Monthly Archives: June 2009
Man, by the time Friday finally arrives, the Islanders are going to look awfully brilliant for coming in last place in the league, winning the lottery and drafting John Tavares, the consensus best player available, first overall.
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In his TSN poll expected to run on Monday, Bob McKenzie will report a near-unanimous ranking of John Tavares as the No. 1 player in this year’s draft. Today, Greg Logan quotes Snow as saying his staff’s view on their unnamed first overall selection was “pretty much a unanimous decision.” Is it possible only the Islanders’ scouts are unanimous in their choice of Matt Duchene or Victor Hedman? LOL.
Look, it seems pretty clear that Garth is using this back stretch to keep everyone on the edge of their seats. We all look forward to the day when everyone in Islanders Country is on the edge of their seats during second, third and fourth-round playoff games.
Snow is also talking a lot about character as the draft nears, telling Greg:
Good people do great things. We’re going to select a player who will spend significant time in the community here. Whoever we select is going to fit personality-wise. It’s going to be a family.
Hey, did you see who was the Ontario Hockey League’s Scholastic Player of the Year?
Look, that would be wonderful, an Islander who becomes a perennial all-star and humanitarian – and fit in perfectly with Scott Gordon’s system! But I have to tell you something. Like a lot of you, I grew up here. Me and my buddies did not care less when Mike Bossy spent every summer back home in Quebec.
The “community” thought was a lovely one by Garth, but there’s no way he’s basing his decision on the first overall pick on it. Look at it this way: when the Islanders select John Tavares, you’ll think, “Wow, the Islanders think the world of JT as a player and a person.” Awwww…
Then there’s the thing from Snow about his players spending “significant time” on the Island. Again, a really sweet notion. But I ask you: does anyone sit around worrying how much time Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Nicklas Lidstrom, Tomas Holmstrom or – heck – even Winnipeg’s own Darren Helm spend in Detroit?
No one has been more committed to Long Island than Rick DiPietro, who established his year-round home and spends the majority of the offseason here. But DiPietro is a big enough sports fan to know that just living on Long Island, being gracious with fans and supporting charities isn’t going to get him the benefit of the doubt. He needs to win.
We loved it when Mike and Lucie Bossy spent the spring on Long Island. That’s because Boss and the Islanders were still playing hockey.
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Until 7:15 pm on Friday, I will stick to my belief that the Islanders are going to draft John Tavares first overall. But know this.
Two days ago, Newsday beat writer Greg Logan wrote a blog entry putting his money down on the Islanders drafting Matt Duchene. I don’t know for certain, but from my old job it’s safe to make the assumption that Greg posted his prediction after speaking with Islanders general manager Garth Snow. You see, Newsday has a Draft Preview in Sunday’s paper, including a story where Snow talks to Greg. In all likelihood, their conversation was on Friday.
In the Sunday story, as always a must-read courtesy of Logie, Snow talks about how his pick “could be different from public opinion.” He even cites the Josh Bailey move of a year ago. He talks of finding players who will help the team “win the Stanley Cup.” Sound familiar? (“Tavares will score a lot of goals. Duchene can win you a Stanley Cup”). Oh, baby…
The GM also plays up “character,” “community” and “family.” This by no means is a thumbs-down to John Tavares – by all accounts a solid kid – but make no mistake: it is a big thumbs up to Matt Duchene.
I’m sticking by my prediction that the Islanders will draft Tavares. I’ll get much more into that (and this “community” stuff) in my next post.
But understand something: by Greg Logan’s blog post on Friday and the general manager’s talk of “family” and potentially going against public opinion, Garth Snow wants everyone to think he’s drafting Matt Duchene.
Or he could actually be preparing you for his selection of Matt Duchene.
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(Just a coincidence that Tavares is front and center, no doubt)
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Warning: With six days left before the draft, there’s not much left in the tank on this subject. Heck, I still can’t even decide if I’m better off covering the Draft or just going to the jam-packed Draft Party.
If you thought I was stretching the last few weeks, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. Sure, I’ll come up with some posts to stir it up and some to hopefully inform. But if you’ve had it with all the Tavheduch stuff long ago, it’s okay if you look away for a few days. I completely understand.
We’ve talked to John Tavares. Victor Hedman. Matt Duchene. After writing about Duchene since Christmas, we made it official three weeks ago: this is a three-horse race.
Pat Brisson, the agent for Tavares and Duchene. Peter Wallen, the agent for Hedman.
Bill Torrey. Jim Devellano. Denis Potvin. Mike Bossy, the big goal scorer passed up.
Billy (NYI May Trade Down in 08) Jaffe. E.J. McGuire of Central Scouting. Pierre McGuire of everywhere. Bob McKenzie of TSN. Butch Goring from the Country of Islanders.
