BIG NIGHT IN TAVHEDUCH COUNTRY
The Night of the 8-point swing
If the Islanders eventually unveil a TAVARES or HEDMAN jersey on draft day, March 14 will be remembered as a key day and night. After the Islanders lost a hard-fought battle today in Boston (“gritty,” sayeth Newsday), there were two incredible occurences in the Tavheduch battle tonight.
Trailing 3-1 in Florida well into the third period, Tampa Bay scored with 6:18 and 3:30 left in regulation to send the game into overtime. With the shootout victory – thank you, Steve Stamkos – Tampa Bay brought two huge points to Tavheduch.
Trailing 3-1 in Buffalo well into the third period, Atlanta scored with 6:24 left and with 4 seconds left in regulation to send the game into overtime. With the shootout victory, Atlanta brought home two huge points.
Then to cap it off, John-Michael Liles scored in overtime to give Colorado two points management didn’t want a monumental victory in Edmonton.
Three visiting teams with nothing to play for, against three teams desperate for the points. The Tavheduch visitors all win. Maybe the hockey gods are rewarding the Islanders for playing hard.
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In their just-released Future Watch edition, the Hockey News ranks the top prospects in the 2009 NHL draft. THN obviously doesn’t believe in our Tavheduch Watch. They have John Tavares at 1 and Victor Hedman at 2 and Matt Duchene 6. They rank Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 3, Jared Cowen 4 and Evander Kane 5.
It’s either high praise for Cowen or a commentary on what they think of the rest that THN has Cowen – a 6-6 project stay-at-home defenseman out for the rest of the season with a knee injury – over Kane and Duchene.
Our reaction to this? Respectfully, we don’t care and we’re not budging. We believe in Duch. Utilizing our resources and our own eyes, we will continue to declare that Matt Duchene is the third-best prospect available in the June draft. Paajarvi-Svensson is very much in the conversation, but let’s face it: the Tavheduchpaa is even more awkward. Some teams might even seriously look at Evander Kane at 3, but we don’t. We like our top-3 draft picks to weigh more than 160 pounds.
We’re standing by Duchene as the clear-cut choice at 3.
THE TAVHEDUCH WATCH
1. Islanders 23-38-8 54 pts (69 games)
2. Tampa Bay 23-32-14 60 pts (69 games)
3. Atlanta 28-35-6 62 pts (69 games)
4. Phoenix 28-34-6 62 pts (69 games)
5. Colorado 31-37-1 63 pts (69 games)
TW Notes: The Islanders may start first-year pro Peter Mannino in goal this afternoon in Chicago and then do not play again until Friday. Let’s see how the Watch looks then. Welcome Phoenix, to Tavheduch country. Watch out for the Yotes, who can’t beat anybody. All teams in the Watch have 13 games remaining.
POINT BLANK 2009 DRAFT TOP 5
March 15, 2009
1. John Tavares, C, London (OHL)
2. Victor Hedman, D, Modo (Sweden)
3. Matt Duchene, C, Brampton (OHL), right
4. Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, LW, Timra-IK (Sweden)
5. Evander Kane, C, Vancouver (WHL)
Comments.
74 Responses to BIG NIGHT IN TAVHEDUCH COUNTRY
The Night of the 8-point swing
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Akeem says:
It’s absolutely astounding that TB has a whopping 14 overtime or shootout losses. That’s the Tavheduch x factor right there, CB…
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A last place finish leaves only a 25% chance of getting the first overall pick with the lottery system. It will guarantee nothing worse then the 2nd pick.
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I gotta say that MSP is a well deserved 3rd pick. From what I’ve seen he looks a little like Filatov but with better play making ability.
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Joe in Massapequa says:
Haha CB, you are pumped tonight. I was scoreboard watching all evening and thought today/tonight was huge. Again, not directed towards you but let’s not jinx anything yet. Haha.
