last year)
#50 (sent Mike Comrie to - and I’m making this up completely - New Jersey)
#55, from Boston (Nokelainen trade)
#61, Islanders 3rd
#88 (Brendan Witt to, let’s say Chicago)
#91, Islanders 4th
Assuming that at this point Comrie and Witt are worth this much could be a stretch. Assuming that the Islanders are able to get two extra picks in the top 100 in exchange for two veterans between now and June, not as much.
Looking another year down the road, next season isn’t going to be a lot better than this one. There are so many variables to consider, but it’s very likely next year is going to be a stinker, too. Maybe the team finishes in a position to grab the #6 overall in 2010, makes another trade and is looking at another five picks in the top 100 in 2010.
Like it or not, Garth Snow started stockpiling picks when he passed on Filatov last summer. The Isles had nine selections in the top 102 spots. That many is completely unheard of and was an attempt to make up for 2007, when the Isles were forced to sit on their hands until the third round.
If you combine the 2008 draft class with the potential of the next two years, we’re talking about 21 top 100 picks in three years. The average team should expect to see 10 or 11 of those during a three-year span.
Sure, you could say that this doesn’t mean a whole lot. Scouting is an imperfect science and gems can be found in the later rounds. The 6th round in 1998 produced Pavel Datsyuk, Trent Hunter, Ales Kotalik, Andrei Markov and Chris Neil. But pinning your hopes on late round picks is like throwing darts with the lights off. Just hitting the board can be an achievement.
Early picks are more accurate and more profitable, as history proves. Scouting is not an exact science, but it’s an accurate predictor of future success more often than not. Everyone remembers the big busts (Daigle) and the late round steals (Datsyuk). Those are simply outliers. Even if all you’re doing is throwing darts in the early rounds, you’re going to hit it big eventually. After all, Mike Milbury did draft the best goaltender in the league today. And I don’t mean Ricky.
If Snow is doing anything other than throwing darts, the Islanders could turn their farm system into one of the most talent-rich in the league. Hopefully, that would in turn produce talent on the Coliseum ice.
Comments.
64 Responses to “ARE THE NEXT TWO DRAFTS
THE MOST IMPORTANT IN ISLANDER HISTORY?”
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Nice job Kevin!
Amazing read Kevin. I couldn’t agree with you more.
Kevin, you’ve earned my respect. Great article.
Good stuff. You’re a welcome addition to Point Blank.
A good question, certainly. Here’s my answer: they wouldn’t be the two most important drafts in Islanders history if Everyone’s Favorite NBC/TSN commentator had so thoroughly screwed up the 2000 and 2001 drafts.
great article. posted this before
some radio show said that the isles will offer komiserek 6.5 million. i dont know about you guys but i see this at two levels
1) no way in hell should we be offering that much to a defensive defensman.thats wayyy too much. no more then 5 million. thats just stupid.
2) money could be a lock in getting him. besides where else would that money be going. like we would use it for something else. he is an all-star cheating or not. could be a great replacement for witt and always plays hard and could be a cornerstone peice. and if we had him this year, unloading vets would be easier.
my real choice. number two. it is a lot of money. way too much. but in the grand scheme of things, number two looks more and more logical. thoughts!?!?!?
that being said, i hope we start losing becuase this franchise needs to stay and we need a franchise player ( top 2 pick ) for that.
Good article. I am really hoping to get 3 more #2 picks this yr. I want weight for a #2 and prospect. Witt for a #2 and Guerin for #2. I would trade comrie for a prospect. If we do all these moves we will have lots of picks and a very good chance to have a very good team in 3 yrs. Komisarek is not worth 5 mill. Id offer him maximum 4.5 mill.
Two comments:
1. The amazing thing about taking Lafontaine with pick number 3 in 1983 is that we obtained that first rounder from Colorado for, I believe, Bob Lorimer. Could you imagine?
2. This is going back to the people should not blame Ricky post of several weeks back, but I wouldn’t refer to Ricky as a stud goalie. Someday? Hopefully. Now? Sorry, but no. And no, I don’t “hate” him.
too bad those trades wont happen…. cap floor
I know Witt is not playing like himself lately and believe me I am not one to reach but don’t be shocked if Witt gets a late first (San Jose, Boston) or a second and B level prospect. He is still a very respected defender in this league. I know teams are wary trading picks these days with the cap but a team who thinks they have a legitimate shot at the cup and has a need to fill will pay a high price for him. I know he doesn’t suit our system well but every team in the league and I mean EVERY would love to have him. Imagine Montreals defense with Markov, Hammer, Komiserak, Witt. That is a formidable top 4 right there. Garth would bve a fool to just get a second for him. There is always a demand for players like him in the playoffs!
