Monthly Archives: April 2009
Playing for your Sound Tigers at the Coliseum on Friday and Saturday: Kyle Okposo, who embraced the opportunity more than a month ago in a conversation with us. This should have no effect on KO joining Team USA in time for the Worlds. Comments on Okposo in this thread, Lottery in next.
Bill Torrey didn’t have a Draft Lottery to deal with. When the Islanders finished last overall in their inaugural season of 1972-73, the general manager knew he had the No. 1 pick in the NHL Draft. He had another advantage.
“Back then we were drafting 20-year olds,” Torrey said over the phone today. “My scouts and I were evaluating players based on four full years of junior hockey. That’s a big difference from drafting 18-year olds who are still growing.”
The conversation continued…
I wanted to catch up with you to get the truth behind this legend of “The Architect built around a top defenseman first”! My point is, you had Denis Potvin staring at you with that pick. Maybe if you had a stud forward and not an all-world defenseman as the clear-cut first pick, you would have taken the forward.
That’s not entirely true. Denny Potvin was special, no doubt. But Tom Lysiak was the best forward available, and there was plenty of sentiment at the time for him to be taken first overall. Of course, Denny went on to have a Hall of Fame career, while Tommy was an excellent player, a 25-30 goal scorer for Atlanta and later Chicago. To put it in perspective, Denny was dominant in junior and Tommy Lysiak was coming off two big seasons in Medicine Hat (143 and 154 points). Potvin and Lysiak were 1-2 in no particular order in the eyes of many people.
Sounds kind of familiar.
Yup. They’ll be talking about John Tavares and Victor Hedman for years.
What swayed your decision toward Potvin?
We figured the great defenseman, especially in the big games, was going to play every other shift, play more than half the game. Even the best forwards don’t match that time on ice. We went with the defenseman because we knew he’d be out there all the time for us. Look at Anaheim when they got Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer.
So are you saying the team that gets the first pick should take Victor Hedman?
No. When you’re picking first overall and you have two kids of this magnitude, it’s okay to assess what your needs are.
What if you need everything?
Now you’re trying to get me to make the first pick for a team! (Laughs) I’m not going to do that. I’ve met Tavares and Hedman each once. I’ve watched them play. It’s a very close call. They’re both going to be impact players. They are supremely talented and have played on the world stage. Tavares has dominated junior. Hedman has been excellent as an 18-year old playing against men in one of the best pro leagues in the world.
Do any other prospects in this draft compare?
Tavares is clearly the best 18-year old forward in the world. Hedman is clearly the best 18-year old defenseman in the world. That’s all there is to know.
But all things being equal, seems you’re saying teams should go with the defenseman.
It’s just not that simple, kid! Okay, I’ll give you this: it’s harder most years to get that great defenseman. There are usually more forwards who can put the puck in the net. But defensemen take more time to develop. And now with the CBA, by the time they mature and have got it all figured out, they’re free agents!
Look, this is why you have a scouting staff and testing and one-on-one interviews. You have to put everything into the equation: maturity, personality, toughness, strength. If the GM and his scouts determine one of the kids has clearly got it over the other, you go with him. You don’t get caught up in defense vs. forward. Sometimes you have to go by feel. Take the player who best fits your team.
Sounds like you feel the Islanders can’t go wrong whether they win or lose the lottery tonight.
No one’s going to feel sorry for them if they get the No. 2 pick in the lottery. They’re still going to get a hell of a player. If they get the first pick, it will be a difficult decision but it’s a problem they won’t mind having. No matter what happens, they’ll get a franchise player and they will be on their way.
Comments. Guidelines. Point Blank will be on NHL Home Ice on XM Radio tonight at 6:00 pm and on News 12 Long Island immediately after the lottery winner is announced around 8:20. The segment will be replayed at 9:20 pm. We’ll join you in the discussion on the blog all night.
Turns out the Islanders are not just looking at Tavares and Hedman in the 1-2 hole. Garth Snow tells Greg Logan they’ll go through the process and look at 5 or 6 players. Scott Gordon kids about trading down two spots. Yes, I understand Snow doesn’t want to tip his hand. But do we even need to watch the lottery tonight? Comments.
First things first. If Pierre McGuire was the general manager of an NHL team with a solid forward corps but weak defense, he would select Victor Hedman with the first overall selection in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft.
If the commentator for TSN, NBC, Sports Illustrated and just about everywhere else was the GM of a team with needs all over the roster, he would take John Tavares – and not hesitate one second to do so.