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PSM says:
#3 Correct me if I am wrong but it’s actually a little more than 48% chance. Any team 6-14 that wins the lottery can only move up 4 spots therefore guaranteeing the worst team with the #1 pick. -
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I was giddy when I found out Hot Lanta and TB won and even more happy after watching Colorado win on HNIC. It all works out
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CB – Your “ticker” is off by an hour. Dude, the clocks changed a week ago. Get it together.
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CB, any idea why Tavares sat out tonight in his final regular season home game? I did not see his name in the box, and London scored 6 goals to boot.
Also, to clear this up, if the Isles finish 30th (last) the chance of winning the #1 pick is 48.2%. Yes, you may have read it’s only around 25%, but that’s of winning the pick outright. If a team 6 through 14 gets their ping pong ball picked, the Isles still retain the #1 slot. Hence the 48.2 number.
Either way, a 30th place finish guarantees 100% the 1 or 2 (read Tavares or Hedman). Unless there’s a trade involved [ducking].
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#6…
the last Place team gets 25% chance
29th 18.8%
28th 14.2%
27th 10.7%
26th 8.1%
25th 6.2%
this according to TSN. -
By “6 through 14″ above, I probably should have said “17th through 25th,” just to be clear.
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but you are right …I didn’t read that far into it when i looked up the odds. I wonder why TSN posted it that way.
Good job picking that up!! -
Re: #9…forget it. I see on the London website they didn’t want JT to make the long bus ride.
That’s my 3 comments in this thread. Good night!
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Mapisles2026 says:
Were pretty sure tampa would take hedman and atlanta would take JT. Any idea who the coyotes or avalanche would pick if the won the lottery?
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OhNoItsComeau57 says:
I agree about the yotes. Ive had my eye on them for awhile and they have been putrid. They did little last weekend to change that opinion. I also was looking at their schedule about a half hr ago and it is rough. 3 games against San Jose!
By my calculations we would need to be 5 wins better than them in only 13 games. Not an impossible feat but possible if they play very poorly. Luckily that means if they go 3-10 we would have to go 8-5 in the last 13. I think there is a decent chance they win more than 3 and id be a little surprised if we go 8-5 given our schedule.
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islesnut says:
It’s destiny for us to get Tavares. I said it the other night- you can just feel it.
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rob says:
In honor of Tavheduc the next point blank night should be the night of the draft lottery – Biggest night of the year for our organ-eye-zation
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JayK says:
Ken and Jay Dugan: I have yet to see a single website that clearly explains the difference between the 48.2% chance and the 25% change. You’ve got to figure it out yourself….as you did.
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Coach B says:
Can’t see cowan going in the top five, especially after his injury. Some team in the top five is going to be very happy with Evender Kane.
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coolhndluke says:
#14 no way Tampa takes Hedman over Tavares so please speak for yourself. Tavares is THE prize in this draft and there is no way they don’t take him. You just don’t pick to fill a need with 1st overall, you always pick the best player.
It is silly to think otherwise
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In todays Newsday-two stories by Mark Hermann, one on Tavares the other on Hedman.
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isles72 says:
the coyotes look pathetic out there cb
I’ve watched their last few games (for fantasy hockey reasons)and these guys have absolutely ZERO giddyup .
when does the Gretzky experiment fall on its sword ?
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Nova Scotia Isles Fan says:
IMHO:
1. Tampa desperately needs a stud defenceman;
2. There really isn’t much available in a solid puck moving #1 or #2 D-man on the UFA roll this year — Bouwmeester, Leopold, Komisarek seem to be about it;
3. Tampa has no $$ under the cap to buy a good Dman on the UFA roll anyway;
4. There has been talk of Lecavalier going to Montreal for a bunch of picks and prospects,
(a) Why would Vinny want that nightmare (and since he has a NMC, he can say no)? and
(b) Bob Gainey is also in a youth movement, so why would he trade away the farm to get one player, especially when he has very little cap space to play with himself?My conclusion is that, while there may be talk about TB taking Tavares in the #1 spot (should they get it), I suspect it may just to see what the Isles will ante up to make sure TB leaves Tavares to the #2 spot.
Question: If TB is in the #1 spot, what’s it worth to us to move up? The fans seem to have their collective hearts set on Tavares. Would Hedman be SUCH a disappointment?
