CUE BARENAKED LADIES
If I had a scouting service…(If I had…)
If I owned an independent scouting service - as opposed to an independent, “team-sponsored” blog - the last thing I would do is echo the chorus.
No, if I owned an independent scouting service and relied upon cash-paying subscribers signing up for the privilege of my expertise, I’d have to give them something different.
If I owned an independent scouting service and ranked John Tavares and Victor Hedman 1-2 (in any order), my work would be worthless. How could I promise my subscribers a perspective they won’t get anywhere else? How could I charge between $40 (for a 4-page report) and $275 (for the full 12-page newsletter)?
Here’s what I would do. I would put Hedman at No. 1 (can’t go too much against the grain) and then place Matt Duchene ahead of Tavares. I would over-analyze every shift of Tavares in the playoffs of his fourth and final season in the Ontario Hockey League. (Tavares is an awful 9-10-19 in 12 games). To really stir it up, I would criticize his “sense of entitlement.” I mean, he’s 18 years old. Grow up already, kid.
And then, if I had a scouting service, a few years later I would hope no one remember that I ranked Matt Duchene ahead of John Tavares.
Congrats, Kyle W. You’ve got people talking - always a good thing. I welcome a response. Sign up here for the Red Line Report. Comments. Comment Guidelines.
60 Responses to “CUE BARENAKED LADIES
If I had a scouting service…(If I had…)”
Please Wait
Hilarious, Great Post CB. I completely agree. We still need Tavares and everyone knows it.
Where is this independent scouting service?
Weak, dude. Red Line would risk its reputation and lots of future dollars for a few dollars in the present? Ask yourself if this really makes sense. “Hope” no one will remember they ranked Duchene ahead of Tavares, yet they’re doing this to make a splash and have the world NOTICE they are ranking Duchene ahead of Tavares?
In other words, there is NO SUBSTANCE behind this at all? REALLY? All of a sudden, Red Line feels the need to trump the other scouting services when it could’ve done so last year (Petrov over Filatov, Doughty over Stamkos, Wilson over Stamkos, Hodgson over Stamkos), or any of a number of previous years (Malkin over Ovechkin, saying Marc-Andre Fleury was gonna be garbage, any scenario involving the prediction that Crosby would be an abortion in two of three zones on the ice)?
For some reason, I highly doubt this is a gimmick. You hear whispers that Tavares looks like crap in every area of the game except the power play and hanging out in front of the net. Do I want the next Pronger/Niedermayer/Chara man-child or do I want the immortal Ilya Kovalchuk, who no doubt fills the seats in Atlanta with his allergy to backchecking and actually giving a crap? And is it possible that Matt Duchene is actually a good amount of awesome?
I mean, I’ve never seen these guys play, I’m just going off what I hear these days…
Now that the NYI own the pick, there will be all sorts of propaganda to try and debunk the Tavares hype. Brian Burke is behind this. By draft day Tavares will be ranked #7. Irony, I dont think so.
what a little turd. That video was so bush-league. Hilarious CB.
CB, you are not a scout. Kyle Woodlief is a former NHL scout for the Predators, and employs scouts to watch players all over the world. He has been doing this for years, and his stuff is read by all the teams. A few weeks ago, you came out in favor of Tavares because 1) he has a lot of points, 2) has been hyped for years, and 3) was the “consensus best player available.” But as soon as a legitimate scouting service contradicts your opinion, you basically dismiss it. I am not saying that we should all bow down to Kyle Woodlief, but aren’t we being a bit hypocritical? When everybody loved JT, you said we should take him b/c he’s the consensus number one. But when those same scouts start questioning JT, you say we should ignore it b/c they are just trying to make money. It doesn’t make sense.
Good for you Chris. I could not agree more. And #3-it’s hard to take anyone who uses the word “dude” in conversation seriously.
Mikey, the whole point is when this all happened. None of these guys came out and said this stuff before the lottery. Now they are all coming out of the woodwork. You cannot tell me that it doesn’t seem pretty suspect.
I believe that Kyle Woodlief respects Ryan Janowski and Ive heard that he has a pretty high opinion of him. So, take that for whatever its worth!
In media, everyone remembers now and a few people remember the past. I’ve never read an article bashing a scouting service for their past projections. But teams get railed all the time for who they did/didn’t select… Hockey Mythbusters: Theory is plausible.
Good one CB! We need JT but there are plenty of people who are analyzing him to death. His numbers speak for themselves.
CB I understand your point.but this whole thing is getting a little out of hand. There is no conspiracy Burke isn’t behind this. Everyone needs to relax there is 2 months to the draft.
During Tambelini’s draft year, this scouting service stated that Tambelini had a knack for finding the open ice to score goals.
In 09, such a statement could not be further from reality…
It’s just as easy to find issues with a prospect as it is to overpromote positive characteristics.