I think the UFAs this year are going to find a very disappointing market. The whispers are that the cap in ‘10-’11 could be very, very ugly. TGiven the economy, this theory makes a lot of sense. The concern is that anybody with already big commitments that year, the year after, etc. (like the Rangers) are going to be hamstrung by several big contracts that their roster would be 3 stars and a team full of guys who are borderline NHL caliber, just to stay under the tighter cap. Komisarek and others might find themselves limited as a result of that.
The one reason why I think trading Witt would be tough is because he is under contract for another two years. Unless a team is very willing to commit to him for that long, then I don’t see him going anywhere.
It was Lorimer.
Of course, that doesn’t top how the Lakers got Magic Johnson. It was a trade they made about 7 years ago when they got the #1 pick of the then New Orleans Jazz for Gail Goodrich.
Sorry, I mean 7 years EARLIER.
i dont think that witts contract will be a problem honestly.
Nice article. FWIW however, blaming Milbury and/or criticizing his drafts from 1997-2003 is somewhat passe - have you had a look at Calgary or Edmonton’s draft record during that time? It’s not especially pretty either.
By your standards, the most noteworthy players in that era they’ve drafted were Phaneuf, Hemsky, Comrie, and Poti and that’s both combined - still less than us. Somewhat funny how it’s their papers that take loads of cheap shots at us too for wasting talent.
Also, among the players you’ve left out among Milbury draftees are Blake Comeau , Chris Campoli, Frans Nielsen. I’m not a Milbury defender at all, he’s done plenty of harm too and whiffed at the draft big time (how’s Michael Rupp doing these days? Or Chris Nielsen?); I just think we need to get over him.
o yeah, hall looks to be the number one next year so i hope we suck next year
Matt (post #10)
Good point on Witt. I’m not the biggest Witt fan for this team long term but as contending teams amass injuries, they’ll become more desperate to fill a void with experience to save their season or give them a shot.
Nice post, Kevin. Job well done. Of course the draft every year is criticle and i’m optimistic there is going to be talent after the 2nd pick. I like your outlook on the ‘09 draft (That Witt to Chicago actually makes alot of sense,lol), we’ll just have to see what happens this year and next.
@Lance79: Good points, Lance. I agree that Milbury bashing is kind of passe at this point. And there are always going to be upswings and downswings when drafting. Something it’s just bad luck, etc.
The thing about Comeau, Campoli and Nielsen is that, imo, the jury is still out on them. I should have mentioned that in the article.
sorry, *sometimes it’s just bad luck
- Kevin
Ron (#19) - no joke, I was born in Lindenhurst. The family moved away in ‘86 but I still miss it. Is the Black Forest Bakery on Wellwood Ave still there?
Kevin,
I’ve been with you until this post. The 2 most important drafts are 2009 and the 2008 draft. 2008 restocked the cupboards and 2009 is where we (hopefully) land “the franchise”. I don’t think the 2010 draft will be as important. The reason: We’ll be in the playoffs next year or right around the 8th seed. We’ll be lucky to get a top 10 pick. There won’t be the additional 2nd rounders that we had/have. If we get 1 of the top 3 picks this year, we’ll be set for the foreseeable future. We’ll use the 2nd rounders for either potential NHLers or trading chips. I don’t see 2010 working into Garth’s Plan, unless we pick #4 this year.
good read Kevin.
Chris who?
NIce job! I hate to nitpick, but Hunter is not technically “home grown.” He was obtained from Anaheim, but was developed in our system, so I understand your thought process.
Loungo is NOT the best goalie in hockey.
I think you seriously undervalued Witt and Comrie’s trade values.
derek, i think we will in the top 10 next year. we may not have guerin and weight. guerin our best scoring forward and weigth leading forwards in assists and points. our d may be worse depending on trades but at least we will hopefully have ricky.
Kevin:
Witt is one of the most physical, shut-down D men in the league. He just doesn’t fit Go-Go’s system. He is signed at 3 million per for two more years. That’s a good value. If Snow can’t get better than a #3 for him, he should be canned.
