ON MOVING FROM 5 TO 7 TO 9
One final blog on the Bailey move
A few days ago in the Comments thread on the forward depth chart, Rich posted the following question:
“Forget about the ‘untouchable’ argument. I know you were against the Isles trading down twice to take Josh Bailey. Can you tell me your logic on what you think the Isles should have done? Do you think they should have drafted Schenn? Was stockpiling picks wrong in your opinion or did Snow not draft correctly? We have a good sample size for Bailey at the NHL level. Once he adds size and maturity I think he will be a second line center. That seems like a good pick to me.”
I’ve been consistent on this subject going back to Point Blank 1.0 in June. I’ve written countless times about Josh Bailey’s class, professionalism and impressive skill level. In terms of how he conducts himself, especially in the face of adversity and criticism, this teenager could teach a course to a few much older members of the Islanders’ traveling party. I’ve even laid out all the picks the Islanders added as a result of the move, which some interpreted as praise when I was merely stating the facts in the interest of fairness. Re-purposing that note, here’s the final scorecard:
Could Have Taken 5th
(pick one): Mikkel Boedker, Nikita Filatov, Luke Schenn, Josh Bailey
Instead Came Away With…
Josh Bailey
Aaron Ness (2nd round)
Jyri Niemi (3rd round)
David Ullstrom (4th round)
Toronto’s second round pick in 2009
Islanders insiders also say they never would have drafted wild card Russian right wing Kirill Petrov if they didn’t have the extra third round pick. Petrov, taken with the third of their third-rounders, is the franchise’s most high-end prospect not currently in the NHL or AHL. Nevertheless, I believe you should only judge this decision on the facts – not the Petrov equation. Besides, if the Russian ever makes an impact, it is years away.
The Accounting: The Islanders traded the 5th overall pick to Toronto for the 7th overall pick, plus a second round pick in 2009 and third round pick in 2008. They traded the 7th overall pick to Nashville for the 9th overall pick and a second round pick in 2008. They later traded the third round pick acquired from Toronto to Chicago for a later third round pick and a fourth round pick.
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I’ll give my take one last time. I don’t hate the move. It is not hard to make the case for it. It may work out just fine. That second-rounder from Toronto in 2009 could end up top-40. I just would have preferred the Islanders take the best player on their board at No. 5 and call it a night. Luke Schenn, in that mix, by most accounts is a first-pair defenseman.
Rich, you said it yourself: “I think (Bailey) can be a second-line center.” The Islanders had the 5th overall pick. I understand the depth argument, but I would have recommended trying to bring home a first-line player. As for the latest on Nikita Filatov, this is from a scout from the Eastern Conference who focuses on the pro ranks: “Man, I had no idea he was that tiny.” Guess we’ll see about him.
The Islanders would probably declare that they had Bailey No. 5 on their draft list – and they probably would be telling the truth. Fair enough.
This is the last time I’m writing about the Bailey decision. It’s done. I really like the young man. As fans, there is no longer any reason for you to look back. Josh Bailey is yours. He’s an Islander. Should this whole rebuild thing work out, you’ll be proud he’s on your team. And whether you love the move or loath it, know that it was all Garth Snow’s.
What’s your final opinion on 5-7-9? Comments.
110 Responses to ON MOVING FROM 5 TO 7 TO 9
One final blog on the Bailey move
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Vegas Isles Fan says:
Josh is 19! I love what I see from him in the playmaking capacity. The goal scoring ability will come in time. Add 20 lbs. to the frame and the skies the limit.
As for the moves down and the extra picks, omly time will tell. -
Coach B says:
If Snow stooped at 7 he just could have taken who was left (Boekker). Bailey will be a good player but not likely with the high end of Filitov, Schenn and possilby Wilson.
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Matt Brosseau says:
Josh Bailey is going to be a solid NHL player. Don’t forget…he’s only 19 years old and holding his own in the big show. A better bounce and he pots the game-tying goal last night.
Two years and about 20 more pounds and we’ll all be thrilled to have him in the orange and blue.
For that matter, all the kids played great last night. The vets (Sim, Guerin, Comrie) didn’t show up at all.
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Islanders1984 says:
I went ballistic when they didn’t draft filatov. But it is so true what the eastern scout said. When he was on that stage with the Blue Jackets. First thing i said was I can’t believe how small he is
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I hated the move intitally and was pretty locked in on Filatov. I think a lot of people were. But sometimes after hearing a name or a certain outcome so many times, people get locked in on it and don’t see what else is out there.
I know I had friends — and myself included — that in high school got certain colleges locked in their heads because of the name and the thought of what it could do. I think a lot of people did it with Nikita. He could be the next Ziggy or whoever.
It’s pretty clear the same is happening a lot of people are getting locked in on Tavares this year, too. All I’m saying is sometimes people get one thing locked in their mind and get angry if things don’t work out with that one scenario, even though others may be as good or better. Not sure that all the trading down was worth it (time will tell), but I think some people are just frustrated because it wasn’t what the series of events they had created in their mind.
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Brian G says:
This trade should still not be judged b/c its incomplete. Let’s see what the Isles draft with Toronto’s 2nd round Pick (should be no later than pick #37)and then everyone still needs to wait another year or so to finally access Bailey & the other 4 players in the Isles system vs. either Filitov, Shenn, or Bodeker.
The only way to look at it now is, if two of the 5 players the isles draft turn out better than one of the other players they passed on…they made a good decision. If not they dropped the ball.