As CB implies, Woodlief has a vested interest in going against the grain in a longstanding two horse race. Throw a curveball in there and one’s interest to open the wallet to see what is behind Door #1 increases dramatically.
ITs all playing IN Burkes hands right now. This is like Telephone. Instead we start this little rumor and watch it grow. I hope to GOD GAR and Janks do the right thing and pick Tavares.
To be honest, I’ve always enjoyed Woodlief.
CB…in few years time Kyle Woodlief will smile and enjoy while reading the article You’ve written today…
Logan reporting that Snow and Wang are watching Tavares in person tonight at game 4.
Adam (8) - I understand your point re timing, but this report from Woodlief was released to his subscribers days BEFORE the lottery. A poster from Islandermania subscribes to the service and was talking about it a few days before the lottery. There is no conspiracy here with Burke and Woodlief. Woodlief has a certain take on this, and I’m sure opinions differ widely. That’s why the Isles employ their own scouts.
Yes, that whole he does not skate well analysis did wonders for those teams that past up on Paraise. Sounds like Woodleif is on Burkes payroll! If he scores 40 goals per seasaon i could live with that!!!
here is their ranking in may 08:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2008-05-20-red-line_N.htm
filatov ahead of doughty, bodker ahead of pieterangelo and schenn, petrov ahead of hodgson. I hope he is right about petrov.
March of this year:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2009-03-20-red-line-report_N.htm
what happened from march to now, that suddenly tavares drops from 1 to 3. This is probably the one they truly believe in, the current rankings is the money maker.
Yea…as if this wasn’t the inevitable and already used theory on Woodlief’s report.
Bold statement to attack his credibility. I would hope that you had something to back that up other than the -
“If I had a …”
Maybe you do, and you aren’t saying…But to just question the guys character and credibility based exclusively on the fact that he will probably make a few extra bucks by not joining the “consensus” is questionable on your part. You just painted the guy with the same brush that you did Eklund.
CB…you may be right, but I have a hard time believing Woodleif would do this unless he had a reason to. Don’t scouts pride themsleves in watching and analyzing hockey players? I just think he honestly feels this way about the 3 players. I’m sure if he was ranking the ability to score goals he would put tavares first. I think he just believes that Duchene will be the better all around player, and he’s telling us why.
Meh.
I really dont care who has who ranked wherever.
Hopefully the Isles will do a great job scouting and pick the player they feel is best for the Islanders.
I think this post is a little unfair. CB, you really think that a service that does charge that much money would give reports they don’t believe in? So what if they make a few extra bucks this year and it turns out they were wrong, they won’t make much money in the future because people don’t forget.
I love this blog and agree with most of what you say CB, but I can’t say I am on board with this one.
I like Woodlief. He is not the only one who has Hedman rated as the best player in the draft. In the pointblank poll Tavares crushed Hedman. With the scouts the Hedman-Tavares thing is very close. Tavares third make does make a good story but likely will not happen. Could Duchene be better, time will tell.
#17, got a link, I don’t see that on Logie’s blog.
I just saw that Dale Hunter is Taveras coach, does he teach cheap shots in practice? Just wondering.
CB, unrelated but it looks like no Bergie in the WC ( http://tinyurl.com/cywrd8 ) Any word on why?
I don’t think it’s a conspiracy … but CB has a point … why would you spend all that time with scouts and creating a subscriber service only to churn out the same exact ratings as ISS and CSS?
I can put holes in every NHL superstars’ game … and I’m sure since RLR has no vested interest in the results of the draft they can go out on a limb.
If we read that Globe and Mail article … and took out all the pro-nouns … would you know what teams and what players they were talking about? Probably not.
Chris, I was not sure where to post this but my favorite Islander of all time was Tommy Salo. I know about the whole Milbury making Salo cry story but do you have any stories about Salo during his time as an Islander?
whats up CB. I have been hearing some rumors from people inside the islander organization that DP is done but i refuse to believe it. Just wondering if you would have any scoop on the situation?
Moose (24) there is a short write-up of it on Logan’s blog. Also, if anyone cares to listen to the game on the comp, the link is http://www.cjbk.com/player/player.
Thanks for keeping it real, CB.
I don’t know that the perceived value of a scouting service is limited to its ranking of the top three prospects in any given draft…
Great job CB. I wrote the same thing in comments back when this first came up (I tried but I cant find it.) Back then I pointed out that Red Line Report did the same thing last year when it put Nikita Filatov at #2 ahead of Drew Doughty and dropped Alex Pietrangelo to 7th.
http://www.redlinereport.com/mocdrafts.pdf
My reasons then were the same as CB now. They can’t make a name for themselves, or get paid the big bucks, going with the pack. Red Line is hoping that when the inevitable bust comes people will say, “Hey Redline said ‘Flitov’ or ‘Duchene’, or ‘whoever they over-hype next year or the year after’ should have been ranked ahead of ______. They must have a crystal ball or something.” There is no cost to them to be wrong as prognosticator’s misses are quickly forgotten. People only remember the hits, mostly because the prognosticators themselves, or their allies, keep reminding the world when they are right. (Often it is the exact opposite for the GMs whose picks are reevaluated for years and years). It’s the same for the wacky trade deals that some sites promote as fact. If a chimp throws a dart at a board long enough, he’ll eventually hit a bulls eye. Then the chimp can charge more for its “prognostications.”
