NYI DRAFT 411: THE COST OF MOVING UP
An expert on the price to trade up from 26
Islanders Point Blank on Twitter
First in a series, I think, on some of the mechanics of draft weekend
There has been a lot of discussion about the Islanders movin’ on up in this draft, but little talk about the true cost to do so. The NFL actually has a “rate card” teams use as a model on draft day, but the NHL does not. To get a better feel for the process, we contacted a league source who has both run a draft table and been in the trenches as a scout for more than two decades. “Keyser” provided us with his first round price estimates based on his personal experience and on recent draft history.
So you have it handy for our discussion, here are the Islanders’ current draft selections on June 26 and 27:
Round Selections
First 1 and 26
2nd 31, 37 and 56
3rd 62 and 91
4th 92
5th 121
6th 151
7th 181
PB: For the Islanders to move up from the 26th overall pick to the 21st, what is the estimated cost?
Keyser: I would say to trade places with teams from 26 to anywhere in the 20-24 range, it will cost them a late second-round pick if they have one.
PB: The Islanders have the first pick in the third round at 61st overall and have a late-second rounder at 56.
Keyser: That could be negotiable, but with such little time during the draft, if they really want the player they’ll probably have to cough up the 56. I would recommend Garth Snow having conditional deals in place if not Friday night, then after he makes the first overall pick and welcomes the kid and his family.
PB: What if the Islanders look to move from 26 to the 18-20 range?
Keyser: Then you’re definitely looking at trading the late second (56). You probably still don’t have to touch the two early second round picks (31 and 37). But besides the late second, the other team might ask for a sweetener - like a 4th or 5th round pick.
PB: The 56th overall pick and a 5th sounds reasonable.
Keyser: Yeah, it does. But if you look desperate enough, the other GM could try to hold you up. I think you’d have to give up the 4th.
PB: Maybe it’s better for GMs to use the phone than to walk over to visit the trade partner at his table.
Keyser: (laughs) Yup, sometimes it is. To be honest, though, I have to say most GMs act like gentlemen on the draft floor. They know they might be in your position not even next summer but even in the same draft. It’s usually not very cutthroat when it comes to moving picks. The Islanders moved back well last draft, although the seeds for those deals to go from 5 to 9 were probably planted ahead of time.
PB: What’s the cost to flip with a team from 26 to 14-17?
Keyser: Now you’re talking about a much bigger leap. You don’t often see that in terms of just swapping picks. The Islanders would have to pay a price. To go to 15 all the way from 26? You’re looking at one of the early second rounders plus the late second. Or the other team could ask for a top prospect, which is why a big deal like this needs to be planned in advance and just finalized on the floor on Friday night. The price could be very steep, but it’s worth it if your scouts are salivating over someone who could be in the top 5-10 overall on their draft board.
PB: Any way the Islanders keep the first overall pick and also acquire the second or third overall picks?
Keyser: Anything is possible, I guess. If I’m Tampa Bay, I’m setting my minimum price at Josh Bailey, the 26th pick and the Islanders’ first round pick in 2010. And I don’t think that’s even enough to get a deal done because of the uncertainty of where the 2010 first pick could be. If the Islanders have a decent season and that pick next summer is, say, 8 or higher, the other team has made a bad deal. The Islanders would get the best player in the trade, easily. Tough to see a deal like that coming together.
*
Point Blank Analysis: Too cost-prohibitive for the Islanders to move below 18. Although the Islanders are aiming high for talent, it would be surprising to see a team that horded draft selections in 2006 and 2008 give up one of their early second rounders and more.
Look for the team to make a switch of picks closer to the 20-22 range, giving up the 61st overall pick. In one of the more famous (or infamous) trade-ups in recent draft history, in 2003 Lou Lamoriello took his Devils from 22 to 17. The painless price of a 68th overall pick was the difference between Zach Parise scoring 122 goals for New Jersey and Marc-Antoine Pouliot scoring 14 for Edmonton…and counting.
If the Islanders are successful in trading up, they will pick a player that Garth Snow will declare his scouts had very high on their board. The GM will say the kid is too good for the Islanders to have waited any longer and risk losing him before 26. Snow might even say his staff was certain his new prospect would be taken by one of the teams before them at 26.
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101 Responses to “NYI DRAFT 411: THE COST OF MOVING UP
An expert on the price to trade up from 26”
Please Wait
after they select JT, if they like a player that much for a 56 or 61 then why not.
#1 i agree. this draft seem deep, and last year’s draft we made plenty of picks
disheartening for those of us who also like cowen and kassian
I would be fine with trading 56 or 61. I just dont want to trade 31 or 37 just to move up a few spots. But if we can get to 20 from 26 with the 56 im all for it.
