THE FINAL SNOJANKS SCOREBOARD
Tavares 80%, Duchene 15%, Trade 4%, Hedman 1%
(Thank you, Palm Isle blog)
Islanders Point Blank on Twitter
It’s not like I post under an alias like “Volek,” or don’t run a photo of my actual, uh, character-filled mug right on this blog. I’m also on Facebook – granted, with pictures of a beautiful family that I Photoshopped.
It’s not like I’m going into Witness Protection on Friday night. You’ll know where to find me. Sometime in the 10:00 pm hour, I’ll be responsibly nursing a few one-dollar Miller pints at RC Dugans in East Meadow. Note to the Dugans guys: you do have bouncers, right?
The Islanders are going to draft John Tavares first overall. We’ve all been through the reasons why. B.D. Gallof has a strong column on some of his. (Make sure you Comment on B.D.’s site and applaud his artistry).
There’s no reason for me to wait until Thursday or Friday to update the Snojanks Scoreboard. Actually, it’s kind of silly to even have a shred of doubt on the Tavares pick.
There are only two reasons why I won’t go 100% for Tavares. One is because of my respect for Greg Logan. Greg knows this team well and has sources all over the organization. When he gets off the phone with Garth Snow last Friday and posts Matt Duchene as his prediction on his blog and then in the Sunday newspaper, you seriously have to consider it.
The other reason is that I spoke to not one, not two, but three people closely connected to the Islanders in the last 18 hours. For the record, they called me. One told me management loves Duchene, duh. One said, “As your friend, I really don’t think you wanna hitch your wagon to this Tavares pick.” The other agreed with my contention that only Charles Wang, Garth Snow and Ryan Jankowski know who the pick is today. Therefore, linking the Draft Party hoopla to a Tavares pick would be a mistake.
(Thanks, Puck Daddy and Barry)
Still, you have to wonder about the Islanders setting up jersey-personalization stations at the Draft Party.
Does that mean I can get R.J. FAIL 09? (Relax, Jankowski. These are just jokes. Two months of this will do this to ya. Pick the right guy and I’ll headline my post “The Snojanks Redemption.”)
And dear readers, I get it. If I’m wrong on Tavares, you probably won’t pay much attention to next week’s 20-part Point Blank series. It’s entitled, “The Players I’m Almost Certain the Islanders will Sign in Unrestricted Free Agency.”
THE SNOJANKS SCOREBOARD
June 23, 2009
80% - The Islanders select John Tavares with the first overall pick
15% – The Islanders select Matt Duchene with the first overall pick
4% – They draft two out of Tavares, Hedman and Duchene by making a trade that does not include Kyle Okposo
1% - They select Victor Hedman with the first overall pick
Comments. Comment Guidelines. 3 posts max per reader, let everyone have their opinion, don’t run over your fellow readers. If you missed my meltdown about the Comments section, please read before posting.
136 Responses to THE FINAL SNOJANKS SCOREBOARD
Tavares 80%, Duchene 15%, Trade 4%, Hedman 1%
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Seth says:
CB,let me ask you i pray evreyday that tavares is the pick but how did he jump from 51 percent to 80??
TAVRES OR BUST
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Staten Islander says:
From your keyboard to Garth’s ears CB
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Thomas32 says:
WOW, that could be a BIG problem if you upset that many people Garth!!!
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matt says:
im all about tavres believe me but the fact the Duchene is higher then Hedman kind of scares me becaue this should have been a 2 horse race the whole time
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txdbog says:
3 days until Tavares is officially an Islander…cant friggen wait!
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bob l says:
can you elaborate on the jersey personalization stations? are they standard, new this year…
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Gutty34 says:
I am going to Vegas with Snow when this is over – I am not playing cards but will bet on all his hands. Talk about mind freak. I am all over the place. The thoughts in my head wont stop. Duchene. Tavares. No Hedman. Wait – has to be Tavares. This guy said what…its gonna be Duchene. Wait – this is being set up at the draft. Must be Tavares – Snow cant alienate 20,000 fans. Someone saw a yellow and blue Jersey in the back of SnowJanks car. Oh – Hedman must secretly be back. I cant take it anymore!! Ahhhhhhh!!!
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UIF says:
Hmm…must be a strong conviction you have regarding Tavares if you upped the percentage after that pseudo-warning from the second “connected person”…
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starz31 says:
does anyone know if the draft will be covered on the radio or online-streamed?
hockeystreams.com will carry it but it aint free. -
isles99 says:
garth snow, if you’re reading this:
i know you mandate is to win the cup so please select tavares as he stands out above evryone else in the eyes of all the scouts…he could help your team not only at the box office but on the ice as well and HE will be the one who gets you the cup(s)…..you know what tavares is all about, you know his pedigree…that being said, do the right thing garth, give the long time fans of this franchise what they want and what all of he houckey world agrees on….thats all man…..plus would it hurt that if you draft tavares, your season ticket base instantly increases because i ill follow through on my promise to buy season tickets if you follow through yours on selecting the best player, tavares….uncontened in the eyes of respected scouts everywhere -
CB – any way Dugans can do $1.00 drafts starting now straight through Friday night? We may all need it over the next 4 days. DO they deliver pitchers to work??
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CB: totally agree Tavaras will be an Islander, but the other 1st and 2nd round picks will be interesting.
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Matt says:
great post, chris. i hope you are right about the islanders pick. friday can’t come soon enough!