Cripes, just in case, we even talked to Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson - our choice for this year’s “Geezus, I can’t believe we passed on him to take a two-way Canadian forward” Award.
No sense in talking to Garth Snow when the only thing you want to know is who the pick is. Same for Ryan Jankowski, whom the Islanders don’t seem to let out much.
We have our weekly Snojanks Scoreboard, with one to go before Friday. We even brought in a forensics expert to get a handle on what it’s going to cost to move up from pick 26. We predicted, as many others have, that the Islanders will move up from 26.
We looked at defensemen the Islanders could grab between pick 15 and 26 or maybe with their early second rounders. We looked at some forwards who could be had at those picks. We discussed the Islanders’ big need for some elite skill at forward. We even spoke to goaltender Robin Lehner, because the Islanders will draft a goalie after they take Ds and Fs with picks 1-26-31-37, and Robin was the first to take our phone call.
We wrote a fashion piece about the jersey the Islanders picks will be given. A witness texted us blow-by-blow accounts of the physical testing of the Big 3 at the Draft Combine. We dared Garth Snow to find a way to draft 2 of the top 3. We wondered if the Islanders could afford to pass on Tavares. (Even Canadian golfer Mike Weir told Logie the Islanders should take Tavares).
Big mistake: didn’t leave anything for the last week. I’ve got some little behind-the-scenes stuff, but you know those posts will only be followed by comments of “TAVARES”! or – please let’s stop - the latest variation of the Coliseum burning down joke.
So read up if you missed any of the above linked stories. Don’t forget to check out Newsday’s NHL Draft Preview on Sunday. Sounds like they have some good stuff planned. Most of all, enjoy the weekend. I’ll see if there’s anything left to scrape at the bottom of the barrel.
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Good evening, Islanders Country. Just got back from Bethpage Black, Long Island’s muddy celebration of tees and club known as Woods-stock. A few thoughts for the evening after zipping through more than 300 comments.
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I was so excited to get home tonight and see that my good friend and mentor Greg Logan has predicted that the Islanders are going to draft Matt Duchene first overall. That takes a lot of pucks. Good for Gregger.
In summation: the Islanders’ only fulltime mainstream beat writer predicts Duchene, Bob McKenzie – the connected King of Canada – has Victor Hedman and Point Blank selects John Tavares as the Islanders’ pick.
If you’re Garth Snow, you’re probably lighting up a cigar, putting your feet up on the desk and saying, “Fooled ‘em.” There’s some goodness in that.
On the other hand, other than keeping the mystery alive – woo-hoo! I’d prefer suspenseful playoff games - not much to celebrate. If you’re the Islanders, you’re not getting anything to trade back to 2 or 3. Why would a team give up anything? Tampa Bay – contrary to reports – would like Hedman, but they’re not drooling over him. Colorado is more than happy to have Tavares or Hedman fall to them. Both the Bolts and the Avs are not losing sleep over who the Islanders are picking. Both the Bolts and the Avs could not care less that the Islanders have courted and seem to crush on all three kids.
Whomever the Islanders want, they are selecting him first overall.
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At least once a week I write a post that has readers shaking their heads. About once a month, I come back to several Comments that make me wonder how you guys make that leap. Today’s version, brought to you from King Bob of TSN, has Point Blank readers looking waaaaaaay too much into this quote from Texas Hold’em Snow:
Well, when we won the draft lottery (on April 14) I was asked if I knew who we were going to take. I said at the time that I had a pretty good idea but that I wasn’t firmly committed to it until we went through the process of doing our due diligence on all the top guys. Let’s just say the process re-affirmed what I thought back then. We want the same guy now that we wanted back then.
I have no idea why, but many of you read this as evidence the Islanders have always planned on drafting Tavares and there’s no way they’re taking Duchene. Why isn’t it possible Duchene has been the object of their affection all along? It’s actually quite possible.
All Garth did with this quote was set the foundation for his remarks a week from tonight. After he drafts Duchene, Hedman or Tavares, he’ll be able to say this is the kid he’s wanted since lottery night.
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My vote has not changed from yesterday or from the last month. I still have the Islanders taking John Tavares.
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Please make sure to check the end of this post for the Question of the Day.
UPDATED at 8:30 am – The great Gare Joyce wrote this piece on Duchene for espn.com and touches on Tavares vs. Duchene.
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In this corner, I continue to believe the Islanders will draft John Tavares first overall next Friday. This has now gone so far beyond the merits of whether I think Tavares is best for the Islanders, you think Victor Hedman is the easy choice or whether she believes Matt Duchene is the right player for the NYI.
No, with each day it becomes even more illogical that the Islanders would keep a running tab of free tickets requested by their fans – 17,000 and still counting – for a Draft Party they are well aware is a big hit because 90% of attendees want to be there for the coronation of Tavares.