What about the possibility of moving the 26th overall, as well as the 37th overall and 61st in order to move into the 14-17 range? Those are three pretty decent picks in order to move up 9 places.
Great post. I do not think the Islanders will break the bank to move into the top 10-15. I agree that they will move up to the 18-22 range. This allows them to look like they picked quality over quantity, while maintaining a high number of picks.
I like the idea of us trading up to get kassian but I don’t think snow will trade all his picks
Isles own the 91st, not 90th pick.
I don’t care if we draft NYisles or the Philly Fanatic as long as we get Tavares im happy.
#8 yeah! Draft NYisles, even though i thought he looked like ken daneyko
thanks for the info chris. very interesting. i would still inquire about minnesota at 12 b/c they don’t have a 2nd or a 3rd. maybe something reasonable can be worked out b/c of their lack of depth. i think i would actually prefer nyi stayed at 26 though b/c it’s a very deep draft.
Absolutley great article, I really loved this one. Just one question I hope CB can answer, was this “Keyser” speaking in just relative terms or was he basing his opinions on what it would take to move up to certain picks based on the actual team that held those picks? And Justin (#5) I dont think that would be the worst idea because that leaves us with 2 1st’s, 2 2nd’s and a late 3rd but based on Snow’s last draft I cant see him dropping 3 picks. Then again I certainly wouldnt be upset if he did and we had 2 picks in the top 15 or so!
CB thank you for answering my pick as it is easy for us arm chair gms to pull off trades, its good to get an inside perspective.
Im actually in favor of trading the pick, I think we have a lot of depth quantity, and not a lot of quality depth. I have made it known that I want the Isles to be able to trade for Kassain. And here is the thing, I was reading on HockeyFuture, that the Isles tend to pick OHL more than anyone else. Tavares is OHL. So they probally have done their extracedit project on Kassain.
And two points to remember: there has been alot of Propsect A is going to be the next Player B. However Bossy would not have been Bossy w/out Clark Gillies there to ride shotgun with him.
Point B: If they do draft Kassain, they can play the Zach Attack everytime he scores a goal.
Bergie20- You just beat me to it. Minnesota does not have a very deep system. Hockey’s Future ranks them as worst in the league. Without a 2nd or 3rd I think they are likely to trade the pick. Of course if Minnesota local boy Jordan Schroeder is available they just may opt to pick him.
i would be interested in hearing how valuable it would be for the Isles to move from #1 to #3. Also how much it would cost for Toronto to move up to #3 from #7. How many picks or players could you expect in a move down or up like that. I really believe that if Toronto love’s Tavares as much as they seem to indicate, they would have a real shot at getting him if they could get that #3 pick from Col. If the Isles are really torn and love Duschenne, you would have to assume they can get him at #3, and also hold up Toronto for as much as they can get! Schenn and a pick plus #3 for Tavares? Would you do it?? Also the June 15th version of the NHL mock draft now has the Isles picking Hedman! Are we starting to see a shift in thought process back to Hedman?
Quality not quantity.
We added a lot of young players.
Roster space will soon become a concern.
If they have to give up an extra pick in this year’s draft to get a player at 15 they really want then do it.
Why settle for another player to save a later pick. One that may not be worth another roster slot.
Good luck Garth.
I meant:
CB thank you for answering my question
I really would have to think that Tampa would, and should, really want Hedman. I dont see them moving Vinny in the offseason, in which case they have plenty of offensive firepower and they are lacking at D. Now call me crazy here, but what if all this “Isles are going to pick Hedman talk” is being thrown out there so that Snow can convince Tampa that we are going to take Hedman. If they think this we can maybe trade the #1 to Tampa for the #2 pick and one of their two 2nd rounders (32, 52). Now we have 4 2nd rounders and can trade up higher (or keep them, it IS a deep draft) and still have JT. This probably isnt the case, but its my conspiracy theory of the day! I think as Islander fans weve been waiting long enough to have our cake and eat it too, and what better time than now?
dan l (and no people, we are not related lol)
if i’m tampa i tell the isles to bugger off, if we leave them hedman, they are happy (and their fans are all about him too btw)
if we leave them tavares they have vinny as a trade piece, if we leave them both, they can take their pick…
Bob, what are you talking about I’m your long lost brother? Haha joking aside, like I said I dont forsee that situation happening. But nothing wrong with a little wishful thinking!
We could always end up with the #6 pick and take Brad Dalgarno again.
Great read. eom.
Very informative….I would try Minny’s #12 like some other posters have previously mentioned. # 26, 37, 92 maybe? Thats 3 for 1. That might work for both teams. Damn, I cant wait till next Fri nite!!