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We need a prolific goal scorer and that is why our hearts are set on Taveres. But i will be honest with you all, Hedman could very well be another Potvin/Pronger in the making and I can definitely live with the #2 pick. I do believe the Isles will offer everything but the kitchen sink to Tampa if they end up with the first pick or anyone else for that matter. They would offer both #1 picks and a second rounder too just to move up one spot.
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Jimmy Mac says:
I can see Tampa taking Tavarses. Trade Vinny to Montreal in the summer. They can get Markov back in the deal.
Then they would have Tavarses and Stamkos for the next decade.
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23 do you really believe that Vinny would not waive his NMC to move to his hometown, the biggest hockey town in the NHL with the richest tradition? Please, the best thing for TB to do is trade him to a team like Montreal for a kings ransom combo of player, prospects and pick starting with Markov. Then draft the no brainer in Tavares and be set up the middle with young, CHEAP talent.
Montreal will have PLENTY of cap space as he has several players that are in a contract year so enough room will be there under the cap.
To suggest TB wont take Tavares is insane, if anything it gives them the best option to improve overall. Take off the Isles shaded glasses and look at it as in what is best for TB. If they get 1st overall they take Tavares, end of story.
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dally mac says:
If the Isles have the 2nd pick they will not sacrifice anything to move up. Now they might take suitors for the first pick if enough is offered. And the odds are 48.2% chance in the first pick spot. The 25% is the chances of the last place team out-right winning the lottery. However, the other 23% comes if a team not in the top five wins it. Teams 6-14 have tiny percentages of winning and move up 4 spots. They all added together add to about 23%. So we don’t have to win the lottery to garner the first pick, somone 6-14 could win as well and it does not affect us then. Best I can do for an explaination. So last place at least gets you Hedman.
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The Isles will not “take suitors for the first pick if enough is offered” because no team will offer enough for the Isles to do the unthinkable and trade the pick.
No way the team with first overall takes anyone but Tavares, no way, no how, not going to happen. Maybe in fantasyland.
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John Tavares says:
I will be an Islander
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Oh Please don’t let the Isles end up with your #4 prospect. I’ll never be able to pronounce it OR spell it… EVER…
Besides I’ve been practicing “Tavares” for weeks now. Think I’ve got it down pat. ;o) -
CB, or anyone else on this blog – I have a question. Was Steve Stamkos as talked about at this point in the season as John Tavares currently is? I remember a few things but not as much as this year.
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Mike from Philly says:
Jay – Actually a last place finish guarantees a 48% chance of the 1st overall pick
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The PolishPrince says:
Nice article on Tavares in today’s Newsday. Great talent and he’s got some Polish blood in him. What’s not to like?
So, say the Isles end up with #2 and JT goes #1 overall. Do you think they grab Hedman at #2 or trade down to #3 and grab Dushene? I know trading down is a big bone of contension after last year so I’m hesitant to bring it up but does anyone think it’s a posibility? -
jonsson3 says:
go flyers
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eye on the island says:
isles nation,
has the debate finally been settled?
is tavares now the clear cut number 1 overall??
I mean can anyone find any serious flaw on this kid, outside of the nitpicking that comes along with being the most heralded
player in Canada since sid the kid?? -
Joe – Stamkos was talked about but NOT even close to the degree that Tavares and Crosby were (in no way am I comparing the two). Tavares and Crosby are two of the most talked about picks over the past 5 10 years.
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Stamkos did have a buzz to his name as well this time last year. I remember Boss’s face the day of the lottery when we got the #5 pick, he was so disapointed. Stamkos had a great rep and everyone wanted him last year just like everyone wants Taveras. Stamkos did not have as successful or eye opening WJC like Taveras though.
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Let’s have the rags miss the playoffs!…Then They win the lottery, and the Isles get the first pick. Sweet!!!
