Monthly Archives: February 2009
In the wake of my post on the forward depth chart for next season, I heard and read my fair share of, “Geez, thanks a lot” and “Well, that’s depressing.” Although I don’t share the depression, I’m not in the business of sugar-coating anything for Islanders fans. For as long as this lasts, my goal is to provide as straight-forward a read as possible on the team.
The Islanders are in the home stretch of a season where they may finish 30th in a 30-team league, as many “experts” predicted. They are in Year One of a complete rebuild, a rebuild they were so un-shy to talk about, they held monthly Town Hall meetings at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum with, essentially, this theme:
We’re really going to struggle, we’re not going to patch-work the lineup if there are injuries or we stink, we’re going to build through the draft and we believe if you stick with us there’s a great chance in a few years we’re going to be really, really good.
The Los Angeles Kings, depending on whom you ask, are in Year 3 or 4 of their rebuild. They drafted 2nd overall last season, took stud dman Drew Doughty. Consider this your West Coast reality check.
The Islanders, absolutely, do not have to stink next year. But they need to get younger, much younger. Oh yeah, and bigger. Some more speed would help. Yep, tenacity…some younger, faster, bigger guys who actually want to go and get the puck would be kinda important. Did I mention skill?
It seems Islanders fans are starting to find aspects to hang their hat on. Most of the joy surrounds the development of Kyle Okposo, who’s mighty fun to watch. He was exceptional in the overtime this afternoon. When he stopped Crosby in the defensive end and then gathered speed as he skated toward the Islanders’ net, I admit to being on the edge of my seat.
Much of the rest is based around hope – hope that Rick DiPietro will make a full recovery, hope that Josh Bailey becomes a No. 2 center on a contending team, hope that all the kids in college and junior take the next steps. Hope that the Atlanta Thrashers grab at least 2 out of every 5 points they’re eligible for.
If it seems like I’ve been writing “It’s Going To Take A While” since Friday, so be it. I know it’s been a long time (oh boy, do I know). I can’t tell you not to be depressed. But there is plenty to cherish, plenty to be excited about in the next few years. And after the performances by the kids like Okposo, Frans Nielsen and Sean Bergenheim today, I doubt you need me to tell you that.
More notes late tonight about the game. Comments. Guidelines back on, grandfathered begining at 6:45 pm.
(UPDATED twice with my feedback to your Comments last night and this morning).
As the Islanders prepare for the March 4 trade deadline, here’s one view of their depth chart at forward for the 2009-2010 season.
Although we have stated that there are no dead-solid lock prospects on the rise for next season, we have included prospects in the list. We also have a series of notes on unrestricted free agency and other great unknowns.
First line: ____________ – _____________ – Kyle Okposo
2nd: Sean Bergenheim – Frans Nielsen – Trent Hunter
3rd: ____________ – Josh Bailey – Blake Comeau
4th: ____________ – Richard Park – _____________
Depth: Nate Thompson
Prospects challenging:
Trevor Smith – 3rd-line forward for 2009-10
Jeremy Colliton – 4th-line forward
Unrestricted free agents on July 1, 2009:
Andy Hilbert: chance of returning – 75% (3rd line LW)
Tim Jackman: chance of returning – 75% (4th line RW)
Doug Weight: chance of returning – 60% (center)
Bill Guerin: chance of returning – 20%
Mike Comrie: chance of returning – 1%
2009 Draft: Should the Islanders have one of the first three overall selections in the 2009 NHL draft and use it to select John Tavares or Matt Duchene, your top three center spots are likely filled with the kids. Although it would be wrong to slot an 18-year old as a No. 1 center, it’s all semantics anyway. Tavares/Duchene, Nielsen and Bailey would be the centers, no matter what line you put them on.
If the Islanders draft defenseman Victor Hedman, the need to re-sign unrestricted free agent Doug Weight or another veteran center would only increase.