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avolp55turgeonfichaud says:
geez those three comments of people you spoke to in the last 18 hours are anything but comforting. None of those comments sound like Tavares has a chance, and I certainly hope that isn’t true. Someone close to the organization saying, “as a friend” I’m warning you to not run to the bank on JT- makes me very, very afraid.
I am one of the 20,000 (and counting) who will be sorely disappointed if I can’t hear the old barn go bisserk on Friday night. I am not okay with more boos.
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Healy says:
While I think the Isles can’t really fail with picking between Tavares and Duchene, I have a clear cut favorite (the one most fans have). The big time, the spotlight, the hype, its all gotten to me and I believe that the way a fanbase views its franchise can play a part in the culture of the organization down to even influencing players to want to come here.
That all being said, I am gearing up for disappointment, and I am starting to get sick of the roller coaster ride this franchise is.
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#7 , they have had that set up since last season I believe in the team store out in the main lobby area of the coliseum. You can have any jersey lettered and numbered in a few minutes! VERY COOL!!
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Irish Isle says:
CB – Is there a reason you dropped VH worse then a GM stock?
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Jim says:
Just got off the phone with Isles tix officer. Told himwe would not be able to make Draft Party and asked what HE thought the reaction would be KNOWING the fans want/demand Tavares. He said, and I quote:
“People need to realize they don’t always get what they want. This is not about what the fans want, it’s about who the organization thinks is best for this team and system. That’s all I am going to say.”
Read into that what you will, but it sounds, to me, as if they are preparing callers for NOT picking Tavares.
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orngfan says:
i dont think the islanders can survive drafting anyone but tavares. maybe they dont want to survive. who knows.
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Richard says:
I hope your right, but arent you the least bit worried about Hedman? Bob Mckenzie thinks they going with Hedman, as well as several other mock drafts. And you really think there is only 1 percent chance they take Hedman. It bothers me the islanders have done the unconventional thing every year since i can remember, why will that change?
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Dan L says:
I agree that those comments by “connected people” arent very settling. But, CB is right, nobody outside of Garth, Janks, and Wang knows who the pick is going to be. Things get leaked from front offices all the time, those 3 know this and for all we know could be sending out subtle, false hints about Hedman and Duchene. For all we know, these “leaks” could be aimed at setting the Islanders up for some sort of major move after we draft JT.
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Jim – this won’t be a very popular response, but that’s exactly what they should say. It doesn’t necessarily give away the pick’s identity, it merely proves that they’re actually doing this the right way.
I want Tavares because I think he’s the best hockey player for the team, not because the fans will pout like children if he’s not picked.
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Gloobenberg says:
Dan L..EXACTLY
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jim, i really hope you’re wrong becuase this the systemcrap is pure bs, scott gordonwonteven be here 3 years from now…..if the isles dont pick tavares,they should know what coming to them. aside from 3-5 thosuand, not many people will sign up for ticket packages and that is the cold-hearted, evil, yet honest true…a franchise cant survive with those numbers…fans will jump ship including me after all we have been through…..i just hope the organization knows that before they go against the grain AGAIN
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Dooks94 says:
If there indeed is going to be a Coliseum full of Islander fans then Snow and Wang better realize this would be a huge mistake to promote a draft party of this caliber if they are gonna take somebody other than Tavares. The place is falling apart as it is and it will crumble down if Tavares is NOT selected. And I can’t guarantee I personally will be able to keep MY allegiance to the franchise. It would be devasting
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thepolishprince says:
I hope BD and CB are right. I have been blindsided by this franchise so many times that I’ll believe it’s JT when I hear him picked.
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Mikey says:
Bold predictions Chris. Apparently you don’t put any stock into Bob McKenzie’s “educated guess” that Hedman will go number 1. Given that our GM is a former goalie and we have ZERO big, puck-moving defensemen in the system it should surprise nobody if we pick Victor. I’ll be very pleased with either Tavares or Hedman, because I believe both guys can be foundational pieces. They’ve both been hyped for years, and each guy brings very rare abilities to the table.
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Akeem says:
Anyone else find it interesting that two of the defensemen being talked about for the Isles at 26, Matthew Clark and Calvin de Haan, were teammates of Matt Duch and JT at Brampton and Oshawa, respectively, this season. It’s possible the team could draft a pair of teammates…
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matt says:
0oh man ive never been this pumped in my whole life as an isles fan JOHN TAVARES WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
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Akeem your point kind of scares me, we did draft DiBenedetto and Martin last year, who played in Sarnia together. God I hope thats not a trend.
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IsleofNJ says:
*Someone close to the organization saying, “as a friend” I’m warning you to not run to the bank on JT*
Probably just more misdirection.“People need to realize they don’t always get what they want. This is not about what the fans want, it’s about who the organization thinks is best for this team and system. That’s all I am going to say.”
so says the Isles tix office.
All they are doing is repeating what Garth said.Bottom line, we will all have a reaction to the choice of #1. However, in reality it is out of our hands.
Unless Snow, Wang, Jankowski come out & say who is being picked, we can’t be 100% sure until someone is standing at the podium.
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Steve says:
CB.. This doesn’t make sense. You are saying 80% Tavares even though your sources are warning you, “Don’t hitch your wagan to Tavares.” How can you explain your 80%
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thats a shock even tho i want tavares deep down i think hedman will be chosen
but 1% lol i hope thats TRUE!!!!! -
@29 , good point! Not to mention Bridgeport just signed Jason Dale from the Brampton Battalion to a one year deal.