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Akeem says:
I don’t know why everyone is saying his ceiling is a second line center, and in the same breath saying that he’s only 19 and give him time to develop. What you look for in a hockey player at 19 are hockey sense, raw skill, leadership qualities and character. By all accounts, at least base don what we hear, he has plenty of all that. As he physically develops further, why can’t he become a first liner?
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Steve-O says:
Chris! Please let us not for get the name Cody Hodgson (you saw the WJC), and perhaps Colin Wilson on the “could have had” list! Gotta admit I love Bailey and his potential, albeit perhaps not as high as a Schenn or Hodgson at this checkpoint.
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guerin13 says:
the draft party was hysterical. everybody had their heart on filatov and went bonkers when snow traded down. it was a jets draft moment. personally, i really do think that filatov is too small for this league. bailey will be a very good player but only time will tell if the extra picks were worth it to pass over schenn and boedker.
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I love having Bailey, but lets be honest on draft day I think garth Snow was the only one who heard of Josh Bailey
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Carmine says:
I believe that bailey might have upside potential to be a first line center. That is just my opinion I’m no scout or anything. I think he might but me bumped down on the depth chart if the Islanders decide to take another center like Tavares in this year draft. Either way I think the rebuild is looking pretty good for the first year.
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Andreas the Badger says:
Everybody is high on the Flyers now because they’ve got Carter and Richards down the middle. I didn’t hear all that much about them in the horrible 06/07 season when they ended 30th in the league. We may have seen some of Bailey’s ability, but let’s not fool ourself into predicting Bailey will top out as a 50-60 P/season player at max. Hell, Philly even tried to ship Carter along with draft picks to Toronto for Kaberle last season.
It’s a rebuild. Let’s give it another season. -
Bryan says:
I’m happy with Bailey but I believe not drafting Schenn was a mistake. Thats said the Islanders are a team hurting for some flash and attention. Schenn would not have provided either on Long Island. Nobody gets excited to go see a stay at home dman. They dont sell tickets and they dont draw outside talent. The one plus is that this may push the Islanders towards Hedman in June since they already have Bailey and Nielsen at center. Hedman is the piece the Islanders organization really needs.
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Schultz39 says:
Personally was really hoping to get Schenn as you can NEVER have enough shut down defensemen with a nasty attitude (see Scott Stevens). But agreed with some of the earlier commenters that Bailey needs to put on some bulk which will help him on the boards and on in the faceoff circle. Time will only tell but if he along with Okposo and Comeau continue to progress, we have some nice cogs in our first two lines for years to come. Add Tavares to that and we’re even stronger up front. If we end up with Hedman, he starts to rebuild our blueline.
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(Hey Guerin13 (10): Did you by any chance see the shirt I wore to the draft party?) I know CB saw it lol- dont know if he remembers- but it summarized how I felt about the draft last year.
But I really like Schenn, too… he was my second choice if the Isles did not take Filatov at #5.
Kevin (6): Excellent comment. I think you make a great point here about people getting locked in to thinking a particular way about a particular player and then once they make up their mind, thats IT. It is a dangerous place to be.
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Rick from LI says:
I agree with Akeem. We can’t cap Bailey just yet. At 19 he has not reached his full physical maturity yet. The only reason he has been able to stick so far is because he is so mentally mature. If his body can catch up to his mind, we will see his skills really shine. He may never score 25 or 30 goals, but if he can turn into a legit play making center (i.e. Marc Savard)I would settle for 15 – 20 goals and 50+ assists from the kid every year. I think everyone gets carried away with thinking that a number 1 center has to score a ton of goals. I think it is even more important for a number one guy to put his wings in good position to score. That being said. I was shocked by the two trades at the draft last year, but looking back, I feel like it was the right thing to do. For a franchise that had nothing on the farm, it was the right move. Although getting a legit first liner or top two d-man would have been nice, it wouldn’t have immediately turned this ship around. I believe we picked up some good talent last year and have a better chance to grab our star of the future this year. If we build a contender the right way, which I believe we are doing, we will eventually be able to plug the holes with some proven talent. Patience is a virtue my friends, the “quick fix” would have done us no good.
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Mikey says:
Great write up CB. Like Kevin, I also became obsessed with Filatov last summer and was livid when we traded down. In hindsight, I think I was wrong. I’m not a professional scout, so it doesn’t make sense for me to have very strong opinions on prospects. I am trying to have a better mindset this year. Tavares, Hedman, and Duchene could all be great players for this franchise.
Milbury’s reign of terror and poor drafting from 2002-2005 decimated our depth chart. Snow correctly assessed our situation, and decided he needed to replenish the system in year 1 of the rebuild. We got four extra players (plus Petrov) who have promising upside. I think it was a good move, but we won’t know for certain until 3 years from now. Schenn looks like a nice player, but I’d rather take a shot with Bailey and a few others. As the rebuild continues and we collect more players, Snow will not have to utilize the “trade down” strategy again.
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Bryan if your talking about selling tickets and stuff like that then the Islanders better draft Tavares
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nyislanders93 says:
Akeem (8)- I completely agree. There is no reason why Josh Bailey can’t be a first line player. He is a 19 year old rookie who has looked like he belongs in the NHL. On a team that is in last place, he isn’t producing poorly. He has 2 goals and 13 assists for 15 points in 43 games. He is only going to improve.
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Darren says:
It’s hard to say.
Bailey is 19 and has a lot of growing and work in head of him. And the other picks haven’t got to the NHL or AHL…yet!
I think we can better answer this after 2 more years. I will tell you that the second round pick from the Leafs is starting to look better everyday. To me it’s more like a late first rounder. -
Wedregast says:
Honestly I think Bailey can and will be as good as Hodgeson, Wilson, or Boedker. Filatov and Schenn I think both have higher ceilings. I think that if 1 of Bailey, Ness, Niemi, Ullstrom, or whomever we pick with TO 2nd pick this year does not at least match the success of either Filatov or Schenn in 5 years, then it was a failure.