Chris I am actually sad for you if this is what you truly believe. When I read this, I thought that one of the members of the booster club hacked into the blog and posted this. Surely you can’t REALLY THINK that Kyle did this just to sell some subscriptions. I mean, yeah he’s got a business to run but the man is an accomplished NHL scout and you worked for the worst run organization in all of sports that has re-wrote the book on mismanagement (Along with the Clippers). I am really disappointed to think you actually believe this Chris.
woodlief was a scout for the predators fired for incompetence,
http://www.tsn.ca/draftcentre/story/?id=275062
there Mckenzie says 9 of 10 currently employed scouts say taveras
Woodlief does need to eat and feed his kids however, so you cant blame him too much
All of you are reaching to the deepest depths of nonsense if you think this is a premeditated effort to sell subscriptions or worse, be involved in a conspiracy with the Canadian press. Like Chris has said himself, what scout at this point doesn’t know enough about the top picks in the draft this year? I haven’t read such nonsense since I don’t know when.
Also … how did Nashville make out with Kyle Woodlief scouting? Especially the middle rounds where it counts as much as the mostly slam dunk top 10 picks. I’m just curious.
We’re all savvy enough as fans to watch games and pick the Thoroughbreds from the Ponies. The science of scouting mostly gauges the potential of players … and as G&M’s David Shoalts’ anonymous scout did correctly point out … you have to determine if a player is at 30% of potential … 50% etc … his comment about JT scoring 40-50 goals a year and not being a franchise player however kinda discredits him.
thanks for straightening me out. i’d not known of that guy and was thinking ‘what the hell?’
that right there is why this site is great.
If you looked hard enough you could find “9 of 10″ scouts who rank Hedman over Tavares…
If you look hard enough you could find scouts ranking people all across the top 10 that you wouldnt expect. That’s the beauty of the draft, NHL.. NFL.. NBA.. whatever it may be, it is a crapshoot. Most scouts are basing their rankings on the times they themselves had seen the players play.
Are people claiming it is impossible for Kyle to determine JT isn’t #1? Maybe each and every time he watched Victor Hedman play.. Hedman scored a goal, or laid someone out. Maybe everytime Kyle saw Matt Duchene play he skated around the competition and potted some big goals. Maybe every time Kyle watched JT play, he wasn’t playing his sharpest hockey (we are all human - that happens).
Maybe K.W. has had more influential experiences watching Hedman and Duchene and he can’t say the same for JT. As hockey fans and bloggers, we dont know what games Kyle has seen, or what he is basing these rankings on.
Does it even matter? In the end, his guess is as good as Chris’.
I find woodlief’s comparison of jt’s game to b hull’s game a little weird .Hull was a sniper being fed by oates/modano etc. while JT can snipe/play a power game/stickhandle with skill in tight .
btw , the barenaked ladies are a canadian band -I hear they might want to trade up to become the Stones
Anyone think colorado is hoping Duchene and not Tavares is still available at #3?
Guys (and gals): Maybe its just that you cant simply rank people clearly and absolutely in number order?
Perhaps, depending on what one thinks is more valuable, and what that player happened to have for breakfast the day a particular scout saw them, rankings can change? Why is that so unfathomable to some?
I agree with CB that different scouting reports want things to be different. If they didnt mix it up, nobody would want to read them. But I see nothing disingenuous about that- nor do I think that CB was implying that. Different scouting reports are based on varied amounts of viewing players, saw them at different times, have different priorities, etc. That just how it is.
But, Im sure some organizations might care more about some reports more than other reports.
BTW- was it Redline that had Bailey higher than the other scouting reports?
Logan has a new article up about Tavares’ agent saying that JT hopes to be drafted by the Isles - for all the JT supporters out there that might have some worries check it out it should make you feel better
If redline released this before the lottery, that makes it even more suspect in my opinion. Why not release it right when the hype of the draft was gonna start on lottery night. If anything it would benefit burke coming out before the lottery because if even the isles had #2 instead of #1 they still woulda had a great shot at tavares.
The kid broke Gretzky’s junior goal scoring record. Pontificate all you want, you draft him and hope. You dont pass on the possibility of greatness.
It is interesting however, now as the lottery is drawn all the negative scouting reports start to crop up. If Toronto was poised to take him I can guarantee the media frenzy and scouts would be singing a different toon.