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mt275 says:
I think Snow, and Wang have decided on Tavares awhile ago. They are letting this mystery plays out to generate PR, and excitement. If Snow had announced Tavares after the lottery, there would be very little coverage at this point.
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fwb says:
This is why this has/should be kept a secret. All these posts/blogs/articles etcetc. Build up the suspense. Get the buzz to a fever pitch. What comes, comes. If it is what we hope/suspect – the juice off of that will be great. 3 days or so to go ….
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Jon Mac says:
I agree with Garth Snow when he says the Islanders should not take fan reaction into account when selecting a draft pick. With that being said, if you know that 80 percent of your fans want a player and 20,000 of those very same fans have signed up to come to your party, you better pick the player the fans want, or announce the pick in advance to head off a potentially very embarrassing scene at the NVMC.
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drp79 says:
You can’t use the first overall pick for a guy who wasn’t even on the first line of his own junior team. Duchene… can’t be. It’s gonna be Tavares and I’ll be there for at least ten games next year regardless of the record. If not, I’m done. I’m tired of being laughed at… What would be the point in rooting anymore?
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Who’s getting a TAVARES jersey on Friday??? I AM!!! : ) What color is everyone getting??
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Vukota says:
“People need to realize they don’t always get what they want. This is not about what the fans want, it’s about who the organization thinks is best for this team and system. That’s all I am going to say.”
ALWAYS????? When have we gotten anything we wanted in the last 20 years???? This franchise is a joke. Part of me hopes they pass on JT so I can be put out of my misery…
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I understand why the management believes they should not base their pick on the fans opinion, and I’m not arguing that the fans should necessarily be the deciding factor in who gets picked. However, I think it has to be taken into account to a degree. Public corporations have shareholder meetings so that the owners of stock in those companies can voice their concerns/opinions. They do this because without the shareholders these companies would lose a ton of capital. Well, considering we, as fans, are a major factor in bringing in revenues to the Islanders, why should you not take into account our opinions? Anyway, that is my last two cents of the day as I have reached my 3 comment limit and have to go anyway. I’m sure some will disagree with my opinion but I think it is at least somewhat valid, to a point.
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Brian b says:
It’s definitely Tavares. No doubt. Garth is doing this the right way. Garth is playing everything close to the vest, and has done so the last 3 months.
Why on earth then will he make comments to make it seem like Duchene or Hedman is the pick. It seems like everything he has said, or CB’s source, or the ticket office guy from that comment, its being looked at by people as indication they are picking Duchene. Why give it away…he’s just saying the right thing.
Is there any coincidence that we haven’t heard one person say that the Isles love Tavares or anything indicating its him. Isles haven’t done that because they don’t want to give it away.
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thanks thomas32…
CB, i’m OUTRAGED, that percentage should be 91%
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John says:
Personally, if it is not Tavares I will not waste anymore time with this team. And neither will any of you in a few years when they’re gone.
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Jamie says:
Chris
I really hope you are right about Tavares but I have been emailing Greg Logan and Kerry Cornils(Of the Islanders) and it really sounds like Isles WILL NOT DRAFT- John Tavares! I am so upset that I find it very hard to do my job at work! I love the Islanders and they always break my heart! Wang and Snow are a joke until they prove me wrong! Drafting Tavares= Hope for all Islanders fans that we are on the way up!!!!!!!
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Michael says:
28-Mikey and all others – so what that our GM was a former Goalie – would you be happier if he wasa former RW? Or do you not like the fact that he became a GM directly after being a goaltender? Anyway – all of the ranting and raving today or on Friday night will be meaningless until we all see the players perform and maybe in five years we can look back and see whom the best pick was.
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bossy22 says:
It’s a slam dunk. Too many factors pointing to Tavares. Draft party + draft contest = Tavares. I really believe he has kept hush hush about the pick because of Burke going public about wanting Tavares. Burke can’t do anything until he knows what Snow has in mind. If Snow is saying Duchense, Burke would trade with someone else. By Snow not declaring anyone as the #1 pick, Burke’s hands are tied…..Burke, consider yourself “snowjobbed”.
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I think Garth just likes watching everybody squirm. He probably reads this stuff and laughs his ass off up in his office. “Hey Charlie, check out this new post?”
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Lorne Myers says:
Again cautiously optimistic on Tavares, but just need to hear it out of Snow’s mouth at 7:15 on Friday.
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Michael (47) – You misconstrued my previous comment re Garth Snow being a former goalie. It was not a criticism. I actually think Garth has done a decent job so far. My point was that as a former goalie, he may be more inclined toward building a team from the goal out (i.e. with a cornerstone, franchise defenseman). Just wanted to clarify.
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matt says:
The Islanders will embarrass themselves again if they don`t pick JT…for some reason the Isles always think they know better than the rest of the league. Thats why they finished last overall.
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dose says:
good point by 49. if the decision was made a while ago as snow says, everything after that is PR and gamesmanship. who better to aim your gamesmanship at than brian burke?
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Brother Rat says:
Ha, Sumo Goalie, agreed! Watching a beaten fan base squirm probably isn’t the best thing, but at least that means he’s taking an interest in us little people….which is more than we can say for past management.