@derek #23: Fair points, all of them. Depending on who we draft and how quickly Oksposo, Bailey and others come along, a playoff spot may not be out of the question next season in the everybody-gets-points league. I’m just a bit more pessimistic about the whole thing.
@redzi #24: Hey, let’s remember who built the empire!
@strummer #26: I’ll be honest, their trade values were shots in the dark for arguments sake. That kind of stuff I would rather leave to CB. Luongo has been a bit off this season, but you’d be hard pressed to find someone better over the last 5 years, especially considering who he played behind in FLA. I think we’re talking about him, Brodeur and Nabokov (in any order) over that span… and then everyone else. Kipper, Turco and Giguere have all fallen way off lately…
- Kevin
With five selections in the first 61 of this draft, and most likely the top pick, they need a strong draft this year as well. The only way this team ever competes again is by building a solid team through the draft and locking up good, young talent to long-term deals early in their careers.
They can use free agency to acquire spare parts, but the bones of the team must be built for the draft. If that takes 3-5 years to accomplish, I’m okay with it, so long as the plan isn’t deviated from and Snow doen’t grow impatient with the prospects, as his predecessor did far too often.
Picks schmicks - trade some of the value picks for up and coming youngsters, Quality not quantity is the name of the game. Get some PLAYERS with mucho upside for some of the picks - it will have to be a combination of both -not just stockpiling draft picks.
I forgot to add in post 31 - look what the Flyers did last year Zhitnik for Coburn. Not a second rounder or a 3rd. A big d-man with mucho upside. We need a few trades like this not Witt for 3rd, Comrie for 2nd, etc.
I think Witt can fetch what I stated in post 10 if there is the need. His contract for the next 2 years at 3 million is definetely not going to be a deterrent, if anything I think it would increase his value. If Garth got anything less than a second and a legitimate B prospect I would think he got robbed. Just my opinion and yes I know I’m not a GM!
Any team that trade for Witt this season could easily off-load him in the summer for a later pick. For example they hand the Isles a 2nd round pick and a prospect now and decide to move him after the play-offs (successful or not) for a 4th rounder or something. His contract is reasonable and runs for only one more year after this. Making the argument that his contract is too big to be moved doesn’t hold water.
Look at what Flyers fetched for Zhitnik two years ago. I’m not saying the Isles will receive both a stud D prospect (Coburn) and a 1st rounder, but a team trading for Witt knows exactly what they’ll get and I don’t think his contract is a factor in negotiations.
Look what they got for Zhitnik and don’t forget about what Foote fetched!
Looks like a few more pointed to the Zhitnik trade. I don’t think Snow will get the same, as that easily was one of the worst trades the last couple of years. Merely pointing out that Witt hasn’t got a bad contract.
The drafts that led us to the cups are 1A in importance. Last years and the ones to come are 1B to get us back to those cups. DRIVE FOR 5!
In concern for who we may trade and the resulting hit against the cap, couldnt we just pick up some of the moving players salary to reduce that? Maybe that would also spice up the pot in our direction.
What’s the penalty anyway for going under the cap minimum?
@ Lance79: Couldn’t agree with you more about moving past Mad Mike.
But my point wasn’t so much his draft record as his draft day actions in those two drafts. The Isles had the first overall pick in 2000 and the second overall in 2001. And what does this organization have to show for that? Rick DiPietro and Jeff Tambellini (came in the Parrish trade years later). If I was given a choice of having those two or Luongo, Heatley, Chara, Spezza, and Jokinen, I’d take those five.
The biggest overiding point is that if he doesn’t make those deals (one of which at least made zero sense at the time), we’re *likely* not sitting here debating the importance of this June and next June’s drafts.
I’ll move past Milbury when the Islanders organization moves past Milbury; something, from a personnel/talent standpoint, they still have yet to do.
@strummer #26: I’ll be honest, their trade values were shots in the dark for arguments sake. That kind of stuff I would rather leave to CB. Luongo has been a bit off this season, but you’d be hard pressed to find someone better over the last 5 years, especially considering who he played behind in FLA. I think we’re talking about him, Brodeur and Nabokov (in any order) over that span… and then everyone else. Kipper, Turco and Giguere have all fallen way off lately…
- Kevin
He is looking bad since coming back from injury. Why HE gets a free pass that he is still 100% and just getting back into shape (while playing poorly) while a guy like Giguere- who has proved SO much more- is just considered “fallen way off” and thats that, I will never understand. The NHL is so hung up on Luongo and in many cases Isles fans are the most hung up of the whole bunch!