Chris, I have two questions for you:
1. If Isles finish with one of the top three picks, do you think it concievable that Snow could be persuaded to part with one of those picks for a package of picks, prospects, and players? Or to put it another way, are Snow and the scouts sold on the top three prospects and there potential?
2. Disregard this if its been answered already. With the money problems the KHL is having, do you find it concievable that Petrov comes over here next season?
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Lawrence Teller says:
TIME PEOPLE!!! – Only time will tell on this issue. I love to go onto HockeyDB.com and look at past drafts – and sometimes it takes as many as 7 or 8 years to properly evaluate a draft.
I would imagine that from picks 5, 6, 7, and 8 – at least one will be a bust. -
UIF says:
Didn’t agree with the move then, don’t agree with it now. As everyone says, it will take time to know for sure, and for all of the picks – Isles’ picks and others — to develop. Hopefully I’m the one who’s wrong. In the meantime, I’m of the opinion that Snow and the Isles are not smarter than the rest of the league – only top team trading down and selecting someone outside the consensus top 10 (a highly-touted top 10, from what I read). But I hold nothing against Bailey at all, and think he’s played admirably so far, and I’ll cheer him like heck for as long as he’s an Islander.
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Spud 31 says:
I went to the draft party and that day I admit I was one of the people who left in disgust right after the pick was announced. I remember quite clearly yelling at John Buccigross as he instructed us to “show some Long Island class” or something he said to that effect (which I feel bad about, sorry!). I have nothing against Josh Baily, and the other prospects need time, but once in a while I feel like the Islanders can just make a decision that doesn’t require this type of debate. I get the feeling that even if they get the first pick in this draft, they will do something “creative” and get us Islanders fans laughed at.
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Honestly, Spud- it was the horrible reaction of the fans that got Islanders fans laughed at, not picking a great kid like Josh.
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valentino says:
The only thing i disagree with is how they managed his career this year. I feel he should of been given the opportunity to compete and win a medal at the world juniors. Yes he is getting great experience now at the nhl level, but quite honestly, all this losing and negativity can really damage a players psyche. Sometimes he seems like he is coasting. I dont see him playing like he is possessed. Is he just going through the motions?
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TrickyPete says:
I have been watching Bailey very closely over the past few months because i think that his skill set requires that you watch closely in order to really appreciate him. He will not wow you with his speed or his shot but he is a very intelligent player, who sees the ice with tremendous clarity for a player his age. I think his greatest asset is his passing ability and I think as he gains more confidence you will see he has a very good set of hands. Now, whenever he gets the puck he is looking to get rid of it and that i think is a testament to his lack of confidence at the NHL level. Ultimately I think he will be a #1 center in the turgeon mold if paired with the proper talent, but i will go on record as saying that if this organization agrees with many of you and sees him as a #2 center, we will never see the true bailey.
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Quez says:
The one thing that I can apprediate about Garth is that he is not that far removed from his playing days, so he might have a better idea of how the new NHL is shaping up and which players might excel in it. 5th overall is very high for a defensive d-man without the high end offensive potential like a Doughty or Pietrangelo. Little Nikita is just that, small. It will be yrs. before he grows into a Pavel Bure type if ever. So Garth and his scouting staff saw what they liked in Josh and I’m o.k. with that. Time will tell.
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bcarey says:
One final blog on the Bailey move
Thank god. How could someone not be comfortable with him by now? He’ll be an elite playmaker for years in this league with scorers around him. I think he has 80+ point potential with his passing instincts and the way he sees the ice.
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McLovin21 says:
My biggest problem with what they did on draft day was that it appeared to be another attempt by our managment team to “outsmart” the rest of the league. Nobody else had Bailey ranked in the top 5(actually i think only one other team even brought him in for an interview, and that was boston who was picking in the middle of the first round). Considering our long and storied history of failing miserably while trying to outsmart the rest of the league, the negative reaction was understandable. That being said, its way too early to judge whether or not this was a good move. History tells us that it wont be, but there’s no way to be sure right now.
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Otter says:
Personally, I would have preferred they stood pat with the pick they had. While Bailey is by no means a bust, what they got back in return is a huge gamble.
Obviously no draft pick is ever really a sure thing, the likelihood of a 2nd, 3rd or 4th rounder cracking the big club reduces dramatically with every round. In looking back on how many non-first rounders have made it to the NHL and are successful, it’s pretty slim. What could the Islander scouts have seen in these B-level prospects that other teams did not? Attempting to find a diamond in the rough doesn’t appear to be a sound philosophy.
The one benefit I see is that should the team find themselves in a position to deal prospects for proven talent, perhaps now they have a few more pieces to do so.
At the end of the day, the team is forced to have to build from the ground up. Whether they drafted Filatov over Bailey or whomever, the team would still be in exactly the same position in the standings that they are today.
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mrlbem says:
At the first or second Open House (the first held on a week night), several of us were trying to get Garth to open up about who he was going to take with the first pick. Of course, he wasn’t letting on. However, we then approached Ted Nolan and asked him who he liked and he mentioned the usual suspects, but mentioned one we hadn’t heard of before–Josh Bailey. Based on Ted’s comment (and I know Bailey was a teammate of Ted’s son), I think that the Islanders did have Bailey rated at number 5.