NHL’s mock drafts all have us taking Tavares. we dont want schenn and duchene we want Tavares (as would Toronto in your trade proposal) there is o shift towards Hedman, in fac all the previous mocks who had Hedman are coming to their senses now and going with Tavares.
Great article Chris!
Interesting question - would you trade Tavares for Schenn and Duchense? We would get our hypothetical future top pair dman and #1 center all in one shot….
I think we should take Tavares and just move on…but is an interesting question.
Let’s just pick Tavares #1.
And if a trade that makes sense presents itself… then give Garth the freedom and carte blanche to do whatever he wants.
As long as he comes home with Tavares and one other very good prospect maybe 2 other very good prospects and a couple of other reaches or high risk high reward guys, then I don’t think any of us fans can complain.
DOC
interesting that the seeds of trades are planted before the draft actually commences. I wonder what Snow is up to the way the organization is pumping up the draft party. Maybe just maybe a blockbuster that nets us Duschene and Tavares. I can dream. Notice I didnt include Hedman, who is a big Kenny Johnsson who will go back to Sweden evertually LOL!!!
My only question is…
if you’re asking another gm to move up, isnt that gm interested/curious on what he is going to miss out on - what do the isles know that he doesn’t….
THIS IS COMING THE NHL.COM…UPDATED FROM TODAY….
The biggest storyline is who the New York Islanders will take first — London Knights center John Tavares, or giant Swedish defenseman Victor Hedman.
According to NHL.com’s draft experts, the Isles will opt for Tavares, the leading scorer in the Ontario Hockey League, most valuable player of Canada’s gold medal-winning team at the World Junior Championship, and Central Scouting’s top-rated North American skater.
They also predict Hedman, the 6-foot-6, 220-pound blueliner rated the best European-born skater by Central Scouting, will land with the Tampa Bay Lightning with the second pick.
sweet article CB. Love reading this kind of stuff from guys who actually know the inside info. If Im the islanders I have no problem moving the 26, 37, and the 56 to move up into the 17 or 18 range. I would be more hesitant to trade away the 31st being that the 31st is essentially another late 1st rounder compared to the 37th which sees the stock in prospects drop dramatically in those 6 spots IMO. I dont think we can lose either way after drafting JT but if they are dying for a guy on the board I say we dump these picks and move up.
Dan L & Bob L (18 & 19):
How’s this scenario? Suppose NYI is equally happy with JT or VH. The move is to DRAFT Hedman, who TB obviously has a “need” for. Snow then offers Hedman to TB and tries to extract as much as possible. TB gets Hedman, we get JT plus a sweetener! If TB tells Snow to shove it, we still get Hedman and can concentrate on forwards with the rest of the draft.
from your keyboard to garth’s eyes thor
Speaking of Minnesota, and their lack of a system, any chance we can maybe grab a Josh Harding from them for a second rounder, and something else? With Backstrom in net, they don’t have a real use for Harding, and then they can start to replenish their system while we get a potential number one guy if DiPietro is not ready/done.
To NYI: Minnesotas 1st Rd Pick (12th Overall)
To MIN: SJ’s 1st Rd Pick (26th Overall), TOR’s 2nd Rd Pick (37th Overall), BOS 2nd’s Rd Pick (56th Overall), and maybe a later round pick?
I know that we are giving up four picks, but we are going to be getting a quality player with the number 12 spot, and we will still have the 31st overall pick and the 61st overall pick. We would essentially have three first round picks, considering many first rounders drop into the second round, and this is a quality draft rather than a quantity draft. In this situation, we’d be able to draft Tavares, possibly Kassian, and maybe a solid defensemen at 31st overall.
I believe that teams like Anaheim and Florida might trade down since they each have only 4 or 5 picks for the draft. A three-for-one deal of picks 26, 37, and 91 would be enough for the Islanders to move into the 15-16 range.
If the Islanders do make the trade up to the top 20-25, I have to believe they’re interested in three players: Calvin De Haan, Tim Erixon, or Chris Kreider. Any three would certainly improve the “quality” of prospects, and who knows, the 31st pick might end up being a pleasant surprise if anyone unexpectedly drops.
hishutzi skorz,
1- great name, 2, i think getting your cake and eating it too, at the risk of alienating the guy your will have on your team (which would happen in both scenarios) is a very risky move…
show whomever you want that he’s THE MAN by taking him #1 overall and that’s that.