I think my favorite draft related flub in recent sports has been the Pistons trading Otis Thorpe and getting Memphis’
(i think) 1st rd draft pick YEARS later, which was the #2 pick in the legendary ‘03 draft.
Yes, Detroit botched it, passing on ‘Melo, Wade, and Bosh for Darko Milicic. But the intention was there!
who?
For your consideration, I offer the following list of stellar Isles 1st round draft picks:
1. Duncan MacPherson
2. Scott Scissons (picked one spot after Jaromir Jagr)
3. Brett Lindros (I am one of about 15,000 people who saw him score one of his TWO NHL goals)
4. David Chyzowski
5. Kevin Cheveldayoff
6. Robert Nilsson
7. Ryan O’Marra
8. Tom Fitzgerald
9. Frederic Weis (sorry, wrong team; but not much better)
TMC I agree. Loungo played behind some very good and not so good FL teams. He plays behind a great team in Van and hasn’t looked that sharp. He has excellent positioning and is a big guy who the puck hits. He doesn’t make the save so much as get the puck to hit him. His rebound control is not great, while getting all the hype as the best goalie in hockey he’s been traded twice, he still cannot play the puck even around his crease. Has he won anything? Has he even made one playoff appearance? I think Broduer is an excellent goalie but Loungo is middle-to-lower of the pack. if we are talking about finding a goalie for the same team then I’d much rather have Broduer, Turco, DiPietro and numerous others then Loungo. Those three steals games Loungo just might not lose you one. Oh, the NHL PR Machine is an amazing thing they just don’t always get behind the best guys. I mean the minute you start playing for a Canadian team your automatically talked of more positievly.
In short, no. There’s no chance the next two drafts will be the most important in Islanders history. They will never top the drafts of the early to mid seventies - largely because no group they’ll ever be able to assemble from this point forward will be able to stay together to make a run comparable to the one those guys had.
I know it sucks for you twenty or early thirty somethings, because you missed out, but… in all objectivity, the magic of that team will never be recreated. It simply ain’t ever gonna happen again, anywhere.
You can’t even say that THESE drafts are different, because they might save the franchise. Those 70s draftees also saved the Islanders way back when, when the potential and excitement of that team convinced several private businessmen to save the Isles from the effects of Roy Boe. And those circumstances were arguably more dire.
Not saying these drafts can’t be special, but let’s be careful with the “most important ever” type of thing…
Moving both Witt and Comrie. I like the cut of your jib.
You are seriously underestimating the value of a Brendan Witt to a contender looking to bolster their D come deadline time.
yep
I’ll make the obvious point that you also need to develop the players you draft. Draft picks are often overrated in value especially among hardcore fans. Only rarely do you draft players you could not get by other means, and that usually happens in the 1st round. In terms of emphasizing draft picks, last summer was an exception because the Islanders had very little in the system thanks to trades and bad drafting. But what I really want to say is that if you’ve had a gazillion picks at your disposal over a span of, say three years, you can’t sign and develop them all. You can’t just dump every player you’ve developed in the years previous either. There are only so many roster spots and roles to be filled even at the AHL level. Ultimately, if you keep amassing draft picks, you’ll end up cutting a kid who in time turns out better than the kids you keep, just as you might draft a kid above another kid who later becomes a star.
The most important drafts for Snow’s rebuild are the 08 and 09 drafts. If he has to rely on the 2010 draft crop, the rebuild is failing. 08 restocked the system, 09 solidifies it, and later drafts will just keep the gears serenely turning with no need to amass picks and re-restock as long as these restocking drafts don’t turn into complete busts.
Kevin S. - appreciate including those trade picks “for argument’s sake.” As long as everyone sees them as such, this is a fun topic. (That said, Witt’s contract really is an issue, though; it’s a value, but most of the teams seeking the “missing piece” can expect to be close to the cap for the next two years; they might want to send salary back).
Those early drafts will always be the most important, as they formed this franchise’s identity. But the next two will be a close second - and the most important since. Even if the Isles took Spezza back when, with all the other shenanigans: really, how much different would this decade be? Spezza took a while to develop, and he may have fled after his entry deal.