“John Tavares will score a lot of goals, help you win a lot of hockey games and sell you a lot of tickets,” McGuire told Point Blank over the phone today. “If you’re a team like the Islanders with many needs and a lot on the line, you take Tavares.”
The conversation continued…
Does Matt Duchene belong in this conversation at all, Pierre?
Hmm, probably not. Just a step below Tavares and Hedman. He’s in a different group with 2 or 3 other guys. Let me be clear: I love Matt Duchene. He just missed out on Team Canada at the World Junior Championships and my heart broke for the kid. I thought he could have made it over Angelo Esposito, but Angelo had a great tourney so you can’t criticize that move.
Duchene’s going to be a great player. He’s also an outstanding person. He has definitely moved up the ranks this season where I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes 3, and the team that gets him is going to have a wonderful hockey player leading their franchise for a long time.
I’ve heard scouts have been all over his playoffs for Brampton.
For good reason. He’s having a tremendous postseason. He’s playing with Cody Hodgson and Evgeny Gratchev. They are something to watch. You want to see how Duchene excels in pressure situations. With each game, Matt’s stock is rising. He won’t go 1 or 2. He shouldn’t go 1 or 2. He’s not in the same category as Tavares and Hedman. He doesn’t have the same pedigree.
If any team gives up the right to draft Hedman, got something big in return and grabbed Duchene at 3 or 4, would you freak out like you did when the Islanders passed on Parise to draft Nilsson?
Definitely not. I would support a move like that very much – especially if the team got something great in return. I would not flip out in the TV booth. Come out of the draft with Matty Duchene and another piece to your puzzle, and you’re one of the biggest winners of the draft. By the way, was I wrong to lose it on the Parise deal?
Every time Zach takes the ice, he makes you look smart. Okay, back to John Tavares. No. 1, hands down?
Yes – unless you’re just a brutal defensive team and your forwards are okay. Did I mention John Tavares is going to sell you tickets?
Hey, I wrote a few days ago that if the Islanders win the lottery on Tuesday night, they should just claim Tavares right on the spot.
That’s why I still return your calls! You and I think a lot alike.
What’s Hedman’s upside?
Special. Real special.
Talk to me about Evander Kane.
Should be an excellent player along the boards, a tremendous offensive weapon. Everyone talks about his weight (listed anywhere between 165-180 lately). I’m not concerned about that at all. He’s a skinny kid right now but he’s going to fill out. He has a large frame. He could easily get to 205 pounds in the NHL. Kane will not lose one-on-one battles.
Sounds a bit like Kyle Okposo.
I think Kyle has even more upside offensively. Quick story. I spoke with Okposo before the WJC last year. I said to him, “You have to stop being so unselfish, Kyle”! He was always looking to include his linemates on every play. That’s admirable, but when you have talent and power like he does, sometimes you’ve got to take over the play yourself. He looked incredible in the second half for the Isles.
Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson.
For such a strong, big person, he’s as good a skater as you’ll ever find. World-class speed. My only question is whether he’ll be a pure finisher at the NHL level. I’ve said that if you took this kid’s wheels and gave him Brendan Shanahan’s hands, you’d have one of the most exciting players in the history of the game.
From our conversation so far, my take is you have Tavares and Hedman in one group and Duchene and Kane at the next level in a group of their own.
Yeah, that’s right. Paajarvi-Svensson is real close with Duchene and Kane because even if his finish isn’t the best, he’ll still be an outstanding playmaker.
Jared Cowen.
Probably the second-best defenseman in the draft. If a team gets him anywhere after the 7th pick, they’ll have one of the steals of the draft. A very, very good defenseman. Time will tell about his lateral mobility, but I wouldn’t be too concerned. Cowen is so good, missing the second half of the season has not really hurt his draft status.
But you don’t have Cowan with Duchene, Kane and P-S.
No. He’s in the next grouping.
Okay, so beyond all the kids I’ve mentioned, who’s the one prospect you love that no one includes in the top 6 or 7?
Ryan Ellis, the defenseman from Windsor – Josh Bailey’s old teammate. Brian Rafalski with more offense. People say he’ll go between 12-20. He’s going to fall to someone because he’s not huge, but he’s exceptional. If I’m a team wants to make a big move to get younger, I could see a team like Detroit making a play for him. Any team would be wise to. He’s the real deal.
TSN vs. POINT BLANK TOP 10
Originally posted two months ago tonight, our top 10 rankings remain the same. Here’s how it cross-checked with TSN’s on Feb. 13. Please note, this is not Pierre McGuire’s list.