just my opinion but ego’s come into play in these proceedings
something to keep in mind…most teams’ draft classes only produce 2-3 NHL players, no matter where the selections are or how many selections they have…in addition, most teams come away from the draft with an all-star, impact player only a few times period, no matter where their selections are…drafts like the Oilers in 1979 (Messier, Lowe and Anderson) and Islanders in 1974 (Gillies, Trottier) where you get 2 or more major impact HOF all-stars are the stuff dynasties and legends are built on, maybe once in a franchise’s history…more recently, Pens drafting at the top over multiple years is remarkable and will be tough to duplicate
my point is, hopefully Isles take Tavares and he becomes what most people think he will become…other than that, one other major impact player, any position, is about the best you can expect
To Dan L
I am against your proposed swap w/ tampa bay for the following reasons:
1. If we truly want Tavares, and Tavares wants to be #1 lets give him the respect and honor of the pick. A few yrs ago, Florida was in the same spot, traded down to #3, still the man wanted in JayBo. However Jaybo was left w/ a bad taste in his mouth and felt disrespected.
2. Toronto. If TB has a deal worked out for with us, and they give us their #2 pick, what would Toronto be willing to give them. As I am sure TB would be just as happy to add Cowen to their d-corps as they would vh, and then they could get a kings ransom from Burke.
Great read CB! I wish you would have asked him what it would take for Colorado or TB to trade up to #1. Anyway, as I have said before, I’d just keep all the picks and take the best players available.
Stay put unless some team is blockheaded and takes the Nilsson kid. By then you get frantic and do what it takes to draft tha Parise kid. (in other words, do what the smart (winning) teams do and don’t look back)
I would do the trade Justin posted.
I don’t want to give up a draft pick to move up a few spots.
If we are going to do it… then let’s try to get into the 10-15 range.
I want one of the following players…
SCHROEDER
KADRI
KASSIAN
If they are not there, then hold off and keep the picks. There is lots of potential draft picks at 26, 31, 37.
My feeling with the Draft has always been that five middling players aren’t worth one star player. And if you can get that kind of player at 15, for example, you trade whatever 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks you have to get them. In all honesty, free agency, even for the Isles, can net all the Trent Hunters you can handle. To get that star player, I’d do whatever I can do it, especially for a team like ours that lacks it so very much.
I’m not saying trade the entire remainder of the Draft for a guy at #15, but if it takes 3-4 mid-level picks, just do it. We’ve stockpiled for a reason - to have that chance to bunch or own picks together for someone special, to have the “chips” to succeed in this medium. For once in the last however many years, WE hold the cards. Lets at least show them and see what we can do.
Stumpy32…I agree!!
Grab Tavares @ 1!
#13 Mike Bossy was a pure natural goal scorer. No disrepect to Clark Gillies but to say Mike Bossy wouldn’t have scored those goals without Gillies is grazy. Yes Clark did protect Mike Bossy. It’s the other way around without Bossy and Trottier no Gillies. Again i’m huge fan of Gillies but he did not make Bossy the player he was maybe contributed.
Justin #34- I like the idea of giving up the 4 for the 12th pick, but I have a hard time reasoning 4 draft picks for Zach Kassian. I’m not a big fan of Kassian and I know the team needs size but if its size Garth wants then I’d rather he not trade up that high and draft Chris Kreider. If we get the 12 I hope its for either Ellis, Schroeder, or Kadri
CB, great post–always fascinating to see the inner workings behind the draft day mechanics. So that means that Mad Mike had a plan–and could have actually laid groundwork?!–for some of his crazy draft day maneuvers, eh? I always pictured him more of a riffer, like a draft day Coltrane, but I guess that’s pretty unrealistic.
BTW, as compared to Parise’s goal total, you forgot to add in the sizable total of the 68th pick to Pouliot’s 14: Jean-Francois Jacques has had a whopping ONE goal in 60 NHL games!
You just cannot get coverage like this anywhere else.
I think there has to be a player worthy of moving up for to start with.
Having watched the playoffs and seen how rough they were and that fighting was at a recent high all the way to the end and seeing what a bunch of softies the Islanders all it becomes critical to grab a guy like Zach Kassian. So when the draft concludes Friday night all my friends at the post draft brewfest need to be exclaiming how great it is the Isles landed Tavares and Kassian!
I would also give up the 26, 31, 37, 56 pick to get into the top ten if I had a chance to get Magnus or Kane.
If your going to move up then just do it… no fooling around moving up a measly 3 or 4 spots…lol.
I’d prefer they trade players then picks to move up. Hunter, Martinek, Witt, Geravis, Jackman, Meyer etc. On the prospects the Isles have a ton of wingers that they will never be able to use all of them if they pan out and maybe this would be a good opportunity to shed some of the small puck moving d-men in our system.
Good job targeting Minn, that looks like exactly the type of team who’d want to move back and 12 would be an ideal spot for the Isles to move up to. This is getting so fun.
Mike L at # 46, Chris Kreider is the guy I want as well….