Speaking of drafts … CB … Where did you get this kid? Kevin has very deep and insightful ideas… sure a lot of what he suggested is pure speculation at this point … but Kevin brings up some excellent points.
Great piece there Kevin!!
The importance of the next two drafts are critical to the future of the Isles … I’ll even add how last year’s draft is as important since it also helped setup this draft.
I think Torrey’s last draft pick with the Isles that produced a substantial player was Brian McCabe in 93 … Milbury did have the advantage of numerous early 1st rounders in the late 90s to draft some good players … but none of em ever had the chance to develop on the Isles. Not all MM’s fault either .. but I feel we are at that point again … where the Isles can draft the future of the team …. and 5 years from now with consistent and surgical like drafting prowess … the Isles’ development system will be the envy of others in the league. (fingas crossed)
Good article CB but you are missing one important fact. The 2006 draft was one of their best drafts. I know it is still very debatable but thanks to Neil Smith ironically enough. 1. Okposo, Figren, Jonessu, Rehett (unsure of spelling)These 4 players are going to definitely get this team back on track in the next two years. We are already watching Okposo pay some dividends this season and develop into a solid player. Just do not overlook the 2006 draft. If Rhett, Figren and Jonessu develop like Okposo, they will really have a solid foundation, especially if you sprinkle in Nielson and Bailey too. Then think about possibly adding Hedman or Taveres, could get interesting!
Maybe I’m crazy when it comes to evaluating Luongo and hopefully I’m not overestimating him because he used to be an Islander. But he has stolen a ton of games for the Canucks the past few seasons. His numbers from the 06-07 playoffs (small sample, yes) 1.77 and .941. The Canucks record in those games? 5-7.
FIsles #49 — great point about developing players. It seems now the org is committed to doing that (and doing it well), something that may not have been the case in past years.
-Kevin
torrey wasn’t drafting 18 year olds in the 70’s,check his results when he had to.
Torrey has often said the move from drafting 20-year-olds to 18-year-olds was one of the biggest changes in NHL history. His contention, pretty accurate, is that you went from drafting relatively fully-developed players to a crapshoot. I would be loathe to argue with him.
BTW: Poster above was right — Hunter was a 6th-round pick in 1998 by Anaheim, which gave him away for a 4th-rounder in 2000. Even Milbury made a couple of decent trades.
Was the 1st/2nd round combo of Bertuzzi and McCabe selected by Torrey or Maloney?
Strummer, are you serious about Luongo?? Have you ever seen him play? Marty Turco?!?
forget the injuries,the only gm who would take ricky ahead of luongo is the one out of a job
I’ve got five bucks here that says Witt and Martinek both stay right here. Both are outstanding vlues for the money they are signed for. Snow is not an idiot and is not giving away either of our top two d-man unless he gets blown away by an offer.
Comrie goes, Weight goes and Guerin goes if the right team wants him. My money is on Boston which is close enought for him to commute. Hilbert may go to a team looking for a penalty killer-4 th line grinder…….SW
For the last couple of decades, I have thought that Jim Dellavano going to the Red Wings damaged the Islanders franchise tremendously. After he left, the Islanders have made a lot of bad high draft picks.
Hopefully, the contemporary scouting staff will approach the level of the 1970s Islanders drafts.
19 ISLE in NJ 22 on Feb 4th, 2009 18:17:11 said: “I think Torrey’s last draft pick with the Isles that produced a substantial player was Brian McCabe in 93 … Milbury did have the advantage of numerous early 1st rounders in the late 90s to draft some good players … but none of em ever had the chance to develop on the Isles. Not all MM’s fault either…”
People love to say what a poor drafter MM was but its not necessarily true. If you want to see some interesting stats about what teams are the best drafters, check this out:
http://i44.tinypic.com/313goq8.jpg
nice read kevin.. nice for us fans to read good articles
I agree Kevin. The last Islander draft pick to score 15 goals for the Isles is Ziggy Palffy. That shows how poorly they have drafted and/or the inability to hold on to some players.
milbury’s record for drafting wasn’t his only problem,his status as gm/coach was. as a gm he rushed a lot of players, then had no patience for them(and subsequently dealt a lot of players when their value was down), and as a coach he didn’t develope anyone.