Tavares or Duchene–this will be one exciting night…
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beatlebailey says:
one thing about the whole argument that the team shouldnt listen to the fans is this: The team DOES NOT EXIST without fans. In this case where the consensus Number 1 John Tavares is also the fans overwhelming favorite the organization HAS to pick John Tavares. It will be viewed as an insult to the remaining fans the Isles have as well as unbelievably arrogant on Snow’s part if he takes anyone else at No. 1. he could trade the pick etc…but if he does not take Tavares at 1 it will be a travesty
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Thanks Mikey for the clarification – I could understand the thinking of building from the back first. I hope they take the forward – I am not qualified to determine which one – I have not seen either play (as 95% of the fans have not either). Taveras sounds like the pick to make – but Duchense sounds pretty sweet as well.
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Dang, we can’t even watch what numbers the jersey customization people pull out, since the 9 from Tavares’ #91 could be a #6 for Hedman.
I think that eliminates Duchene, though. Since we don’t know what number he’d wear, how could they personalize jerseys for him?
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what better way to put your ‘stamp’ onto a franchise than to take the kid who’s been on the radar as the #1 pick for longer than you’ve been a gm… god it’s sooo simple and we’ve all gotten fooled
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Johnny Jet says:
If Snow sways from the consensus pick at 7:15 and then the prospect comes on 15 minutes later. There will be hardly no one left there. Would feel bad for everyone involved(Hedman or Duchene,fanbase, the lighthouse project). This franchise needs a shot in a arm. Wang you are a business man. Think of the jerseys sold and 1000′s of tix sold for next year for a team that probably won’t make the playoffs.
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phil says:
A buddy and i were lucky enough to snag a couple tickets to the draft up in montreal so we will be there in person. Hopefully it will be a joyous occasion.
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Dadi says:
1 % ? So there’s still a chance…
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the bomber says:
i think tavares has been the chalk pick all along. While I admire our host taking a stand and going on record, i think the friend warnings being mentioned is just to make it look like he made a tough choice, or at least stayed strong despite all the naysayers. however, this is not that tough a choice. the entire hockey world has known that John Tavares would be picked #1 on friday since about 2005. He has done nothing to make anyone see it differently. If the Isles try to get cute and pick someone else we will remain the laughingstock of this league for the foreseeable future…
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ken says:
Forget about the stanley cup. i just want a filled building and exciting hockey. Ive been beaten too long to wish for a cup, just want competitive, exciting hockey!!
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Some really good points in this thread today. I agree with the shareholder analogy- while fans cannot be the deciding factor, they NEED to be a factor. We pay the money, we watch the painful 9-0 hockey games. I’m not saying that I or anyone else on PB knows more than Jankowski; I am just saying that as a business, you can’t always think/act with a blind eye towards PR with your fans.
I find it SO strange that not ONCE have we heard “the islanders management LOVES JT”. Meanwhile, its a known fact that most scouting staffs in the NHL would be drooling at the chance to take JT (and would take him before anyone else). I’m pretty sure the Islanders also love JT, maybe the same as MD and VH, maybe even more so. They definitely aren’t saying things about JT because they don’t want to give it away. This way, the fans will soil their pants on Friday and other GMs like Burke can’t act due to Snow’s “indecision”.
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Strummer's Army says:
I hope if it is JT he announces his number right away. In case he doesn’t want to wear number 91 (which I hope he selects a different number). Hate to see the Isles customization station get it wrong. If they pick Tavares.
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I think the bigger mystery is what Snow plans to do with the rest of the early picks. Personally, I’d still rather see him stay pat and take the best players available at those spots. I don’t think we have enough ammo to move into the top 15 where it would actually make a difference.
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snow is keeping it a secret, b/c why should he give the other teams an advantage on knowing who will be available when.
Further, think of the increased excitement and attendence at the party, if the pick is unknown and at 7pm, he announces JT. You have to think people will be even more inclined to pick up a ticket package when they are riding that wave.
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Frei says:
“Actually, it’s kind of silly to even have a shred of doubt on the Tavares pick.”
Is it REALLY that certain?
I figured someone as close as you’ve been over the last 10 years would know way better than that.
Theres ALWAYS doubt on Mockery Island.
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Jethro09 says:
I can’t take this anymore. I wish the draft was tonight. On the positive side, I haven’t been this excited about the Isles since their last playoff run. Pick JT, Garth. Do the right thing.
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Agreed Sumo. Take JT #1 and use the remaining picks on the BPA. Throw ‘em at the wall and see what sticks down the road.
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I do find it funny when people in opposition to Tavares say fans and posters on this site “don’t know more than Snow/Jankowski and the Isles scouts do”. And their right, we don’t nor should we.
But I think that the fans are clamoring for JT not because they saw him play in a couple of World Junior games or because of a few YouTube clips. They want JT because scouts that have been following JT for far longer than Snow/Jankowski and the rest of the Isles’ scouts have placed JT as the top prospect in this draft YEARS ago and those opinions haven’t changed.
I for one am much more willing to trust the assessments of scouts with services such as the ISS, scouts that have followed JT and all the top prospects diligently for the past four years, than the Isles scouts, who have watched them for one season, and who knows how closely they even watched any individual player.
So while fans probably don’t know more about these prospects than the Isles’ scouts, I’m willing to bet that Snow and the Isles’ scouts don’t know more about these prospects than the scouts from the various services who have followed these kids around for years. They have JT as the consensus #1 pick so that’s enough for me.