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It all depends on who is sitting in second spot, if the Islanders would consider trading down. Let’s say Phoenix was there and offered to switch places give us Mueller or Turris plus their other first rounder to get Tavares at #1. Do you do the trade…that now would include Mueller or Turris, Hedman, and Calgary’s 1st. All a matter of speculation, but as a fan do you do it. Just do you do it? Not the….that will never happen scenario.
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daily mac,
i have to say no. i think at this point the islanders have to focus on ceiling and tavares has a higher ceiling then any of the aforementioned players.
now obviously a ceiling isn’t a guarantee, but if tavares’ is a 100 point a season player, plus a great crunch time player, then really there are only a few players in the league you give that up for-ovie, malkin, etc.
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#40 – If I’m Snow and I’m holding the #1 overall I don’t think I do that trade I just take Tavares and smile for the camera! I was more curious as to whether or not the Isles move down a spot if they already miss out on Tavares at #1.
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Pat says:
# 40 and 42 – Even Mr. Milbury would hold THIS # 1 pick and keep it. He would trade the 2 pick but not the 1 pick.
Big night last night –
Lehtonen is playing strong goal for Atlanta – they are starting to “fade” — Tampa is still the team that scares me….. But have they found a goalie in Ramo ? The goaltending has been downright scary in Tampa.
PHX and COL only become a problem if WE make them one. If we can just go on a quick losing streak – maybe “lose out” the road trip ( with each game being decided by a goal – where the Refs make a bad call or the “Booth in Toronto” rules against us to cost us a game – so we can blame THE REFS for the loss) – and get a comfortable cushion and take a commanding lead in the Tavheduch derby — THEN we can go out in April and win our home games…..but the big prize has to be kept in mind. Next year could be a lot of fun……..and if we stay healthy – you never know !
Pat
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Doug F. says:
#40 they might if they didn’t think Hedman was the real deal. He really didn’t look good in the World Junior championships in Dec/Jan. A possible scenario (if the Isles have the # 2 pick and Tavares is off the board) would be the Isles signing Gilroy in March, dropping down a pick or 2 and pick Duchene and trade the other #1 for get a goal scorer, then in July, spend a lot of money for Komiserak.
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joey303 says:
My 2 cents……I believe the Islanders will finish last by 3 points, and lose the lottery. I can feel it. Sorry fellow PB’ers, Im sure many of you feel the same way. I would like the curse on this team to finally be removed. Any ideas?
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Some other factors in the draft race.Phoenix,Colorado and Atlanta all have 5 more wins than the Islanders so if they finished even in points they Isles would win a tie breaker. Tampa has the same win total as the Isles so it is best to finnish behind them in points.
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To be fair, we need both Hedman and Tavares. We need that number one stud defenseman that we sorely lack, and we need that number one center that we haven’t had in god knows how long. I will be happy with either or. If I had to make the choice, I would choose Tavares first for the excitement factor, however, I will take Hedman if that is what we are given, and I will have a smile on my face the entire way home…
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Doug (40),
Taking Gilroy instead of Hedman isn’t an even trade off. CB himself has said most scouts feel Hedman is as close to the real deal as Tavares is, just on the defensive side, so he doesn’t get as much hype. I would just pick Hedman if I were Garth, unless I could drop down a few picks AND get that team’s #1 next year. For a player like Hedman, that may be an askable price. -
19 Isle in NJ 22 says:
Pete DeBenedetto ~ On the previous thread you asked what the magic # for the Isles to clinch last place. There’s 26 points (13 games) left on the board for all 5 teams including the Isles. With the Isles 6 points behind Tampa that makes 21 points the M# for Tampa, 20 points for Atlanta & Phoenix and 19 points for Colorado. Any combo of Isles’ loss of points and any of the above team’s gain of points knock down that magic #.
Keep in mind Tampa and the Isles face each other one more time .. That is a huge 4 point game. Tampa and Atlanta face each other 2 more times.
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Ammend the previous post … made a mistake … it’s 19 points for Atlanta and Pheonix and 18 points for Colorado.
If Isles lose in regulation only 6 of 13 more games that knocks of 12 points right there alone .. which would require Tampa to win only 4 and 1 OT/SO Loss.
Keeping my other eye on falling like a rock Pheonix though.