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StevieL says:
I had no problem moving from 5 to 7. The problem I have is 7 to 9. He will never admit it, but I think Snow outsmarted himself and lost the player he really wanted in Colin Wilson.And Ness at his size is a real roll of the dice! Bailey is a nice player, but he will be compared to these other guy’s forever! Now as far as becoming an elite player? He ranks 26 in rookie scoring. He has “2″ goals in 43 games ( which ties him with the hated Tambellini!)getting lots of ice time and PP time!He has a long way to go to be elite! Filatov has 4 goals in 8 games and has scored at every level he has ever played. The one concern with Bailey , as some one stated earlier, You can’t teach hands!He doesn’t seem to have a scorers shot or instinct. Can’t teach that!
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admin says:
Dr. Schultz (6): Thanks for the diagnosis, I think!
Brian G (7): Well put.
Steve O (9): I hear you about Hodgson and Wilson, but I don’t believe they were in anyone’s mix at 5. That’s why I didn’t include them in this discussion. I’m there will be a few players taken in the second half of the first round who’ll be very good.
Wedregast (22): Why Garth would consider that unless insanely blown away, I do not know. He won’t trade the first or second pick, and most likely not the third. Does anyone really need another Blowed Up Draft Party? As for Petrov, he’s just not close enough for that to be a big story right now.
Bcarey: a point a game? How many players will finish the season with that this year? I know Josh is only 19, but you may have taken it a bit too far, IMO…CB
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kevin says:
i see him getting around 20 goals and 60= assists. he really reminds me of savard. maybe less points but more leadership. i dont see it yet but if thats one of the reasons they chose him then i trust them that he has it.time will tell and im 50/50 on the situation. really would have liked a first liner or luke schenn but we needed to restock the system and we came away with a playmaker, leader, and another core peice for the rebuild
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McLovin – Your post is a much better way of saying what I was trying to say. While I may be (and hopefully am) wrong, for now I’m erring on the side of recent history wrt Islander “smarter than everyone” headscratchers that drive me to reach for my bottle of gin.
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also, speaking of the draft, will there be another draft party. a lot of people left disappointed but i mean with this year its either hedman or JT. so where can we go wrong?
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(My) final vote: A defensible move by a team that didn’t trust what it saw after the top 4 and saw a chance to collect picks for the depth it so desperately needs (as this season demonstrates).
As much as TOR loves him, Schenn then and now appeared to lack the offensive upside the other three ’09 big D have. When we can’t see the future, I judge a draft decision based on whether there was legit reasoning behind it. In this case, I think there was.
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Like most in the comments, I hated moving down, at first I wanted Filatov, after they moved down I thought, not horrible, now we’ll get Colin Wilson + a pick, then the move again. We’ll see what happens, I think Bailey will prove to be no worse than a 2nd line center or possible 1st liner. I think Garth had an idea that we’d stink up the joint this year and (potentially) land Tavares. I would bet my house that if we have the the 1st or 2nd, Snow doesn’t move down again. It was a one time thing. That being said, I’m an eternal optimist or a glutton for punishment and think Snow knows what he’s doing. This offseason is the real test.
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Marc from Troy says:
I was unsure about the move(s) at the time, but the more I think about it, and the more I see of Bailey, I think I can be counted in the affirmative. This organization badly needed an infusion of depth, and Snow did what he could to obtain both quality and quantity. I don’t understand how you can complain that this organization has no depth, but in the same breath bitch about something that was done to address that situation. For crying out loud, some of you act like Snow passed on Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby. At least try to put aside your hatred for all things Garth Snow long enough for a bit of perspective. He did not drop from the #1 spot and pass up “sure things” (like Ovie & Sid) for a few extra 5th rounders and a bag of pucks.
(And re: “on draft day I think garth Snow was the only one who heard of Josh Bailey”, please get a clue. The kid was ranked by Central Scouting between 12-14 in the months leading up to the draft. Players jumping up a few spots is not exactly unheard of, either, but when the Isles do it it’s automatically passed off as the doings of a crazy man.)
Finally, re: “I will tell you that the second round pick from the Leafs is starting to look better everyday. To me it’s more like a late first rounder.”… Bingo. In what should be a deep draft, that pick isn’t exactly peanuts.
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kevin (38), if this was a movie, I have a feeling the very next scene after you ask that question would be a group of Isles fans walking out of “Draft Party ’09″ screaming, “I can’t believe what they just did!!”
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lol uif, lets hope not.
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JLaMonica16 says:
in the pic you posted with this story….who’s the douche with glasses? Next Years starting goaltender?
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redbull says:
i liked the moves a lot. i was surprised at first, and at second, but looking back, i love the additional picks.
the ambiguity in draft choices alone means more picks often beat less picks – UNLESS, we’re talking about the elite players.
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Don says:
To me, it seemed like Garth was trying to pull a Lamariello that day – move down a few spots, pick up some extra later round picks, and draft who he really wanted all along. And, yes, that’s pretty much what he said he did. But I always figured that Garth gambled and lost twice – first that Filatov would still be there at 7 with the presumably defense-seeking Leafs and Jackets at 5 and 6, then that Boedker or Wilson would still be there at 9.
Garth may have redeemed himself somewhat with the 2nd round picks in 2008, but I remember being at a concert looking at my mobile phone, resisting the urge to start dropping F-bombs during that first round.
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Chris – Will there be a draft party this year? To put one positive spin on last year’s party, the items they had from the hall of fame was pretty cool. They should do that again, if there is a draft party.
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Strummer's Army says:
From a PR stand point the Isles should have taken the highest rated player not named Filitov.
From an organizational stand point grabbing Bailey and all the extra picks was the right move. I believe the kid can be a 1st line NHL center.