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Michael S says:
It just can’t be Duchene. Duchene wears #9, which is Gillies retired number. How could the Isles customize Duchene Jerseys at the Draft Party…when they don’t even know what # he will be wearing? It just has to be Tavares.
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I don’t quite agree with the shareholder analogy as you can look at it the other way. In goverment we elect representatives to protect us from mob rule (and the bad, purely emotional decisions that would come from mob rule)–well, that is how its supposed to work
But I already expounded above that fan reaction plays a part in the culture of the franchise and affects its direction. The Isles shouldn’t select Tavares based on fan reaction and the culture alone. They should select him because he has broken scoring records, been on hockey’s radar more frequently then the Islanders themselves have been the last few years, and is the concensus pick by the majority of the sport and related media. The fact that it may bring back fans and give a jolt to the ones still here is icing on the cake. -
Michael says:
CHRIS, PLEASE PUT UP A BLOG ON WHY YOU ARE SO SURE. YOU KEEP SAYING IT’S TAVARES, BUT YOU ARE GOING AGAINT WHAT WE ARE BEING FED TO BELIEVE BY GARTH AND GREG LOGAN.
PLEASE, JUST TELL US WHY YOU ARE SO SURE, AND IF WE SHOULD SLEEP EASY AT NIGHT.
That is all!
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CB,
I still read your 20-part series on UFA’s. Gives me something to do when I’m not downing shots worrying about whethewr this team will soon be known as Saskatchewan Silver Snakes or the Kansas City Pine Tar Bretts.
Also, I could use some knowledge for my upcoming fantasy draft.
My only regret is Tavares was never cloned so when we take Hedman or Duchene I’d know we’d still have a shot at a carbon copy through a pick swap and move up.
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Belarus says:
Pick will be Duchene. I saw it in my dream. Buckle up, Islanders country.
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#72, it’s not about what the most scouts think. It’s about what OUR scouts think and who they feel is best for the organization. So, while Tavares might be the best goal scorer in the draft the Isles may feel that Duchene is the better player for this team, at this time with the things he brings to the table. A lot of political pundants said Obama was the better pick last year, for president, and his stock is dropping faster than the stock market lately. It’s about who the organization feels is best for them, not what others think…That’s all I’m saying, hope it wasn’t too convoluted…
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joe p says:
If snow picks Duchene, Newsday’s headline should read:”who is the real ‘Duch’”
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“Islanders get Duch’d at Draft”
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cahoward says:
What worries me is that I just don’t see what making people believe that it will be Duchene does for anyone. If you told me that everyone (Logan, etc) were saying Hedman, I’d say, OK, maybe they are trying to get Tampa to bite and move up to #1 to get their man. But saying it’s going to be Duchene does absolutely nothing, and this is why I’m worried. If it isn’t Duchene, why are these Isles insiders telling this to Botta, and Logan coming away thinking Duchene? The Isles can very easily not tell anyone that they are taking Tavares without leading people down the Duchene path, so I have to say am I a bit worried. But which one of us isn’t? If we weren’t, we wouldn’t be on here right now.
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Ryan says:
I wonder a bit about whether Chris’ strident approach–his certitude that the pick is Tavares–is partly advocacy for the fanbase. Is he cutting the brakes on the Tavares bandwagon (in Larry Brooks’ words) in order to force the Islanders’ hands if the pick actually is Duchene? Is he using the blog to fan the flames a bit higher, essentially daring the organization to announce their pick early or face an incredibly irate fanbase?
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Who would you pick?:
KATE MURRAY: Well, I cannot take sides on this, I am only here to judge.
TOM SUOZZI: 90% of my thoughts on who to pick will not change, only 10% need to be developed. -
Pat says:
I have reached my “marginal utility” for discussion about our # 1 pick. Enough already and just make the pick already !!
However, would be interested Chris, in hearing more about what we might do either at the 26th pick – or – discussion of who our dance partners might be in an attempt to trade up in the first round ???
That is something I am hungry for information about………
GO ISLES – Don’t screw it up Garth !
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Alan says:
I swear I had two dreams about the draft – a bad one first, then a good one – I AM SO NERVOUS!!!
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I don’t know, Jim (77), that is exactly the reasoning that leads us to stellar picks like Robert Nilsson. All the other scouts and their opinions be damned, because the Islanders scouts are the only ones who could know what’s best for the Islanders. If they were so good that they could repeatedly defy conventional wisdom and come out on top, we probably wouldn’t be drafting first this year and the fan base would be coming off the high of a deep playoff run. Again, if we were the Red Wings and management had an “against the grain” idea, I’d be more accepting. The Isles haven’t earned that trust yet…all of their creative out of the box ideas end up blowing up in their faces, with all of us left to try and defend the decisions in random comment sections.
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Hockey1919 says:
Although it is rationale to take into account what the ISS and the rest of the scouting community (maybe not Redline)have to say about Tavares and the rest of the draft class, it isn’t necessarily true that the Islanders scouting staff wasn’t watching the players at the top of the board the past few years as well. After all, the players are still all on the ice competing at the same time whether they are last, this, or next year’s draft class. We all already know about Taylor Hall so there are no surprises there. All that changes is the level of scrutiny and the scouting services do the same.