TSN Point Blank
1. John Tavares 1. Tavares
2. Victor Hedman 2. Hedman
3. Matt Duchene 3. Duchene
4. Evander Kane 4. Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi
5. Brayden Schenn 5. Kane
6. Jared Cowen 6. Schenn
7. Svensson-Paajarvi 7. Cowen
8. Nazem Kadri 8. Jordan Schroeder (TSN ranks 12)
9. Scott Glennie (PB ranks 14) 9. Kadri
10. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (PB 12) 10. Ryan Ellis (TSN 13)
Comments.
The odds favor the Islanders obtaining the No. 2 pick and not the No. 1 selection in the NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday night. And if the Islanders’ 52% comes in and they are awarded the second pick, history suggests anything could happen.
“History,” of course, being June of 2008.
That’s when the Islanders made the stunning, bold and controversial decision to pass on Nikita Filatov, Luke Schenn and Mikkel Boedker, move from pick 5 to 7 to 9, draft Josh Bailey and add several picks (including Aaron Ness) to their haul. A year later, the debate over the decision’s merits rages on with strong cases for both sides.
A year later, the 5-7-9 serves as a cautionary tale if the Islanders end up in the 2-hole and John Tavares is taken by another team with the first pick. There’s little reason to automatically assume the Islanders will draft Victor Hedman, by most accounts the No. 2 player available in this year’s draft.
And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.
To be certain, our love for Hedman’s game in unrequited. Should the Islanders – heaven forbid! – just take whomever’s left at 2 between Tavares and Hedman, it would be a very good day in the Country. That said, expect the Islanders to listen to offers for the right to take Hedman at 2.
Here’s the possible formula. The Islanders give up the chance to take Hedman, but still come away with the No. 2 defense prospect (Jared Cowan, in a landslide) or No. 2 skilled forward prospect (Matt Duchene, Evander Kane and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson in a tight battle). Plus they receive a boatload of picks – possibly even someone’s first-rounder in 2010.
Could happen, especially when you consider the Islanders have done this before…just a year ago.
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What would I do at No. 2? Take what’s left between Tavares and Hedman at 2, then finalize a deal that packages the Islanders’ late first-round pick (from San Jose) and one of their early second-round picks (their own or Toronto’s) and get to the middle of the first round.
If the Islanders are fortunate to tab Tavares, grab the best available defenseman with a pick in the 15-20 range. If the Islanders have Hedman land in their laps, take the best available forward with the mid first rounder.
The Islanders must significantly upgrade their skill level and have plenty of holes to fill at forward, defense and goal. I would play it conservatively and take Hedman, just as I would have taken Luke Schenn last year and called it a night. The Islanders need some great players, not just a bunch of good ones.
However, if the Islanders’ scouts really believe in the greatness of Duchene or Kane, Paajarvi-Svensson and Cowan, it couldn’t hurt to show some patience. Garth Snow would be wise to at least listen to offers for the No. 2 pick until the very last second.
In case you missed it, here’s my take on what should happen if the NYI win the Draft Lottery, aka “I (Heart) Tavares.” Comments. Guidelines. Especially for the next 48 hours, let’s be respectful and let every reader have a chance to share their opinion. Thanks.
Let’s warm up for Tuesday night’s NHL Draft Lottery with a package of material, courtesy of our friends at the league office. First off is the NHL’s release with details on the broadcast and the percentages.
Following is a bio on John Tavares, our selection as the top player available in the draft and the young man the Islanders should jump on if they get the first pick. Prior to the lottery, we will post league-produced profiles on some of the other top young players available.
As most of you know, despite what it says below, the Islanders in reality have a 48% chance of winning the lottery, a 52% chance of getting Hedman Duchene Kane the second pick. Only teams 1-5 can win the first overall pick.
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The National Hockey League Draft Drawing, a weighted system to determine the order of selection for the
first 14 picks of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, will take place Tuesday, April 14, at 8 p.m. ET at the NHL’s New York City office.
The League will unveil the results of the Draft Drawing live during a 30-minute program produced and televised by TSN in Canada and simulcast on VERSUS in the U.S. The show also will be streamed live on NHL.com and TSN.ca. NHL Network will re-broadcast the Draft Drawing in the U.S. only at 9 p.m., ET.
Clubs that did not qualify for this season’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, or clubs that acquired the first-round picks of those non-playoff clubs, will participate. Under the weighted lottery system, the club with the fewest regular-season points will have the greatest chance (25%) of winning the Draft Drawing and will pick no lower than second at the 2009 Entry Draft.