As far as moving up… if the Islanders have their eye on a guy, and the difference between moving to 18-20 range, or the 20-25 range is our fourth round pick (both would include the late second rounder), you better believe the Isles will include the fourth rounder and get their guy!!
If they are that high on a kid, you don’t risk losing him over a fourth rounder..
What are we looking for with that second first round pick?? size, speed, intelligence, hockey sense, skills?? Well all the prospects we are looking at for our second first rounder seem to have some of these attributes, but lack some as well, but Kreider skates like the wind, is considered a power forward at 6′2 200 lbs, considered a good intelligent kid, and great skills and hockey sense… The knock on him is he didnt play in a better league (played high school in Mass), well at least he dominated the level he was at.. He can’t help if he is head and shoulders above the competition… I’ll gladly have Kreider over Kassian or Ashton.
If the Isles move up, my wish list is:
1. Jordan Schroeder (more like a dream then reality, probably waay too costly)
2. Chris Kreider
3. Oliver Ekman-Larson (again prob too costly)
4. Louis Leblanc
5. David Runblad
Guys I like at 31 or 37 in no particular order:
Ryan O’Reily
Carl Klingsberg
Dylan Olsen
Calvin Dehaan
Zach Budish
I agree, quality over quantity but to be honest with you, after the top 10 picks it really a guessing game. No guarantee someone will be better at 17 over 26.
in fact i would argue with the 7 remaining picks after taken John Tavares #1. if even 1 if not 2 of those becomes and NHL stud, Then We did a great job.
Take last year for example. we did not get the #1. so we were left at 5. In my opinion 5 was no different then 9 in draft. Isles got Bailey instead of Filatov or Schenn.
If either Petrov, Ness, DiBo, Trivino or any of other picks we got materialize its a huge homerun.
While there is no guarantees, I think having more picks in 2nd and 3rd is more important than trading them away to get a late 15-17th pick in 1st round.
check past drafts for yourself and then you tell me otherwise.
#13 and #45. i agree with #45. in fact, Gillies wasn’t even always on Bossy-Trottier line!! Bob Bourne was there for a while as well. Bossy scored not because of Gillies at all!
if we do trade up, i would like it to be for a top DMAn like Kulikov, Cowan or Moore
Keep the picks - is it really worth it to trade 3 picks for the 17th pick - this team needs so much. And whoever they take will not even play in the NHL this year.
Excellent posting Chris. Would love to see similar postings (interviews with insiders) between now and draft day. Thanks.
It is totally worth it to trade our excess picks for quality which this team desperatly needs. You can only sign so many players… and we have pleanty of grinders and prospects with upside. After we Draft Jr I say trade the pick to Columbus and get Larson.
Yes, this is a very deep draft. I have a feeling that in a normal year, a kid like Seth Helgeson (look him up) would probably go early 2nd, maybe early 1st. This year he is projected to go anywhere between mid 2nd to early third depending on which rankings you look at. In the ‘11 draft (which is projected to be horrible), he would most likely be a first rounder. The kid looks good and is definitely the type of blueliner isles need.
Off topic a bit, I realize…but per the Isles web site - now nearing 15,000 tix sold for the Draft Party. Holy cow.
Chad at #59… I like Helgeson, but from everything I’ve read, he seems one-dimesional (not that we don’t need that one-dimension… He is a physical force on the blue-line… He is in the same class as a Matt Clark.. I don’t think either of them are over or under-rated… They are what they are, bangers. But here is a guy with size on the blue-line that may have more offensive bite and skating ability then Helgenson or Clark, Brian Dumoulin! Look him up..
I like Dumoulin because he seems to offer more than a defensive presence and hitting ability…
But we do need size on the blue line, and two more options are Taylor Doherty and Brayden McNabb.
What I wish was askd was How high can we go if we give up our 26th, 37th, 56th, 92? We can trade those 4 High Value picks and still end up keeping #1, #31, #62, $91(that’s the 1st pick of each of the first 4 rds)..With that could we get into the Top 11?(Tavares, Hedman, Duchene, Kane, Svensson, Schenn, Kulikov, Schroeder, Cowen)….If one of those 9 players are available we should give up those 4 picks w/out thinking twice…Also I would give a Sweetener like Nielson and Katic if I have to..I love Nielson theres no room for another small, finesse Center on this team..Forget getting #2 or #3 overall, that’s basically impossible…But if one of those 9 players were available we should move up..The 2 players I love at #18 or #20 (Chris Kreider & Dylan Olsen) & one of them might fall to #26 anyway. ..If it would only cost two 2nd rd’ers to go to #15. I bet we can get to #11 w/ those 5 assets…There is a chance that any of 8 Players could upset that Top 9(Kassian, Ellis, Kadri, Rundblad, Moore, Glennie, Ashton & Josefson)..Get one of the Top 9 Players or stick at 26!!!
