Monthly Archives: April 2009
I’ve been invited to be the guest speaker at the next gathering of the New York Islanders Booster Club. The event is next Tuesday, May 5 at 7:30 pm at the Long Island Marriott in the downstairs Ampitheatre. Instead of the $5 admission usually charged if you are not a member of the NYIBC, the club asks that you bring canned goods that will then be donated to the U.S. Postal Service food drive.
It wasn’t planned this way, but May 5 happens to be the one-year anniversary of my departure after 20 years in the Islanders’ front office. I’ll do my best to share some good stories. Hope some of you can make it.
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“You CAN draft skill in the later rounds – look where the Red Wings got Zetterberg and Datsyuk.”
An oft-repeated Reader Comment
Respectfully, it’s time to retire that one.
The Detroit organization has been exceptional at drafting and developing talent from a wide range of sources. There’s a reason assistant GM Jim Nill is interviewed for GM jobs and a reason the Red Wings do everything to keep him.
The drafting of Pavel Datsyuk 171st overall in 1998 and Henrik Zetterberg 210th overall in 1999 was an unparalleled combination of back-to-back scouting finds. They’re so good, they will help the Red Wings be a consistent contender for over a decade.
But think about this for a moment: do you really think the Red Wings themselves had any idea Datsyuk and Zetterberg would become great NHL players?
It’s true that one of the keys of drafting is making “value picks.” For example, if you know a player has almost no chance of being drafted before the fifth round, there’s no reason to take him in the first. Every team has a few guys on their list as their little secrets. I saw first-hand at the draft table how the Islanders kept Radek Martinek in their back pocket until the 228th overall pick in 1999 (they could have had Zetterberg 18 picks earlier!)
You can bank on this. If the Red Wings scouts truly knew Datsyuk and Zetterberg were going to be perennial all-stars, they would never have waited so long to take them. They might not have used a first or even a second round pick on them, but they would not have chosen Jari Tolsa (120th overall), Andrei Maximenko (149th) and Kent McDonell (181st) with their only three draft selections before tabbing Zetterberg.
Before they finally drafted Datsyuk, they would not have used rounds 2-5 to take Ryan Barnes, Tomek Valtonen, Jake McCracken, Brent Hobday, Calle Steen and Adam DeLeeuw.
The Datsyuk and Zetterberg picks were amazing. They were the stuff of which champions and legendary scouting careers are born. But don’t think teams – even as great as Detroit – have the ability to make a habit of it. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are the only A-list NHLers the Red Wings have produced in the late rounds since 1995. Other than the since-waived Kyle Quincey and maybe Darren Helm, they haven’t drafted any B-listers in the late rounds in the last 14 years either.
The New Jersey Devils are the NHL’s other standard-bearer for drafting and development. Led by prospect guru David Conte, the Devils took Paul Martin in the second round in 2000, Brian Gionta in the third round in 1998 and Colin White in the second round in 1996. They were also smart enough to stop the insanity in 2003 and move up in the first round to…well, you know.
But do you know the last three-star NHLer the Devils drafted in the fourth round or later?
Chris Mason, in the fourth round of the 1995 draft. Twelve years and several organizations later (including multiple stops in Nashville) Mason became a No. 1 goalie with the Predators.
Of course, it’s easy to list the outstanding players picked late in the draft in the last 30 years. But if it were so easy to actually draft late-round gems, Nill and Detroit and Conte and New Jersey – widely considered the best at the draft game - would find them more often than once or twice every 15 years.
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The Islanders have traded Bill Guerin to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a third round pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.
The captain gave the Islanders a season and three-quarters of solid leadership and play, but struggled to score goals in his final months with the team and saw his icetime cut by about four minutes per game. This season the 38-year old Guerin scored 16 goals in 61 games for the Islanders.
Guerin should see some power play time with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin and his leadership and experience should prove invaluable to the Penguins in the playoffs. Best of luck to Guerin as he pursues his second Stanley Cup ring.
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If Jonas Hiller and the Anaheim Ducks defeat the San Jose Sharks tonight or in Game 6 or Game 7, the Islanders’ second first round pick in June will be the 26th overall selection.