The club selected in the Draft Drawing may not move up more than four positions in the draft order; the only clubs with the opportunity to receive the first overall selection are the five with the lowest regular-season point totals, or those that acquired an eligible club’s first-round draft picks. No club can move down more than one position as a result of the Draft Drawing.
The percentage chance of a team being selected in the Draft Drawing:
Islanders 25.0%
Tampa Bay 18.8%
Colorado 14.2%
Atlanta 10.7%
Los Angeles 8.1%
Phoenix 6.2%
Toronto 4.7%
Dallas 3.6%
Ottawa 2.7%
Edmonton 2.1%
Nashville 1.5%
Minnesota 1.1%
Buffalo 0.8%
Florida 0.5%
The 2009 NHL Entry Draft will take place at Bell Centre in Montreal on Friday, June 26 (round one) and Saturday, June 27 (rounds 2-7).
JOHN TAVARES BIO
London Knights • OHL
6’0” 195 lbs. Center, shoots left
Born: Sept. 20, 1990 in Mississauga, ON
Mid-Term Ranking: 1
North American Skater
QUICK FACTS
• Through the first nine games of the 2009 OHL playoffs, Tavares has 14 points (6-8-14) as his London Knights faced the Saginaw Spirit in the second round.
• In his fourth season in the OHL, Tavares led the league in goals with 58 in 56 games (58-46-104) in 2008-09, including 50 points (32-18-50) in 24 games after being traded to the London Knights. He set a new OHL goal-scoring record, surpassing Peter Lee’s 33-year-old record with his 214th goal on Mar. 8, 2009, finishing with a total of 215 career goals (215-218-433) in 247 games.
• On the world stage, he won back-to-back gold medals with Team Canada at the 2008 and 2009 World Junior Championships. With a more prominent role in 2009, he scored eight goals (8-7-15) to bring his World Junior goal total to 12 (12-8-20) – tying Eric Lindros and Jeff Carter for most goals in a career by a Canadian at the World Junior Championships.
• He was named the 2007 CHL Player of the Year after breaking the OHL record for goals in a season by a 16-year-old with 72 (previously held by Wayne Gretzky). He made his OHL debut the season prior as a 15-year-old, after receiving ‘exceptional player’ status and was tabbed the CHL Rookie of the Year in 2006.
HE SAID IT
On his will to win: “I think that’s part of learning the game early, and having a passion for the game. I remember every day playing hockey and coming home from school and going shooting pucks in my basement, just excited for practice. I just had so much fun. I tried to do my best each and every day and wanted to excel and wanted to be the best at every level and everywhere I played. I think that’s what drove me and still drives me today.”
On his first thought after winning gold at the 2008 World Juniors: “I’m a world champion. I think, not too many people can say that. There’s no greater honor than winning gold for Canada . . . the feeling of overcoming all that adversity, all that hard work we’ve put into our lives, and now I’ll say I’m a world champion, that was amazing.”
SCOUTING REPORT
Director of Central Scouting E.J. McGuire
“He is probably better than any other player in the Draft from the top of the circle down at being a threat to score. He’s an offensive player who is reliable in his defensive zone and getting better at that, but yet not asked to do that very frequently. He is pure offense and for his first years in the NHL will probably be asked to do just that.”
STATISTICS
2005-06 Oshawa OHL 65 45 32 77 72
2006-07 Oshawa OHL 67 72 62 134 60
2007-08 Oshawa OHL 59 40 78 118 69
2008-09 Oshawa OHL 32 26 28 54 32
2008-09 London OHL 24 32 18 50 22
Comments. Next Up: What could happen if the Islanders get the 2nd pick.
12:40 am - Greg Logan writes that “Rick DiPietro recently was seen on crutches at the physical therapy center where the Islanders do their rehabilitation.” Over the last few days the PB inbox has received three emails from readers reporting various sightings of the goalie on crutches, but I could not verify.
DiPietro was not part of the post-game Jersey presentation with fans tonight, while some injured players were. He has not been seen around the team at their practices in recent weeks. On March 25 the team released a statement saying “Rick is progressing well and is on schedule to report to training camp.” Scott Gordon told me tonight after the game (and before Greg’s report), “Rick fully expects to be on the ice sometime in mid-summer and ready to go.” The team had no comment for Logan tonight and has not announced that DiPietro has had any surgery. Comments.
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