I think this kid is gonna be a prolific goal scorer. He is no Daigle. Daigles junior stats where nothing like JT. Moving on Hedmen is no Pronger.
You draft John Tavares and try to add supporting cast. Rebuild on schedule.
Of course London has a crap game when Snow and Wang are in attendance
everyone wants tavares bad, so do I, but what if we bet an eric lindros type offer for the first pick? Stamkos, second overal, their second round pick, Malone, whoever else, why not take hedman at two? Or lets say Smyth, (and I was a big detractor when he played at NVMC this year) Wolski, Hannan, thrd overall and their second. Is duchene the wrong pick then? Burke is crazy, but shouldn’t Garth at least listen to reasonable, or outrageous offers?
The final word on Tavares: even playing hurt he is scoring almost two points a game in the playoffs. Nuff said.
The final word on RLR: clear attention grabber- just think about how many people never even heard of RLR before this very controversial (to say the least!) ranking came out. Think about that!
Tavares’s agent, Pat Brisson, also represents Jagr…
Rob76, thanks for that info. Between Streit and Gordon wanting a sniper and this info I think it is safe to say JT will be an Islander.
Blizzard….EXACTLTY! Enough with people over analyzing this and then thinking they are slick with all these trade scenarios that are never going to happen.
blitz - are you suggesting that we could sign jagr if we draft tavares? now that would be interesting.
There is still over 9 weeks before the draft … we are going to see a lot more fire works over what to do with the first round pick and who is the better play … and scouting reports … blah blah blah … We’re all going to drive ourselves nuts at this rate. LOL!!! 6/26 can’t come soon enough.
Thats the problem. too much time before the draft. Either we must find something else to do or it might be fun to try and figure out what will happen late first, early second round.
redline does not make its money trying to figure out who is #1 in the draft. the islanders, and all other nhl teams only have the manpower on their scouting team to thoroughly scout a small number of players the entire year. a lot of teams rely on the independent scouting reports to get an all-encompassing idea of what is in every single canadian junior league, D1 college, europe, russia, etc. redline has little to gain by ranking duchene ahead of tavares. duchene is a player who is improving at a much greater rate over tavares. tavares is much better at this time, but not improving at the level of duchene. draft duchene. end of story.
What I found amusing about this article is they compared him to Brett Hull in a negative way. Say what? Hull Jr was a great player who won two Stanley Cups. I will be ecstatic if Tavares as an Islander can duplicate which Brett Hull did. I’ll take some baggage if he can perform, many athletes are like that.
This is a Great Post. Sarcasm is an art.
Hey Smokey#3,if GM’S around the NHL simply evaluated by what they heard,there would be chaotic turnover due to their being relieved of their duties. Marketing is a science. The key to success in a competitive business is differentiation of product. That is just what Red Line is doing. Even if they are proven wrong,their sensationalism will continue to attract those that want something different without regard to accuracy. That is the market they are targeting. Although Chris took the sarcastic,comical approach,he was dead on accurate!!! Hopefully our GM doesn’t read the National Enquirer!!
honestly there are some crazy things being posted here. a little enlightenment:
Tavares is in his 4th year of junior year hockey. Duchesne is in his 2nd. It gets harder and harder to stay motivated in junior when the draft is coming up. Tavares is more a finished product than Duchene. Tavares is closer to being the player he will be than Duchene, who had potentially more upside.
Tavares is scaring scouts like Woodlief because they have seen “can’t miss” prospects with big gaudy point totals bomb out in the pros. One need look no further than Pavel Brendl to understand what I am saying here. The diff between Tavares and Brendl however is that Tavares is a winner and has shown two years in a row at the WJC that he plays well on a big stage. But his OHL playoff performances have been underwhelming. He is getting his points, but only on the power play and he is not scoring clutch goals in the playoffs. His lack of all around play is also a concern.
To the poster who brought up Parise - no scout in his right mind would have recommended taking Parise in the top 5 of the 2003 Draft and yet he is arguably one of the top 5 players from that draft. You referenced his skating - some players improve their skating post draft and some don’t. Parise didn’t have a lot of size and came out of a high school program instead of major junior. He wasn’t playing against world class competition on a nightly basis so that makes it harder to evaluate him as a scout. This is why scouts make the big bucks and often times push their GM’s to trade up to get a player at a certain spot.
Another example - look at Thomas Hickey. When he was taken at #4 in the 2007 Draft there was a lot of head scratching. Since then he has won two golds at the WJC - 1 as captain of the team, and turned into one of the most highly rated defense prospects not in the NHL. Scouting services provide critical information and GM’s have to make tough decisions, sometimes going against the grain of prognosticators and the fans of a team. There was a lot of booing in Los Angeles when Hickey was taken - LA Kings look pretty smart now.