This is official, set in stone, gospel according to the National Hockey League. The draft seeding works like this, as per an email we received late last night for clarification – once and for all – on the subject:
30th overall draft pick - Stanley Cup winner
29th - Stanley Cup finalist
28th - Conference final runner-up
27th - Conference final runner-up
26th - Regular season division-winning clubs eliminated at any point in the first two rounds of the playoffs, in inverse order of points
The Islanders acquired the first round pick from Ottawa, which acquired it from San Jose. The Islanders traded Chris Campoli and Mike Comrie for the pick and Dean McAmmond. The San Jose Sharks won their division and had the most points in the entire league.
If the Sharks lose in the first round to Anaheim or in the second round, the Islanders will be the owner of the 26th overall selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.
Should the Sharks lose in the first round to Anaheim or in the second round, we can begin the needle-in-the-haystack process of trying to figure out which prospect the Islanders get with the pick. There’s also the chance of Garth Snow trading up to somewhere in the 15-20 range if one of the top players on Ryan Jankowski’s draft board is still around.
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9:25 pm - Further proof the NYI prospect pool needs more development and more talented youngsters to develop. Jesse Joensuu and Justin DiBenedetto get the goals tonight, a good thing. What isn’t is the fact that – NHLer Blake Comeau aside – not one Sound Tiger is close to a sure thing to jump into the Islanders’ lineup on a regular basis next season. This was the perception going into the first round playoff series. Not nearly enough happened in Bridgeport’s loss to the Penguins in five games to change that perception. Talk AHL and NHL hockey here within the Guidelines.
Yes, O’ Hockey Gods, gurus, patrons and bloggers, there is the argument that supercedes all others – that at the end of the day, what matters most is winning games. And winning, and only winning, is what will ultimately fill the arena in Nassau County on a nightly basis.
But the Islanders are certainly a unique case, that we can all agree on. So here’s what I’m wondering, and I’d like to hear from as many of you as possible.
After all the Islanders and their fans have been through and are currently going through, could the franchise and its followers endure this series of events in 2009-10?
- Passing on John Tavares with the first overall pick
- Drafting Victor Hedman or Matt Duchene, whether it’s at 1 or a trade to 2 or 3
- Not qualifying for the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs, perhaps not coming close
- Hedman having a real nice 10-25-35, plus-10 season for the Islanders. Or Duchene either playing one more year of junior or producing in the NHL a half-step above Josh Bailey (7-18-25 as a rookie this year)
- Watching Tavares – predicted by even his strongest critics to be a 40-50 goal scorer in the NHL – post stats for another team a little above Steven Stamkos (23-23-46 with Tampa Bay this year) and be heralded as the league’s next offensive star.
This series of events is not the result of an active imagination. It could quite easily happen. Short of a trio of impact free agent signings and a blockbuster trade where they benefit by providing a team major cap relief, the Islanders are far from a sure-shot playoff team next season. Hedman and Duchene could have good seasons and post the stats projected. Tavares should at least match the goal and assist totals of Stamkos, last June’s first overall pick.
There’s no need, really, to get into the health of Rick DiPietro or other unpredictable factors. We also don’t need to re-visit the various scouting service reports on Tavares, Hedman and Duchene.
Do I think the Islanders could survive the chain of events? The easy answer is Fisherman jersey…Gang of Four, Chain Gang of Two…Turgeon-Palffy-Luongo trades…Zach Parise…John Spano…Kate Murray and the Lighthouse Project (hey, it’s the Islanders’ version of “We Didn’t Start The Fire”!)
Or maybe the answer is the Islanders cannot afford to pass up the opportunity to have Hedman as a franchise defenseman, or trade down to acquire another good player and draft Duchene at 3. I want to know what you think.
Look at the bullet points. Ask yourself: if the Islanders pass on Tavares, could this series of events unfold? Then ask yourself how you’d feel if it all really happened.
Write it down in Comments. One post per reader.
B.D. Gallof of Islanders Independent has a statement from Peter Schmitt to our story from earlier today. I guess the office got a few calls and emails. Funny thing: Schmitt comes back strong but doesn’t deny anything, doesn’t take a stand on anything, and kinda points a finger at Charles Wang. Comments.
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