I continually hear Mike Bossy say when asked about Bailey “He’s going to be great.” SOLD.
Bailey ranked just behind Stamkos in points.
The organizaiton needed depth all over and it is hard to argue with any of the way Snow has already used the picks. The extra from Toronto this year should be huge.
Filitov, Schenn (who I really liked), Boddeker no gaurantee any will be great. Bailey can have just as much if not more positive impact as those guys.
I think a top 2 of Tavares and Bailey is very exciting.
CB, when you gonna sit Bryan Trottier down for an interview on the teams prospects and his role with them? Haven’t heard a thing about Trottier from ANYONE this year.
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“B-level prospects”? Niemi and Ness were both rated within the top 30 North American skaters by Central Scouting going into the draft – i.e. it was NOT just the Islanders who had these kids highly rated. Who knows what they’ll end up as, but “B-level” seems a bit harsh.
Once again, could we at least try to believe that Snow & Co were not just throwing darts while blindfolded?
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cory trivino was in and out of the top 30 prospects last year and the same with david towes. just sayin’
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mt275 says:
For those who are debating on trading down, just take a look at the SoundTigers. The team is stocked with journeymen, and career AHLers. The exceptions are Trevors Smith, Jesse Joensuu, and Hillens. Two of them were signed by Snow.
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B.P. says:
In response to this quote Chris…
“And whether you love the move or loath it, know that it was all Garth Snow’s.”Actualy wasn’t the move Jankowski’s really. Best I can remember hasn’t it been stated that he more or less runs the draft? Sure Garth has the final word, but I think as a newer GM, he just may rely pretty heavily on his top scout.
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Hey, scary bit of news. The bus carrying the Albaby River Rats overturned. Three were seriously hurt and 29 others injured. I hope everyone makes a fast recovery. Having had my SUV over turn and spin around on the roof recovery is not always easy or fast if at all.
You wonder how this impacts NJ’s plan the remainder of the year. How many of them are ready if called upon?
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I was all over Snow for trading down in the draft. I was really upset and wanted him fired. I was put into a really bad mood for the rest of the day and part of the next.
I thought he made up for it later in the draft with some smart picks. We have guys in the mix, although a few years out, that can really add some depth.
Bailey looks like a future captain to me. I like the fact that this guy may have a bad shift but you’d never guess it looking at the next. His head is never down in a game and he never gives up.
I was wrong on draft day for giving Snow greif about Bailey.
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Gary says:
Guys, I thought I would draft Shenn, but Bailey has great vision on the ice and passing skills. I think he’ll be fine. Before the draft he was playing with Windsor and the team captain (and his close friend), Mickey Renaud, collapsed and dies at home. He kept it together, had 96 points and made a run at the OHL playoffs. If anyone wants to see him in person come to the Booster Club meeting on Monday at the Marriott amphitheater. It’s $5 for non-members, but it comes off your membership if you join. Josh will be the special guest at the meeting.
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dj says:
Looks like Bailey has all the tools to be a Turgeon type in time….or a Mike Comrie type – hopefully the former! great idea about Trottier strummer.
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I actually think Bailey plays a lot like Connolly in his first year.
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Joey303 says:
Bettman: Welcome to Montreal. With the first pick in the 2009 NHL draft, The New York Isl………..We have a trade.
NOOOOOOOOOOO -
Isles4cups says:
Good comments Shultz #6.
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KP says:
Let’s also remember that the Isles had great need at center to fill in terms of organizational depth. I think that was the goal with the draft was to get that area going with a top prospect and they zoned in on Bailey. He’s given every indication that he’ll be just fine in the bigs. He’s been fun to watch for much of this season.
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Doug F. says:
They better not trade this year’s #1 pick… If they draft Taveras and having Bailey as the #2 center withe Neilson as the #3 they should be in good shape down the middle. If they get Hedman and sign Gilroy, they have the makings of a strong defense.
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Bailey plays WAY better then I’ve ever seen Connolly play. A shame about his concussion history. Pete Mueller from Pho is another very talented player who now suffers from concussions. Kelly Hrudey was on TV talking about his own concussion problems (didn’t know he had them). He said it wasn’t really getting a puck to the head but one time he got bumped into (not too hard) and it was the falling (head jostling) movement that would restart the concussions. You do wonder what Islander history would have been like if Hrudey and LaFontaine has remained Isles.
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isles72 says:
I wanted Schenn or Boedker (5’11,205) wasnt fussy about Filatov.
mckeens had Bailey at 11th,Trivino at 24th,Petrov at 36th, Ness at 45, Niemi at 54, Hamonic at 64, D Toews at 65, K Poulin at 70,
thats 8 players , approx 10 % of the mckeens top 70 drafted by the isles -not too shabby of a draft.
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Marc #49,
Not discounting the fact that they’re talented players. I’ll step my comment up and say they’re B+ level, but no way were those guys A-listers. Had they been, why didn’t anyone grab them before the 2nd round?
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doc says:
I was physically nauseous when following the draft on the internet while working last summer. Knowing that Filatov was available at 5 and they traded down!!!!
By the end of day 2 of the draft, I had reconciled my feelings and thought it was what was best for the team.
I have blind faith in Snow.
I now embraced those moves on draft day.
We shall see how it all turns out.
DOC
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Strummer… FYI – Rats (my local AHL team) haven’t been affiliated w/NJ for last 3 years. Rats are now a Carolina affiliate, Devils now own their own AHL team in Lowell, MA.