The question that needs to be answered is who has the better scouts, the Islanders or the draft services? Unfortunately, we won’t know that for some time. The draft services provide a chance for teams to see if the team is way out of line in their thinking or not, but when you are talking about the players going 1-5 they have probably been overanalyzed by everybody.
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We don’t need goals. We just need people who will visit sick children and give out canned foods during the holidays, because this is one big loser of a family!!!!
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smytty94 says:
7th woman, you are absolutely correct. Good to see some level headed fans. Its not JT or bust. The Isles need ALL 3 of these kids so whoever they take will help the team. I am hoping and thinking it will be JT, but I sure am not one of those “fans” who will not root for them anymore if JT isn’t the choice.
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Mike79 says:
But you are going 100% for JT.
Doesn’t sound like they are picking him though. They love Duchene as they go with personality over talent. Wang and Snow are morons if they continue this trend and don’t pick JT.
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i just cant take this back and forth anymore my head is spining. it will all be worth it if we take tavares. i would be shocked if we dont take tavares because whoever else we take is going to be booed and if its MD or Hedman they will be put in a terrible situation a situation that will make it harder for either of them to b succesful and snow is going to have to go buy a wig or something to hide out all around long island because kate murray will no longer be the most hated person on long island
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i just dont understand the logic that 7th woman and others use….you guys keep on saying its a win win situation….well, no duh!!! my question to you guys is, if you have the best pick, which we do, do you pick the best player? the answer is obvious. of course, you do! the cosnesus best player from all the scouts is john tavares. anything else is a flat out dissapoint!!! we all know hedman and duchene are good players. thats why they are probably going to be picked in the top 3. its just that with the best pick, you take best player and leave no room for second-guessing which is essentially what would happen if we were to take duchene or hedman. so while it is a win-win situation in some respect, it is certainly NOT in others if we didnt pick the cosnensus best player and he turned out to be the best out of the three…..also, i know it takes years to judge picks but why take a chance to put yourself in the same position as you are now 10 years from today…in response to ryan or the 82nd post, i applaud CB if that is his real motive becuase history (Mike Milbury) has shown that picking john tavares is the right, obvious, and logical thing to do for this franchise for so many reasons!!
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#72…JT is a better player, what is so hard to understand? Just because Snow might not think so does not change this fact.
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StevieL says:
I for one can’t wait for this to end on Friday night. I have no doubt that the pick will be Tavares!It has to be!
CB Better news!, only 4 days till the 2010 “HaPuKa” watch starts!! Top 3 picks in 2010 draft! Taylor Hall, Teemu Pulkkinen, Kiril Kabanov!! Can we expect PB to do in depth analysis of each? LOL!! Don’t bother!!I think we are all going to need a vacation, and a pint or 2 at Dugan’s!!!! -
Jim @ 78: The problem is, the Isles scouts don’t exactly have a glowing track record on draft day. That’s just reality. While the GM has changed, many of the scouts on the team’s staff now are the same as in years past under Milbury. And the Isles haven’t exactly been stellar are draft day in many years. There have been lots of misses, Robert Nilsson over Zach Parise, Ryan O’Marra, Petteri Nokalinen, Sean Bergenheim to name a few. I don’t know if those selections were the scouts’ calls or Milbury’s, but the track record is weak. That’s why I say that I trust ISS’s assessment of who’s the #1 prospect over the Isles’ staff.
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The one thing is if you want the Dman i wouldnt be happy but i could understand the logic behind the pick. What i dont understand is that if Tavares and MD are so close (which i dont think they are ) and 90% of your fanbase wants Tavares shouldnt that b the pick just not to dismantle your fanbase?
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The logic is that the isles need talent. All 3 of these kids bring something differnt to the table. Go read up on Duchene and you will see he is very highly regarded by scouts as well. Some say he is on an even scale with JT.
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felix says:
what amazes me about all of this is how is there is any doubt (if there are) who should be taken over all. Hedman and Duchene as much as they will be great players the islanders need scoring. Duchene is quoted as saying he does not shoot enough. we had zero 20 goal scorers. 20 goals a year is only 1 goal every 4 games. now you have JT who is predicted by all to be at least a 40 goal scorer and anyone has to debate whether or not the islanders should be drafting him. Amazing. The islanders need so much, but most of all goal scoring, who cares if right now he is one dimensional, that dimension is pretty significant. anyone even snow and the scouts if they are entertaining or picking any one other than JT are INSANE(like crazy eddy).
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LOL @ NYI FAN (83)!
I myself will never TGIF more than I will this week. Friday cannot get here soon enough. -
Zarley Z says:
To perhaps soothe some concerns over Jim’s ticket rep experience, I thought I’d share my own recent experience that was a bit different than Jim’s. It went something like this:
“So you guys going to pick Tavares or what?
(If I say yes will you buy a ticket package?)
“No, but I just might if you pick him.”
(Will you be at the draft party?)
“Yes.”
He then paused and said, (Here, take my card, I’ll be there, you won’t be disappointed. It’s going to be a good night – that’s all I can say.)Who knows if he actually knew anything or not or if he was doing his best to sell some tickets, but he certainly seemed to feel like Tavares is the guy..
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last post CB, i know some scouts like duchene smytty but all scouts rank tavares number 1. you pick the best player remember and not the second or third best player. how can you argue against that? you can answer your own questions about the best player by reading my post above. and can you please show which scouts/articles claim that duchene is on the same level as JT? i can show you a trillion articles/scouts saying JT is better….if you show me one besides the Red line report that says duchene is better, i will concede that you have wont he argument.