One guy I DON’T want at #26 or #31… Tim Erixon…. Limited offensive ability is not a phrase I want to hear when discussing first rounders/early second rounders of a deep draft… If we are going to take a stay at home defenseman that high, he better have great size and Erixon is of average stature.
My wish? Don’t change a thing by moving picks. Why mess around with the later picks when you already have the #1 pick. Moving the 26 and 2nd round picks is like betting against the house in Vegas. Work with what you got, don’t give up too much, trust your picks then work to develop these players.
no chance there are 15,000 tickets sold. or maybe there is, but i gurantee only 5,000 to 8,000 go. the mets play the yankees that night as well.
My dream mock:
#1: Tavares
#26: Chris Kreider (Louis Leblanc or Dylan Olsen)
#31: Dylan Olsen (Carl Kligsberg or Calvin Dehaan)
#37: Carl Klingsberg (Ryan O’Reily)
#56: Alex Chiasson (Robin Lehner, Eric Gelinas, Ryan Bourque)
#62: Robin Lehner (Eric Gelinas, Ryan Bourque or Brian Dumoulin)
#90: Brian Dumoulin (Ryan Bourque, Seth Helgeson
#92: any of the above that slip…
comments??
(65) Yeah, because the “Subway Series” means just SOOOOOO much. lol
I’m a die hard Yanks fan but I could give a fly frig about that game. Yanks-Sox? Different story…..
There will be about 12,000 actual fans at the Draft Party. I will be there with 3 friends.
Here’s the chant,
DRAFT TA-VA-RES!!!!!!
One thing I want to know: will Versus/TSN have a camera focused on the Coliseum floor to show the reaction of the fans? I hope so, because whether it’s one of jubiliation, or one of shock, it oughta make a hell of a picture! But more importantly, if they see us going bananas after a Tavares pick, it ought to quiet this whole idea of there being no passionate fan base on Long Island.
It might be time to use some of those picks and the fact that they are below teh CAP floor to try to acquire some solid NHL players from teams with CAP issues.
I bet they could get either Drury or Gomez for that late second rounder… and it would be for less than Snow originally offered both of them.
Gagne should be on the market, a low second round draft pick and Gervais or Hiller.
I just hope he doesn’t trade two darts for one unless that ONE is a great value. ie top 12 on the draft board, still around at 20. Otherwise, they should throw all the darts they can.
i think what the isles would give up will depend on wether someone they had ranked in their top ten slides down to 15 or beyond. if its someone they believe in, they will pay the price. i just dont see them having something set up the night before based un this uncertainty. im fine with taking 8 of the top 91 players, but if the like someone enough to jump up, thats ok too… im starting to think it’ll be hedman and a whole mess of forwards….
…my dream mock… with the first TWO selections of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft…
instead of picks to move up, how about including current players/prospects. aren’t we at the limit for contracts allowed.
Here’s an idea if Toronts’s GM is so determined to have Tavares let Snow tell them, get us Hedman and Duchene and you work out the details. It would involve multiple clubs, piks and trades but in the end we would be winners.
To reply to Robert and Chad, I love McNabb the most, than Dumoulin, than Helgeson than Clark but a close call..Also check out Alexander Urbom and a good Sleeper is Nate Schmidt-only 6′0 but Hits like a Monster!….Here are the 5 Top Draft Preview Rankings for these 6 D-Men……..McNabb McKeens-60, RedLine Report-66, The Hockey News- 54, Int’l Scouting Services-, 43, Future Considerations-47…
Dumoulin-McKeens -61, RedLine Report- 62,The Hockey News- 81, Int’l Scouting Services- 67,Future Considerations- 80……
Urbom-McKeens- 70, RedLine Report- 105, The Hockey News- Not Rated, Int’l Scouting Services-130,Future Consideration-142……..
Clark-McKeens-87, RedLine Report-74,The Hockey News- Not Rated, Int’l Scouting Services- 90, Future Consideration- 126……..…
Helgeson..McKeens-95, RedLine Report- 116, The Hockey News- 58,Int’l Scouting Services- 72 .Future Considerations-78…..
Nate Schmidt RedLine Report-71
#42 many mock drafts lately have kadri dropping to the late teens
#46 based off mock drafts ive seen recently you wont need to trade up to far to get Kadri. With the other two I would be delighted to have either one.
#65 i read on Islander Mania from a customer service employee that the number of tickets stated on those things on the site is the amount given away. Not fabricated or inflated. Doesn’t mean there will be that many present on draft day but I wouldnt doubt see 8-10,000. If not a little more.