As to the more important point, there are some injuries considered “serious”, but none are considered career or life-threatening. Bottom line is that they got very lucky. Hurricanes will be fine, too. Short term, however, likely that Rats’ two games this weekend will be postponed, starting w/tomorrow’s scheduled game w/Bridgeport. I’m disappointed, ’cause I planned to go see that one, but can’t complain. Everyone was able to walk away from that accident, and it could have been far worse.
(If anyone else is interested, articles are all over the place, just Google news “Albany River Rats”.)
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sean says:
CB, can you tell me and the rest of the people more about Kirill Petrov… why is he so highly regarded? I have looked at his stats in his league, yes I know hes hurt, but in the past they arent that great. Can you or anyone else shed some light?
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isles99 says:
the isles should have just taken the best player and called it quits like you said. to the scout and his comment about filatov being tiny for the NHL, has he not heard of the fact that the new NHL suits smaller players just fine (patrick kane anyone?)and filatov has a hat trick on his resume already! does the scout not know that filatov has 4 goals in 8 games. small sample size but the potential is there. this scout sounds a lot like milbury.
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Steve S says:
Anyone who was annoyed with the Bailey pick simply because they had never heard of him is utter nonsense. How many players did you HONESTLY know about? Gimme a break. I guess you were disgusted when the Isles took Radek Martinek in Round 8 because you had never heard of him.
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Islesnut says:
The more I think about it, the more I like the move.
Aaron Ness will be an absolutely dynamic defenseman for this team. he’s a freshman on a powerhouse Minnesota team, and already getting top minutes and putting up points. Ullstrom, Petrov, and Niemi are all solid picks, and seem to have very bright futures.
Josh Bailey is a mirror image of Doug Weight, and that’s why I see Weight coming back for one more season to mentor Bailey.
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Cruicky says:
At the end of the day the Islanders have a divided team. Part of your team was built for Nolan and part was not. IMO Bailey is bigger and has a north american passion over the russian.
Snow will have to set his sights on making the proper picks, outside the first rounders to fill the roster spots with players that fit the coaches mold.
So, you need to sign a quality back-up for DP. Let Joey go, he will do fine and make more elsewhere.
You need a Go-To d-man. All good teams have one, atleast. Schen would have been perfect.
Then you build from the middle outward. Lose the old vets. Get young, really young and in 3 or 4 years you will be great.
Fans just need to be patient. -
I like what I see in Bailey, nice little passes, nice tricky passes. I would even like to say that he has a bit of Pierre Turgeon in him. I don’t mind that at all. If you get a top 5 pick and he turns out to be a second liner who puts up points,looks great on the powerplay setting other guys up, can probably be a very good penalty killer and will only get better as time passes…..who cares what other teams did in the draft? You have yourself a darn good player and thats all that matters.Lets be happy about it and thank God he isn’t a David Chyzowski or Scott Scissons.
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I’m a little higher on Hamonic than Ness. He plays on a really terrible moosejaw team and puts up good numbers.
I’m interested in what happens with Bailey as the coaches have him put on more muscle over the summer. A little more weight and a little more strength just really elevate this kids game.
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i wish it could be that easy cruicky. it can and most of it will happen though. just have to be patient should be the motto. i know at first i wanted tavares but hedman may be the right one. next year the top two guys will be forwards. after that i am not sure. if number 3 or 4 is a dman that changes and we should take tavares. snow should let next years draft decide what he will take this year. not who will bring in the more fans immeditley, wow i spelled that wrong, or what strategy ( build outward ) but where he thinks we will be next year and who we may be in position to take. or he can simply use his 2rd picks for dmen. dont the flyers have a great dman propect. package witt, 2 2nd rounder and a 4th for that guy. they may be in position to look for that extra toughnosed dman and witts the guy. any thoughts if that is fair?
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IslesAl says:
The most difficult thing for any organization, ESPECIALLY THE NYI is to obtain scoring talent. The top scoring free agents will not sign here. You can not teach someone to shoot fast, skate fast, release the puck fast, thats born talent. You can sign a Witt or a Silinger, so why draft players projected to be in a similar role with the 5th pick (or the first one, I have a feeling the best scorer will not be selected in the first round by NYI this year, its almost nightmare time, and the draft is months away). I sent CB a note about this a few weeks ago (picking the scoring talent when drafting in the top ten), he was kind enough to reply that VH is his hunch right now, but would not comment on THIS specific issue. I think Bailey is a good player, but for the GM on a team that can not sign or develop top scorers, why passing on the best offensive talent at the five spot is perplexing, especially for his pick, a projected second line player. If Petrov pays off, then that would be a bit of a reward. But how do you know you are drafting Petrov when you give up the #5 pick?
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last post. i forgot about hamonic. i have high hopes for him. im sorry but i am truly excited about this teams future. no pain no gain. our dman corps is good but is just missing that one guy. whether is be someone in a trade as i posted above or in the draft ( hedman or cam fowler who is supposed to go 3 or 4) we just need that number one guy. i say we get forward this year and cam fowler next year . i know i am getting ahead and this may not be the path but i cant help it. i want this team to do well and stay on LI
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Sea Bass says:
My take is that Garth made the right moves. The only question I would have is weather he tried getting to cute in drafting Bailey over Hodgson, a decision that seems to be overlooked because of decisions he made and the other players he passed on to get to the ninth position. I watched a few WJC games on the NHL Network this year (including the Canada/Russia game)and in each game Hogson was the best player on the ice and his play was much more noticeable then Sir Tavares. Production-wise I believe Hodgson even ended up with more points. I don’t know what Bailey would have done in that situation b/c the Isles made a poor decision in not letting him play in the WJCs in my opinion but I do know that Hodgson looked like a man amongst boys. Of course it will be interesting to see what Tavares does next season at the WJC’s when he is Hodgsons age. Oh wait, he’ll be playing wing on a line with Nielsen and Hunter. Boo Ya!