The Questions Marks:
Sean Bergenheim as second-line left wing? May or not be the team’s view, but that’s my second line based on what the Islanders have. Sean would be a good sparkplug for Hunter and Nielsen. If the team signs higher-end talent, he simply slides down.
Where are Jon Sim and Jeff Tambellini? Both wings have a season left on one-way contracts, but if they haven’t won anyone over by now, tough to place them on the depth chart for 09-10.
Is there a chance any of the 7 forwards slotted for next season will be dealt at the deadline? While Garth Snow will undoubtedly get calls about Park, Bergenheim and perhaps even Hunter, I believe all 7 will be in Islanders training camp.
A little early to have Okposo as a first-liner, don’t you think? Yes, but unless the Islanders sign the Sedin Twins (don’t bet on it), that’s life. KO can handle it. Josh Bailey as only a third-liner? He’ll be good, but he’s only 19. That’s where he should be.
Where’s the heavyweight? I see no evidence the GM and head coach are true believers in the 8-10 minute heavyweight as an everyday player.
Wild Cards: Somehow, some way you have to believe Snow and Scott Gordon will try to import at least a pair of youngish free agents they believe 1) are better than they’ve shown with their current teams and 2) have the hockey sense and desire to excel if given more opportunity in a different environment in the Islanders’ style of play.
Effective pro scouting and free agent signings – not landing the big fish forward, which is the longest of longshots anyway right now – is the key to the Islanders making the jump to respectability next season. We’re talking about the kind of steal Jason Blake was when he was acquired from LA for a fifth round pick. We’re talking about Andy Hilbert-Plus-Plus. We’re talking about Chicago’s signing of Boston scrap heaper Kris Versteeg (22 years old, now 16-26-42 in 51 games with the Blackhawks).
If Gordon, who coached Versteeg in Providence, knows of other young men who could excel in his system, he and Snow should be identifying them and the scouts should be all over them. You have to believe they already are.
The defense rests until another day. We’ll get there. For now, Comments on the forwards. Before taking in the Monday matinee against the Penguins in the stands with my three sons, I’ll post a game chat thread. Unless news breaks, I’ll be back post-game. Looking forward to your heated takes on the depth chart…CB
They won 4-1 at home against Philadelphia on Friday night, getting two assists from a mainstay like Kurtis McLean and also solid performances from the players they have called up in a pinch from the East Coast Hockey League and parts elsewhere. On Sunday they host Norfolk at 4:00 pm at the Arena at Harbor Yard.
As we wrote on Friday, it may be a longshot for a current Bridgeport player to become a full-time contributor on the Islanders next season. (For perspective, you could probably say that about half the AHL teams). Nevertheless, the development program led by Capuano in Bridgeport will be essential to the Islanders’ rebuild for the next few years.
Here is Point Blank’s list of the top Islanders prospects in Bridgeport.
7. Tomas Marcinko – C, 2006 4th round pick: Started slowly in his first year of pro and scored just his fourth goal Friday night. But the former Barrie Colt by way of Slovakia is 6-4 and can skate. If he is relentless in his development, there’s always room for a player like Marcinko.
Upside: Fourth line center
6. Dustin Kohn (left) – D, 2005 2nd round pick: The Islanders are doing the right thing with Kohn. More than anyone, defensemen need time in the American League. Kohn has made solid strides in his second year in Bridgeport and will need a third.
Upside: No. 5 defenseman
5. Andrew MacDonald - D, 2006 6th round pick – Drafted at the suggestion of Ted Nolan, his Quebec League coach in Moncton, the late-blooming MacDonald has a shot at the NHL. If the Islanders trade any defensemen at the deadline, you could see MacDonald in spot duty before the end of this season.
Upside: No. 4 defenseman
4. Jeremy Colliton - C, 2003 2nd round pick: I kissed the kid’s butt enough earlier this week.
Upside: Third-line center and key faceoff man
3. Jack Hillen - D, 2008 college free agent: He’s with the Islanders now, but as an injury fill-in so he qualifies for this list as a true AHL prospect. Hillen is a small puck-moving defenseman who can be erratic in his own end but has the skill and the willingness to learn that make him an organization favorite.