I would have also loved to hear what the Isles could have reasonably expected to recieve from Tampa or Col for moving down. I agree with the notion of moving up if you’ve got someone specific in mind but disagree with the notion that late first, second, or even early third round picks automatically mean middle of the road players. THere are plenty of examples of great players coming from those rounds or later.
Remember these are pretty young kids and there are no sure things anywhere in the first few rounds. I think you try to have the best batting average you can but you still need to see alot of pitches to get your hits. It may well be that the Isles draft at 26,31,37,56, and 61 and that one or two of those guys turn out to be real keys to the teams success but no clear sense of which one it is or will be for a couple of years.
brian (65): “only” 5,000 to 8,000 people? That would be an amazing amount of people for a draft party, the most Ive ever seen or heard of at something like that!
Now we’re talking! Good interview CB.
“PB: Any way the Islanders keep the first overall pick and also acquire the second or third overall picks?
“Keyser: Anything is possible, I guess. If I’m Tampa Bay, I’m setting my minimum price at Josh Bailey, the 26th pick and the Islanders’ first round pick in 2010.”
I am very interested in this analysis. I would try to push any of our defensemen with the exception of Streit. Tampa needs defense, has Lacav and Stamps down the middle - pitch a player where they need it most.
If we were that high on JT and Hedman and believe that both are legit franchise players then pull the trigger and get them. I don’t think this is too steep aprice for a blue-chip player.
Very interesting to see/know if Snow explores this option.
Pick JT with the 1st overall pick to make the Islander fans happy and pick Hedman to make Goring and Potvin happy along with the 12% of fans that want Hedman instewad of JT.
Now we are all happy and who’s gonna complain about next years #1 pick now?
Interesting analysis by Scott Cullen on TSN where he rates the value of each draft pick is worth over the past ten drafts. It is interesting that only 54% of players chosen 11 - 15 play at least 100 games in the NHL and that approx. 67% of picks 16 - 25 meet the same milestone. Does that indicate the Isles are better off moving down to the 20 range, but not giving up too much to go any lower? Of course 26 - 30 where the Islander currently sit drops all the way to 44% and it goes downhill from there.
I just don’t see the Isles moving off #1. It would have to be a huge deal, where someone just blows them away, a la the Flyers with Eric Lindros. Then, I’d say that we’d have to live with the disappointment…
But man, moving up to the top three as well? That would be really tough. Keyser’s minimum price probably wouldn’t fetch the #2, considering that they’re deep down the center; and even if it did, that could blow up in either team’s face. It’s hard to picture that going through.
Big fan of Josh Harding here, btw, and if Garth Snow did deal with Minny, it would be well worth it to deal one or two of the second-rounders if he was the return.
Chris TMC - Exactly. I’ve been to team draft parties in Ottawa and Edmonton (i.e. big Canadian hockey markets) that were held in bars, with perhaps ~250 in attendance. Hell, +2000 for a draft party for what an Ottawa Citizen writer this weekend called “the gulag known as the New York Islanders” would be outstanding. I don’t think we’ll have to worry about attendance.
Take Tavares bottom line. After that it is worth to move tio the top 14-17 again with the 26th, an early and late second. History proves that anything after the top 15 or so that teams are just throwing darts. Landing Tavares and Kassian would send Isles country into a frenzy. Follow that up with a big d-man with the other early second pick and Wow!
to trade away 26 37 and 61 to move up to 15 sounds fair as long as the player we are getting is moore or kassasian.
You know what I would actually prefer. Take Tavares #1 and then trade 26 for a young player up to age 25. Such as Lombardi on Phoenix, someone like him. That would guarantee a NHL player.
#83 did you sign up?
bob l before your dream mock comes true, you will probably hear soemthing like, we have a trade to announce. the New York islanders trade josh bailey, the 26th overall pick, and there first round pick in 2010 for to the tampa Bay lightning for the second overall pick
I’m against trading Bailey.
Tampa would probably ALSO want us to take salary on too because they are in a massive mess with $$$$ and it just wouldnt be worth it. Heres what my dream would be:
-Move to 3rd and get more assest
-Draft Hedman
-While moving down and using other assets, get the 5th pick and draft Schenn
-Use our other assets and extrad picks to move that 26th to around 15 and get Glennie
Thus we come out with:
Hedman, B. Schenn, Glennie
We get the best defence by far and more offence and skill from the combo of Schenn/Glennie then we could get from Tavares or Duchene.