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You also can’t teach 6’4″ and 225. So with the Flash system, Snow NEEDS to pick a big and mobile d-men. one that can clear the crease on PK. Block shots and do the crappy work. He needs on e with hands for the PP. You need some grinders that will sacrifice their bodies on the PK. Players that can shadow the other teams top line in the play-offs.
You need team unity, everyone on one page. You need a physical fitness / strenght trainer to work with all of these kids and make the off-ice training part of their everyday lives. Not going to the bar. ( Like the vets ) Keep the vets away from the young talent. Do not let them ruin what you have coming. -
kevin… re: “snow should let next years draft decide what he will take this year.” You have got to be kidding. Who the hell knows what team will be drafting where, much less who the supposed “top picks” will be a full year in advance? Yeah, bet the farm on picking Taylor Hall with the #1 pick. What was that? Hall’s rating dropped? And we’re drafting @ #6? Oh. Never mind.
And could you imagine the outrage somewhere like – I don’t know – HERE on PB if Snow actually tried to explain a current year’s pick on what might possibly maybe happen NEXT year? That happens, I’ll just go ahead and predict the end of PB on that very day. CB won’t even have to consider whether he wants to shut it down, ’cause it will simply implode on itself.
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Isles1972 says:
Great read CB. People need to remember that when Garth said he was going to build through the draft, he was referring to the entire organization (including any minor league affiliates). This team had very little to choose from in the minors, and Garth is simply trying to get the best players, for both now and the future.
Toronto drafted Schenn, but name another young player in their organization that has a bright future? My point is simple, Garth has brought everyone on the same page, from the minors to the pros, and the more quality players you have to choose from in your bunch (if you have scouted right) you are better off in the future. Give Garth time and a chance to get things together over this summer and next and then we can judge.
Also, if Guerin, Comrie, Sillinger and Weight are not re-signed, that gives them close to $12million to spend. Let’s also see what Garth is going to do to fill those holes. -
i guess it wont be my last post and this one will. marc, its not like he is choosing between 50 players from this year to next. if he picks hedman this year dont you think he will be more inclined to pick hall or the russian guy and vice versa. take it easy bro, that was my point.we need a blue chip on d and offense so this year and next have two really good dmen in hedman and fowler. so if he chooses tavares then its fowler. im not going to predict the future becuase we may not be in either position but it might relfect his desicion on who to pick
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DanNOLA says:
I’m sorry, but there is no way that on Feb. 18 2009 that we can make any real judgements on this past draft. On Feb 18, 2014 and beyond when one or more of the mentioned players has made it to all-star games and achieved in the playoffs, then we can make good judgements.
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If Garth Snow bases this year’s top draft choice on who MIGHT be available wherever the Isles MIGHT end up drafting NEXT YEAR, then he should be fired before the this year’s kid makes it up to the stage. I’m sure he could then find other work, since, you know, he can see the future and all.
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streit02 says:
The only way to look at this is in 3 or 4 years from now and ask yourself. Would you be willing to trade Bailey, Ness, Niemi, Ullstrom and possiby Petrov for Filatov. That really is the only way to judge the moves the Isles made. As far as
Bailey’s potential goes, i dont see how he doesnt have the potential to be a 1st line center. The kid is 19 years old. Its hard to put a “ceiling” on a player that is drafted that high with his skill and vision. -
JPinVA says:
I went into the 2008 draft thinking that the Isles would take Filatov, and then he would get stuck in Russia until somebody else paid his ransom. So I was happy that they avoided that situation. But I also thought that a solid “D” like Schenn would be very helpful to the thinnest “D” in the NHL over the past 4 or 5 injury plagued years.
But if you look at what Snow ended up with you’d have to say that he improved the whole organization.
Time will tell. You can easily see Josh being a 2 or 3 center with a “C” on his chest. His back story was pretty attractive as well. He took over his junior team when Mickey Renaud passed.
They also had eyes and ears on that team to lend testimony to Josh’s intangibles.
No dissapointment so far. For all the things that make me pull my hair out, the 2008 draft is not one of them.
Not to change the subject, but how about a little love for Frans… who is becoming a #1-2 C before our eyes. If Josh follows that path (and they get solid NHL contributions from Petrov and Ullstrom) 2008 will be the best ISLE draft this century. Actually… it might be already.
PS: 79 pts in 50 games at Sarnia for DB isn’t too bad for a 6th rounder either. -
I’m half joking when I ask this because I know Colin Campbell could care less about player safety but has the Ranger player been suspended for his attempt to injure Bergy?
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I wasn’t the biggest fan of the move at the time, especially when the Isles did all of that and didn’t take Hodgson. Time will tell.
Re: Bailey as Weight, let’s not forget that Weight was the team’s leading scorer until recently, despite his age and coming off the worst year of his career. Further I think the comparison isn’t to Weight now, at twice Bailey’s age, but to Weight in his own prime as a 25 goal, 85 point per year guy. In the dead puck era, that’s some good production.
If Bailey does that for the next twelve-fifteen years, it will be hard to complain, unless Hodgson turns out to be the best player from that draft.
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Jimmy says:
i think it was a good move for last years draft, they got a kid whom they probably had their eyes on all along and they stock piled picks to help rebuild the system. However now that we have done that it is time this year to take the best picks available. JT and than the same witht ke the later round round picks.