Already a restricted free agent after signing a two-year deal out of Colorado College last year (those two season-ending games against the Rangers were Year One), Hillen will most likely be re-signed and given a chance to win a spot on the Islanders next season.
Upside: No. 4 defenseman
2. Trevor Smith - LW, 2007 college free agent: He’s 6-1, 190 and needs to add muscle and show an increased commitment on a nightly basis if he is to ever max out as a top-six forward in the NHL.
Still, for a free agent signee out of New Hampshire who spent time in the East Coast League last season, Smith has made a lot of strides. He has a team-leading 23 goals in 47 games this season, plus a goal in his cameo with the Islanders. Smith has a high level of offensive ability the organization lacks at the pro level and has a chance of making the big club next season.
Upside: Top-9 forward with a chance for second line
1. Jesse Joensuu - RW, 2006 2nd round pick: Unlike Smith, Joensuu is not a serious candidate to play a regular role for the Islanders next season, but he is the Bridgeport prospect with the most upside potential. His modest stats aside – 14 goals in 47 games – the 6-4, 210-pound right wing has had an outstanding first year of pro after coming over from Finland and dedicating himself to the North American game. He has even had a few scraps with opposing heavyweights.
Joensuu’s education must continue in Bridgeport next season. If his development is a success, he could make the Islanders’ depth chart look a whole lot better in 2010-11.
Upside: Top-6 forward with a chance for first line
Comment on this story and prospects here. Trade talk, including a link to Greg Logan’s deadline story in today’s Newsday, is in the next thread. Comment Guidelines.
Greg Logan weighs in with a story on a potentially quiet trade deadline day for the Islanders, and adds speculation to my speculation that Chris Campoli and Sean Bergenheim could be on the block. Greg also has quotes from Garth Snow.
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In advance of all those Sunday NHL notes columns…
A high-ranking official at a Western Conference NHL team told Point Blank this afternoon that his team was putting together an offer that would have included a 2009 second round pick for Islanders center Doug Weight. The veteran center suffered a knee injury on Wednesday in New Jersey and is listed by the club as out for six weeks.
“We identified Weight about two weeks ago as one of our top targets…Doug and maybe one or two other guys with different teams,” said the official, a longtime friend who requested anonymity. “He was perfect for us because he proved with the Islanders this season he can still produce and run a power play. We thought he was someone we could get for a reasonable price.”
The source said his team had a “preliminary” conversation with Islanders general manager Garth Snow in hopes of landing Weight close to the March 4 trade deadline.
“I’m sure if we were offering our first round pick Snowy might have jumped on it right away,” said the official, laughing. “But we weren’t. We knew we’d have to give up a second round pick, and we were okay with that. Snowy would have pushed for a first and that wasn’t going to happen - but we might have been open to haggling with him over one of our mid-level prospects as a sweetener.”
Now it may all be moot – the interest, the offer, the added bids as Montreal was likely to join the competition.
“Most of these deals will happen on deadline day, maybe the night before,” said the source. “We weren’t ready to do a deal. We wanted more time to weigh all our options and we wanted to see Doug stay healthy and play well. I’m not even 100% sure the Islanders were going to trade him. We know they like Dougie and might keep him around.
“But yeah, when you consider all the injuries around the league and the pressure a team like Montreal is under, the Islanders would have heard plenty of decent offers for Weight. He probably was their most marketable asset.”
The good news for the hundreds of Islanders fans who wanted Weight back is that it could happen. Asked if his team – knowing Weight could be in their lineup by late March and in plenty of time for the playoffs – would still consider a deal, the source said, “Doubt it. Definitely not at the same price. And if that’s the case with us and the other teams, the Islanders will probably decide to hold on to Doug and start talks about next season.”
Comments.
Thanks for the company and the Commentary. For those who couldn’t join us, please read through the thread when you get a chance. Talking to sources and working on stories for the three-day weekend prevented me from sharing anything greatly insightful, but the readers always deliver.