Imagine a first line of:
Glennie Bailey Schenn
We could call it the deadly but still underage line lol. That would be sick, and when you look at what tehy did in Brandon I cant imagine what they could do with Bailey
If all it take is bailey the 26ht overall and the first overall next year to have taveras and hedman im smashing that DEAL button faster then anything. plain and simple its a no brainer , if 14,000 people hear anyone elses name but taveras go number 1 there better be 14,000 security guards on duty to help keep the buliding from falling down.
I agree with Sean, no brainer. 10 days and counting! Its worse than waiting for Christmas as a kid……..
Guys im just saying its 3 first round picks for a guy we have never seen play in the NHL
CB of coarse you now have to go the other way and send the Tavares faithfull into a panic and tell us what it would take for the Isles to move out of #1.
Good job BTW.
Nice read CB. “keyser” - a “The USual Suspects ” reference? One of my favorite movies ever bar none. With regards to the draft I’m hoping for a move up but I’m realistic that it’ll only be a few slots. I hope this discussion tempered the expectations of some fans who are expecting Snow to move up to 10 by giving up 26, 31 and a spare part.
This would be a no brainer pick if snow would have picken schenn last year , taveras , okposo and schenn. But isnted he was ither thinking about this years draft or was in love with somthing about bailey. The only way i pick hedman is if i think okposo is going to be an iginla ( please god) in my mind its the only way….then combine the 26th and the 2nd rounder to get into the teens and take your dman
CB … These are the orignal and unique threads I enjoy the most… Love how he gave us a basic breakdown of the mechanics of the value of picks during the draft.
I just wonder how GM’s / Chief Scouts equate in prospect value as to what they are willing to give up in trade to move up in order to grab a play they have ranked higher on their board.
I’d love to see the “bench mark” values of the ranked players to formulate a comprehensive list of trade partners … surely a team like the Wild may value multiple picks in late 1st (26) and early 2nd (37) with either a prospect or 5th rounder higher than their 12th… perhaps?
I am againt trading next year;s first round pick, it would just hurt the rebuilding process. I know we all want both Tavares and Hedman when it comes down to it. I only want John Tavares and then want Garth to do the following. Trade # 26, 37, and Trivino (he becomes expendable after drafting Tavares) to a team picking 12, 13, 15, 16, 18, teams in those spots do not have second round picks, # 12 Minnesota does not have a third round either. Try the best to get # 12, and then pull off something like last year, trade # 12 to Florida for their # 14 (move down 2 spots) and their second rounder (#44). This way you did not lose picks. I do not think this was sugested, move up, then down 2, and gain a second rounder, a combination of moving up and getting a pick back like last year. Before this analysis we had 1, 26, 31, 37, after we would have 1, 14, 31, 44. Keeping 31 gives us second round power. People on these sites talk about trading first rounder in 2010, how about in the deal to move up throw in a second or third rounder in 2010 to sweeten it. There are also teams out there who have to cut salary for cap issues. Maybe we can part with a Tambellini or Comeau to get a young scorer on the wing to a team who cannot keep players for cap issues. I say make a trade like that come July, draft Tavares, sign Komisarek (Boumweester not coming here), and solve your goaltending situation.
I’d love to get a peak as to where the Islander staff placing stars next to the prospects.
Can we get real good prospects in the second round???? Do they have more of an upside versus some of the players in our farm system now? If so, work on getting as many round two picks through trades. We have enough players on the Island and in Bridgeport to warrant a package for picks.
Very interesting read, CB. I would happily give up the 26th, 37th, and either the 56th or 61st in order to move up to the 14 -17 range if Kassian is still there (probably not, but maybe),or Cowan (highly unlikely). Would do it in a heartbeat.
No way the Isles should trade the 2010 first rounder. THey are likely to be in the lottery again next year and Taylor Hall is supposed to be every bit as good as the top three from this year. The Penguins didn’t dramatically improve as soon as they got Crosbie, it took time and the addtions of Malkin, Stall and Fleury. The Isles will still be rebuilding next year and likely the year after. As fans we are going to have to be patient and realize that this will take time.
rb at #38 rightfully pointed out that most drafts only produce 2 or 3 legitimate nhl players. Of course the Isles should be able to do a bit better than that this year because the draft is apparently a deep one and because they have so many picks in the first few rounds. Still I would think getting a couple top 4 defenceman and 2 top 6 forwards would be a pretty good draft class. The thing that seems to seperate good teams from the rest is strong secondary scoring and a second and third line that are tough to match up against. I still think holding onto those picks is the best strategy.
I’d give up Bailey, the 26th pick, and next year’s first rounder to be able to take Tavares 1st and Hedman 2nd in a blink if that’s all it would cost.
#71, it would be just our luck that we do get the first two picks of the draft…
…and then turn around and draft two goaltenders.
Remember, this is the Islanders that we’re talking about.