(Bob Nystrom was one of my favorite players. For the last 22 years he has been one of my favorite people. Respectfully, if someone in New York doesn’t have Ny’s autograph by now, they don’t desire it).
Ask anyone around the organization and they’ll privately concede that the Draft Party is a phenomenon not because of another locker room tour, not because of the presence of a few former and current players, but because of John Tavares.
This is now at the point where the pick kinda has to be Tavares.
While many experts have Hedman as the No. 1 pick for the Islanders, we have moved Matt Duchene ahead of him at No. 2 and 25% in our fancy-dopey probability chart. The reasons:
- Billy (The NYI Could Trade Down in 08) Jaffe played golf with Garth Snow, then told Point Blank he feels the Islanders are taking one of the two forwards first overall.
- Pat Brisson, the agent for Tavares and Duchene, told PB that one of his guys will be picked by the Islanders. Most fans wrote off Brisson’s quote, saying that’s what an agent is going to say about his players and Brisson may have just been building up Duchene. That’s fair, but I have to point out that I was stunned Brisson said it because it goes against his usual low-key approach. He’s also friendly with Snow and might actually have an inkling of which player the Islanders are favoriting.
- Then there are the comments that have been uttered more and more frequently by those “around the game” as we get closer to draft night.
Tavares will get you 40 goals. Duchene will get you a Stanley Cup.
Have you seen how much Duchene has filled out? He’s going to be a horse.
(Puhleaze…Gretzky didn’t fill out til he was in his mid-40s)
If Duchene was not playing behind that great line with Cody Hodgson and Evgeny Grachev, his stats would have been so much better. Duchene played with a kid (Jason Dale) Bridgeport just signed to an AHL-ECHL deal. If he was going back to Brampton next year, he’d dominate every bit as Tavares has.
- For the last Snojanks Scoreboard I wrote, “If the Islanders could make this pick in a bubble, they might lean toward Duchene.” That feeling has only increased over the last week.
And besides, consider very recent history: the Islanders hired Scott Gordon over several experienced, successful head coaches…in a bubble. They passed over Luke Schenn, Nikita Filatov, Colin Wilson, Cody Hodgson and Mikkel Boedker to move back, add picks and take Josh Bailey…in a bubble. They have managed the dissemination of information on the health of their franchise goaltender…in a bubble.
The Islanders will make this pick, as it should be, by deciding who’s the best hockey player available without the intrusion of public opinion. Since Christmas, this site has included Matt Duchene in the top 3. There is no doubt in my mind he has been in the Islanders top 3 since at least March. Is he in the top 1? Don’t rule it out, don’t shoot the messenger.
SNOJANKS!
Welcome to the third of four updates of the Snojanks Scoreboard. If you’re just joining us, SNo Thjanks is named after general manager Garth Snow and assistant GM/director of scouting Ryan Jankowski.
Featured every week until the draft, Snojanks reflects the view of Point Blank on the probability of the Islanders’ potential moves with the first pick overall. Here’s our first chart from June 2. Here’s our update from last week. We’ll have one more before next Friday’s first round.
THE SNOJANKS SCOREBOARD
June 19, 2009
51% - The Islanders select John Tavares with the first overall pick
25% – The Islanders select Matt Duchene with the first overall pick
15% - They select Victor Hedman with the first overall pick
5% – They draft two out of Tavares, Hedman and Duchene by making a trade that does not include Kyle Okposo or the Islanders’ first round pick in 2010. Knowing how much they love these three players, I can no longer rule out the Islanders moving their first round pick in 2010. For the umpteenth time, I strongly urge against it. But they could do it.
4% - The Islanders trade down to 2 or 3 and select Duchene or Hedman. What could they possibly get, especially when every team knows they like everyone in the top 3? Likely not much.
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***Question of the Day: If the Islanders draft Matt Duchene over John Tavares and Victor Hedman – and you had some time to digest it, watch him at the Prospect Camp, read all the press clips – what will your reaction be? Post your answer in Comments.
Comments. Comment Guidelines. 3 posts max per reader, let everyone have their opinion, don’t go after other readers. If you missed my meltdown about the Comments section, please read before posting.
4:00 pm - We first had him at 35-1, then mentioned him again two weeks ago as a strong candidate to work with defensemen as an Islanders assistant coach. Now Keen’s Korner reports that Dean Chynoweth has resigned as GM and head coach of Swift Current of the WHL. Dean is a former NYI first round pick of Bill Torrey’s in 1987 whose career was limited to 241 NHL games because of serious injuries. Now 40, he has been a head coach in the Western League for the last decade. He’s wanted a chance back in the NHL. Now confirmed by Greg Logan. Good man, good hire. Comment on this story only here, draft in next thread.
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