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JoeRiverside says:
ANSWER: LAST PLACE TEAM HAS 48.2% CHANCE FOR NO. 1 Pick
Here’s how it works:As a Finance guy, I finally can add something of value to this site.
1. Key point is that there is only one winner for the NHL lottery. The Lottery winner gets the No. 1 pick. The next picks are based on record
2. A team can only move up 4 spots. Therefore only the bottom 5 teams can win the No.1 pick.
3. If a team that that did not finish in the “Worse 5” wins the lottery, they cannot move enough spots to grab the No.1 pick. In this situation the worst team will get the #1 pick.
4. Therefore the worse team has 48.2 of grabbing the No. 1 pick. (25% of winning the lottery themselves + 23.2% chance of teams 6-14 winning draft (which will deliver No 1. pick to the worse team.A little confusing, but if you read carefully it does add up. The lottery odds for the No 1 pick for the bottom 14 teams are as follows:
25.0%
18.8%
14.2%
10.7%
8.1%
next 9 teams – 23.2%JoeRiverside
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Last post of 3 … I think the Isles should take Hedman if they draft #2 … still a player with super star potential.
I don’t feel comfortable yet making plans for a #1 pick. As per my magic number calculations, there’s still a way to go, but if it has to be said, Tavares is my own personal uncontested #1 choice. Maybe if they lose to Chicago this afternoon it will clear the fog a bit.
I think we can count out Ottawa and above from being caught by the Isles.
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Anyone know the last team, in any sport, to finish a season last in the league and have a record over .500 at home?
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My last post on this threat – let’s say the stars align and JT ends up an Islander. Now does that make it more attractive for UFAs to come to Long Island again (Mike Komisarek)? Or is the whole arena thing still the issue?
JT is made out like the guy you market around. You would see him all over the place for season ticket plans, merchandise, local commercials, etc. Kind of like putting us back on the map so to speak.
Tavares
Okposo
Baily
Neilson
Hunter
Bergy
Comeau
Tambellini
Park
JackmanRechlicz
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Matt says:
watch out for Phoenix. can we see another tavares to phoenix like we saw crosby to pitt? similar situation.
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nyislanders93 says:
Only a few more losses for us and a couple more wins from TB, PHX, and ATL and I think we have last place secured. There are 13 games left. Say we go 6-6-1 which is giving a lot of credit to the team considering that the team still faces Chicago today, Carolina twice, the Red Wings, the Flyers twice, the Capitals, the Penguins, and the Bruins. The rest of the games are against the bottom half of the teams in the standings. Going 6-6-1 ends the season with 67 points. To say that the rest of the teams aren’t going to be able to put up 7 or less points is quite insane.
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Guys… if we are fortunate enough to get either Tavarses or Hedman we will be in great shape.
Both are top notch at their positions.
I want Tavarses on this team, but a little part of me thinks Hedman could be greater than Tavarses in 5 years.
A 6’6″ 220 pound smooth skating defenceman with good hands that is already playing with men at age 18 doesn’t sound too bad.
I can already see Streit and Hedman on the points on the powerplay.
But Tavarses will sell tickets, merchandise, and give the Isles a boost like they haven’t had in years.
Just don’t be disappointed if we end up with the 2nd overall pick.
We will be in a win/win situation.
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Marc says:
My 19-month old daughter is confused as to why I’ve been rooting for Isles’ losses and just about anything that dampens the Rag$ playoff picture!!! I hope that the Isles’ clinch last soon so I can start rooting for them to win!!! Does anyone know when the draft lottery will be held and if it will be televised? I believe last year’s was on Versus the night after the end of the regular season.
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ShardZ says:
If (knock on wood) the Isles get #1 overall, I’d like to see Snow really talk up [to the other GMs] the player he does not want. This way if #2 really wants the guy we don’t, they’ll hear the talk and consider throwing some value back at us in exchange for a swap. If this happens, we get “our” guy anyway and get some value out of it. If noone bites, we keep #1. Win-Win
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frank nyc says:
I have a question CB.