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doc says:
Over a 90 posts in less that 1 to 2 hours. Fans must be worried. :O
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Joe says:
CB – have you seen the Toronto Sun today? In what wild scenario could Burke get JT from the Isles? I hope you’re right on the pick but I think they’re going to take Duchene.
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Alex Kinkead says:
if anyone besides Tavares is picked I will have a heartattack
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Nobody doubts that all three players are very talented young men. Yes, in the big picture it is obviously a “win/win” but if I was going to offer you a free $5, $10, or $20, it wouldnt make much sense to take the $5 or the $10. Yes it would still be free money, but why not take the most you can? And #74, I agree with your comments on my shareholder analogy but just to clarify what I said: I said fans should be A factor in deciding, not THE factor.
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zeike says:
First, I have no issue if Hedman is the pick. And I’m sure Duchene will be a hell of a player but in a head to head w/ JT and Mattyboy I don’t believe it’s really that close. So JT or Prince Vic.
Lastly, the thing that really bothers me about this whole smoke screen is that Tavares is the most hyped junior player since Crosby yet we won’t declare him our pick while last year at this same time we were unequivocally stating that if we got the #1 pick we were taking Stamkos. JT is better than little Steve-O. This is what kills me.
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Jzimm says:
Chris, you would never make it as a anonymous blogger. You don’t even seem to know the proper qualifications. First of all, you can not post your picture. It as to be a square box with a silouette face. Secondly, “Volek” is not a qualified alias. You have to name your alias after a Swedish forward, not one from the former Czechloslavakia. Have you considered “Lindgren” or “Kallur”? Lastly, you have to mark you claims by (L3) or (K5) (Depending on if you went with Lindgren or Kallur).
I agree that Tavares will be the #1 pick by the New York Islander. Thank you for your time.
Sincerely,
Nilsson… yes THAT Nilsson… the one who will NEVER be mistaken for Forsberg and the one WHO WILL NEVER BE HALF AS GOOD AS Zach Parise. Mr. Snow, learn from Milbury’s mistakes, take the concensus, obvious pick which I have rated (N1).Thank you again,
Nilsson -
David Volek says:
CB – thanks for the shout-out. It is a discreet alias, isn’t it? It just reminds you, ever so subtly, that great things can happen to this franchise with time, hard work and a little bit of luck. Perhaps when the draft excitement dies down you can fill us in on where that timeless hero David Volek (the real one) is now?
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Eric says:
CB, The Islanders will not get 20,000 people on friday but how in the hell are they able to fit 20,000 into a building that sits 16,234. Yes I know there will be floor seating, but its up to 20,000 now. Is that a made up number?
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islanders1984 says:
There is no way tehy can claim 20,00 people will be at this party and then go up on stage and select anyone other then Tavares. I don’t care what snow says, yu cannot ignore your fan base when 95% of it want a particular thing. Unless matt duchene has a killer year or the isles make playoffs, how will this team recover from not picking Tavares
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Isles99, I will try to find it. I saw it earlier today through a message board. I don’t think it was Redline, but I will check.
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#96 most of Milbury’s scouts are long gone. The transition started under Niel Smith and Snow continued it. They (annoyingly gave very little coverage to this).
It sounds like it is going to be a very interesting few weeks in Islander history.
I think the Isles winning the 1st pick, CB winning the writer of the year award, soon our pick will win rookie of the year, then the Jennings and Vezna from Ricky, and then the cup.
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Kevin Prendergast, Oilers Asst. GM:
“Very similar to Tavares, he has all the tools. He’s probably more of a playmaker. Makes great plays, great thought process on the ice. Good faceoff guy. Any one of those three, they can intermingle (Tavares, Hedman, Duchene). They’re all number one picks. Whoever’s picking three is going to get a hell of a player. “ -
With the 1st pick in the 2009 entry draft, the New York Islanders pick, a popcorn machine?
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Jethro, you’re right. It has been a very bad decade in Islander first round drafting. Right now. Okposo is the lone gem. Hopefully Bailey will follow suit. This is also the first decade that the Islanders have not had a first round pick. It’ happened twice. The report card is DiPietro – D. Bergenheim – D. Nilsson D- (As in D minus) Nokelainen D(ish) O’Marra – F. Okposo – B (At Least). Bailey (Jury is still out) – Just make a good pick in 09.
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ok smytty i hope CB forgives me but that is the opinion of one guy and thats fine….you still can’t discount the fact that everyone else says tavares is better wheather it be mckenzie, ISS, NHL central scouting….i trust the opinions of those established scouting services over the opinion of one guy….so what exactly does duchene have that tavares doesn’t? what would be the point in pissing off your already pissed off fanbase by selecting a player ONE scout feels is equal to jt, not better but equal…remember every respected scouting services says jt is better…..100% sweep
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Jzimm, don’t you mean Hip KneePietro?
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islestherapy says:
jeeezus i cant handle this. if they dont take Tavares on Friday, I’m gonna drink until i can convince myself that they DID take him.
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Danielle says:
The phone calls from the “connected” sources are kind of curious. They’re probably speculating as much as Chris.
I hope I can convince my friends to go to the pub afterwards. It’s not often we get $1 specials in New York (boy I miss the bars down south.)
How many of you plan on going to the post draft draft party?