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Cahoward28 says:
I know this isn’t fully on topic, but this is regarding Hedman vs Tavares. I just can’t see how you can pass on a franchise center. These players are NEVER available, the only way to obtain one is to draft one. As far as shut down big time D men, look no further than this years trade deadline where guys like Bouwmeister, Pronger and Neidermeyer all may be available. Guys of that stature on the offensive side are NOT ever available. You can’t get an Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby (not saying JT will be as good as these guys), but you can (although it costs) get a Hedman type if you have the ammunition. I just can’t see passing up a franchise center, I think we’d rue the day for the next 10 years if we did. Do you honestly believe that there is any other team picking in the top 10 that would take Hedman over Tavares? If so, I hope that they pick #1 and we pick second.
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Strummer, I really, really hope that they do something about that. After seeing the replay a couple of times, it looked pretty intentional. But, since it was a Ranger who did it, it probably will be ignored.
BTW Strummer, thanx to you mentioning them in the game thread, I’ve decided to piss my co-workers off and subject them to White Riot, Rudy Can’t Fail, and Police and Thieves, etc. very loudly.
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James says:
It’s so easy to play armchair QB now, but I recall when they announced the trade I was not happy, to say the least.
Luke Schenn and John Tavares would’ve looked great this June. However, because this team will now have Bailey, Nielsen, Thompson, Colliton, Walter, and possibly Doug Weight or Mike Comrie jockeying for roster spots next September, the Isles may end up selecting Victor Hedman instead.
So now it’s:
Hedman, Bailey, Ness, Niemi, Ullstrom, and TO’s 2nd rounder
or
Schenn and Tavares
Of course this is all purely speculative, but only time will tell which one works out better.
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rb says:
what Schenn brings is overrated…he’s not a two-way all-star defenseman like Potvin, Bourque, Lidstrom (Hedman?)…a second line center is worth more than a defensive defenseman, even “first pair”, in today’s NHL…scoring is at such a premium that you take the scorer first and develop a defensive defensemen, which is mostly size, skating ability and hard work…if Bailey is really is as good a playmaker as Isles think (he shows flashes) he’s a lot more valuable than Shenn long-term pick
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Mario says:
I was at the game at the garden last night and I think the young guys line played one hell of a game. Was Tambaweenie even in the lineup?? Comrie has to go and I would take a 3rd or 4th rd. for him right now. I just wanted to share that I think Bailey will be a very good not great player.
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Schenn has drawn the best player on the other team assignment, has been playing 22 minutes per game. He is the real deal and tough. Overrated????
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Travelchic59 says:
I was one of the “pissed off” people at the draft party. Took a while to get past it. But what is done is done. As long as Josh Bailey wears the Isles crest on his jersey, I will be rooting for him to succeed. After seeing him play this season, I think he has great potential.
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Jack L says:
I really wanted Filatov at first but now if the Isles get the #1 pick and take Tavares, they will have Tavares, Baily, Nielsen, and Colliton. Not a bad list of young centers.
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Vlad from Brooklyn says:
In my opinion the Draft moves were smart and with good results. If you planning to build with yongsters, you need as much kids as you can possibly get. More kids – more choices in depth. Plus so far most prospects are doing as good as expected.
Good job Snowy. -
isles316 says:
I think its a time will tell move. If the other picks pan out and Josh turns into a viable second line center then it might be terrific.
If they draft Tavares, you will have JT, JB and Frans Nielson as your top three centers.
What team can say they have better talent there?
Also, Luke Schenn is so one dimensional. If he were a Drew Daughty type I would be more agaisnt this move.
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Cruicky: “You also can’t teach 6′4″ and 225.”
After watching Oleg Kvasha for three years, I’m forced to agree.
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24R says:
Loved the moves when they happened – love them now. Break out the video tape BP!
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dalcy says:
shutdown defenseman do not exite. guys who score do. simple as that. Witt was drafted 3rd overall and i’m sure he was just as hyped as Schenn. i’ll take my chances with a pivot with hockey sense.
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316 #99 – Crosby, Malkin, Staal?
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dalcy- witt was drafted 11th
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hockeyDB does it again. listen, no way all those top 5 d-men from that draft are going to be good. one or more is gonna be pedestrian. lets all hope its Schenn
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Dalcy – I think you’re thinking of Jay Bouwmeester, third overall to the Panthers in ’02 (not sure on the year).
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FANTASTIC moves by Snow. Bailey will be just fine. A complete player. A lot of times, rookies come into the league and are 1-dimensional… relying on their offensive skills and faulting on their D. Bailey is a 2-way forward with more potential on the offensive side then say a Michael Peca. You can see him getting back and breaking up plays, working both ends of the ice.
And who better to mentor him then Trotts??
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no, for some reason i always thought Witt was drafted #3 overall. must have confused him with Chris Gratton since he is playing like him this year.
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Schenn could be great, so could Hedmen, the point is, the Isles can SIGN PLAYERS like that AS A FREE AGENT. You can SIGN 6’4″ as a free agent. Players like that are typically available on the Free Agent Market. The top scoring free agent forwards WILL NOT SIGN HERE and typically resign with their teams (see Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin) before becoming free agents. Can one of the “lets draft a D men with the first pick overall” acknowledge this fact and please GET ON TOPIC?
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19 ISLE in NJ 22 says:
Hated the trade down, didn’t really have my eye on anyone on your list CB. I was looking Colin Wilson all the way at #5.
Now as for the results. You said it. The jury will be out on the double down. Josh is a very capable young center with #2 potential & the fact we also got those extra picks may turn out to be a jackpot move. Only time will tell & by then we’ll forget draft day ’08
I definitely agree about Schenn, CB.