If the isles finish last and lose the lottery moving them back to the #2 spot, Do you believe the isles would trade down to maybe #3 or #4 to pick up Duchene instead of taking Hedman?
Do they value a projected #1 center more than a top 2 dman? -
Oh thank you to JoefromRiversideI I had come to the same conclusion that their chance of getting the #1 overall was greater than the 25% but I am not very good at math, so I couldnt figure out the exact number.
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Final post for me here lest I get booted. I agree with Jimmy@58 in that if we get any of the top three we will in good shape. Yes, the franchise could use Tavares badly but our chances are not great at nabbing #1 even if we finish dead last. If any of Tavheduch dons the blue and orange at the end of June I’ll be a happy fan. Enjoy your Sunday all.
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Goran says:
CB, Kane is a bigger kid than that. He is 6’1″ 180. This is an excerpt from an article I was reading about him: “And at 6”1’ and 180 lbs at just 17 years of age, scouts are eager to see how much bigger he will get.” Hers’s the link if you want to check the full article out. They have some very flattering words for Kane. http://national-hockey-league-nhl.suite101.com/article.cfm/evander_kane_2009_nhl_draft_profile
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Bossy22 says:
Better news….both phx and Atl should be considered as being 9 pts ahead, because they would own the tie break because of more wins. Assume today we had 4 more wins then we do now, we would still be behind those 2 teams because of total wins. TB of course is different. Essentially we are 5pts behind them, because we would win the tie break for more wins over them.
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dk the ises fan says:
even if we lose the lottery and tampa gets #1 they would most likely take Hedman considering they have Stamkos Lecavalier and St Louis up-front…. Lecavaleir to montreal seems unlikely
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#66, UHM wrong
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no way montreal gives up markov in a package for lecavaleir. Komisarek could very well be lost to free agency, gainey will not trade markov if komisarek is not signed its too big of a risk to lose your two best d-men as well as some prospects and a #1 pick for Lecavaleir.
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Aim says:
This is from John Tavaras agent as quoted in Canada
Me? If I could, I would avoid Tampa, Atlanta and the Island at all costs. But it’s not me. “John respects the process and the league,” Brisson said.This and that
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big jim says:
if we get jt this is what were gonna have to deal with,his arrogant agent if there is any truth to this last statement
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Thomas says:
Ugh…can we just contnue to lose road games like we did when these games mattered..if we end up with the 2nd worst record and don’t get either of these guys, it’s going to be a complete waste of a year. Wins at Montreal and Chicago? You have to be kidding. Maybe he should play Andy Hilbert 30 minutes a game to ensure some more loses. Annoying.
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Jim #70 I dont think i can post the link here but it was an article from Steve Simmons in Slam Sports
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Gary says:
Guys, don’t expect the Islanders to tank games just to get a pick in the top two. I e-mailed Garth about how good the team was looking and he said “we’ll play this hard the rest of the way and wherever we land we’ll utilize the pick.”
Thomas (#71) – How can you call yourself a fan and root for the team to lose like that. This is the nucleus of a good team we’re watching grow up right before our eyes and you want them to tank games. How does that help players develop. If getting Tavares or Hedman requires turning the players into losers instead of developing them to be winners, then I don’t want the early draft pick. You’ll get a good player deep into the draft. I want Tampa, Atlanta and the others to keep winning AND our boys to win. The future looks a hell of alot brighter since the deadline. Why risk throwing that away by tanking?
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Gary – I have been buying full season tickets personally since 2001, and before that my father was buying tickets all the way back into the late 80′s. I am TIRED of mediocrity. I want to see them win 1 playoff round in my post school life. Look at what Crosby has done for Pitt, Ovechkin for the Caps. That’s what I want. What does finishing 29th and winning games that don’t matter really do for us? Build character? Please..The younger players have developed sufficiently enough and I think Danis has proven how horrible the DP pick and contract is. I want them to finish last for the LONG term benefit of this team.
admin 
Actually the best part was the fact that almost every team in pursuit of slightly ahead of the Rangers in the playoff race picked up at least a point.