Comments.
(Matt Duchene)
TSN has posted its “mid-season” list of the 30 best prospects in the draft.
In making the point yesterday in the Comments section about the wide disparity of top-30 lists on each NHL team table on draft day, I wrote this:
“For the upcoming draft, you’re going to have about 8-10 kids that just about all of the 30 teams agree on with the top 10 picks. After that, you will have as many as 60 draft prospects that at least one team will have ranked between 10-30.”
For this reason, the TSN list is a must-read for Islanders fans. More than a few of the youngsters ranked from about 12-on could be there when your team makes its three picks (so far) in the second round.
Here is their top 10 vs. the latest ranking from the staff of Point Blank:
TSN Point Blank
1. John Tavares 1. Tavares
2. Victor Hedman 2. Hedman
3. Matt Duchene 3. Duchene
4. Evander Kane 4. Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi
5. Brayden Schenn 5. Kane
6. Jared Cowan 6. Schenn
7. Svensson-Paajarvi 7. Cowen
8. Nazem Kadri 8. Jordan Schroeder (TSN ranks 12)
9. Scott Glennie (PB ranks 14) 9. Kadri
10. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (PB 12) 10. Ryan Ellis (TSN 13)
Brandon (WHL) forward Scott Glennie was shelved for the season after breaking his elbow in late January. Even before the injury, Glennie’s place on draft lists was all over the place. One scout we spoke to had the high scorer right there with Kadri and Schroeder in the 6-8 hole, others rate him as a mid to late-first round pick.
If the Islanders somehow acquire another first round pick, they likely would not use it on small puck-moving defenseman Ryan Ellis because they have prospects of his mold in the fold. But make no mistake: Ellis is an ace, will go in the top 15 and will have a long NHL career.
And if the Islanders acquire another first round pick, it will not be at the trade deadline now. If it happens, it would be at the draft - for example, the dealing of two second-rounders for a slot around 20th overall.
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Game Chat Saturday: As will be custom for most of the remaining road games, I will be around for in-game conversation Saturday afternoon as the Islanders play in Philadelphia. I will post a new blog entry prior to the game to get it started. Hope you can join us.
“New York Hockey This Week” with Don La Greca and another guy will be live on Sunday beginning at 11:00 am on 1050 ESPN Radio.
Comments.
1:25 pm, Iceworks - Looks like Jon Sim will return from semi-retirement and the Islanders will not recall a prospect for tomorrow’s matinee. Jeremy Colliton, Trevor Smith and your Bridgeport Sound Tigers host the Philadelphia Phantoms tonight, so if the kids are in the lineup at 7:00 pm in Connecticut they’re not playing a day game tomorrow in Philadelphia with the Islanders.
Since Sim has been persona non-grata for so long and has cleared waivers, makes you wonder why the team doesn’t send him to Bridgeport, move or release him so they can get another prospect in the lineup.
Here are the lines from today’s practice, with an eye-opening change among the kiddie corps:
Sim – Comrie – Guerin
Bergenheim – Nielsen – Okposo
Hilbert – Bailey – Jackman
Tambellini – Park – Comeau
The Bergie-Frans-KO trio is intriguing. Perhaps it’s another opportunity for young Sean to show what he can do. On paper, sounds like a good line for next season.
When asked by Chris King of Islanders Radio, coach Scott Gordon would not commit to his combinations for tomorrow, saying “These lines were about today’s practice.” That would be unique, practicing for an hour the day before a game with one set of combinations and then actually playing another.
Doubt it will happen, but really no biggie. What’s he got to lose?
ETC: Mark Streit was on the ice for extra work post-practice and is likely out for the Flyers game.
No official timeline yet for Trent Hunter, but he’s out tomorrow and Howie Rose speculated on Wednesday’s broadcast it could be at least a week to ten days.
***A quick note on the blog. Sorry, but I’m done giving polite private email pleadings/warnings to readers who continue to ignore the Comment guidelines.
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