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Why are people doubting CB’s intuition or thinking he’ll look foolish if it’s not Tavares? Everyone who is prognosticating is simply going by their best intuition, past experience, and affiliated info.
But GM Snow has obviously established one thing: That he doesn’t want us to know who the pick is before it happens — and that may include Isles “sources” making the calls.
So if CB or anyone guesses “wrong,” well, hell, that’s because they’re not the one making the pick! No autopsy, no foul.
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Tom B says:
SWEETNESS!!!!!! that’s a PURDY jersey. I’ll take 2 of them!
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Bruce says:
only 1% for hedman…..i dont know about that. Its more likely Hedman would get taken before they make a trade to take two of the three.
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19 ISLE in NJ 22 says:
CB – So you believe it’s so far out of the rhelm of possibility that Snow drafts Hedman alone with the 1st overall pick that you believe it’s actually 4 times more likely that the Isles can get 2 of the 3 via a trade for another top 3 pick? Or did I read that wrong?
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Snowman says:
I think at this point Snow is infatuated with making it clear the fans will not be making this pick for him. Look at it from that perspective. If he wants John Tavares, he will draft him. But he just wants it to be clear that the pick was made because it was an organizational decision, not fan pressure.
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If Garth doesnt take Tavares I hope that fans can accept the pick Garth makes and not freak out and say that they arent going to be fans anymore because Tavares wasnt picked. Its ridiculous when people say that. If you were a true Islander fan, you would root for the team no matter who is the 1st pick which is what I will do no matter who’s name Garth calls out on Friday.
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Willis says:
And don’t forget, CB is an Islander FAN just like all of us, and he happens to want Tavares. And since this is his blog (and we all hope you can give us good news on the contined success of the blog in a few days CB)he can make any kind of prediction he wants. Just like many other have this past couple of weeks, eh?
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Shane from Nova Scotia says:
TSN’s Top 10 Prospects. 10 out of 10 scouts say that John Tavares is the #1 prospect available in the NHL entry draft June 26th. 10 out of 10. Barring a mind blowing trade, picking anybody else other then Tavares would again be the Islanders thinking they know more than absolutely everyone else. It cannot happen . TAVARES! TAVARES! TAVARES!
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Numbers65 Dynasty Era Fan in OHIO! says:
No Tavares, no Center Ice Package, save $$, watch Blue Jackets and Nikita Filatov on local TV and probably enjoy a better playoff run than 08-09. Will still root for Isles too, and follow online only. No more wasted time or money on the Isles to be disappointed. Tavares is a chance out of obscurity, and a franchise player to build around, and root for with the rest of the league. If they pass on an ELITE SCORER after sucking all year to earn that right, AND winning the lottery it would be such a waste if 91 is not in an Isles uniform at the beginning of the 2009-10 season.
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bleedingoutislesblue&orange says:
The New York Islanders could become the biggest joke by embarassing and alienating the 1st pick. I’ve followed this team for over 25 years and I finally think I have had it..a fan is a fan until he bleeds out the colors of his team.. I am all dried up..
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To Jim @ 19
Just so you know, and I know this for a fact. They are creating a seperate filing cabinet for all the people who are calling for ticket packages IF they draft Tavares. They know Isles stock will immediately jump based on Tavares wearing Orange and Blue. Charles Wang is a busienss man first, hockey man second. He’s losing everything he can and he’s going to try and minimize his losses. Tavares will be in Orange and Blue just based on business alone. I don’t care what anyone else says…the Isles are a business, they are desperately trying to stay afloat let alone set sail. It’s a done deal, just a matter of time until it’s announced…and man do I look forward for that on the big screen at NVMC
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Wil says:
The Isles are going to pick Duchesne. The way the scouting reports describe him, he is exactly what the Isles been building around. The “heart, grit and character” type guy that Snow and Wang have been shoving in our face for the past few years. He has been rated as the best overall player and we all know Snow does not like taking high risk high reward type players (Filatov in 08). I hope I’m wrong and they take Tavares, but my gut instinct is, Snow will take whats the safest bet. Duchesne is it.
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bcarey says:
The NVMC should be a wild place Friday night, no matter the outcome.
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Glen S says:
I agree with all on here that all three young men are going to be real good player’s in the NHL.But from the Isles stand point the player they need to draft is JT plain and simple. Why you ask because when you pick #1 overall you should(MUST) take the best player available. Myself I will be P/O if they don’t take JT as I think they’ll be passing a great oppurtunity to get that pure goal scorer’s that they so desperatly need.WE don’t need anymore good guy’s on and off the ice we need someone who can put the puck in the NET period
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“132 Wil”–Yep, you hit it right on the head…The Josh Bailey type over the Filatov type…Though Victor Hedman fits into that too, especially since Gordon desperately wants a speedy offensive D-men to play his system..How does Chris say Hedman is at 1%? B.McKenzie & most of the Canadia media are predicting Hedman. I would say Hedman-44%..Duchene- 42%…Tavares 12%…Trade 2%..I would be honestly shocked if the Isles Draft J.T. If we wanted Duchene wouldn’t there be more trade rumors about us & Colorado swapping? And if Snow wasn’t lying he said him & his staff all had a near unanimous pick on 4-14-09(Duchene only had 7 goals out of his eventual 14 Playoff goals he would end up scoring)..So if Snow wasn’t bluffing- it seems hard to believe Snow, Jankowski, Morrow & Wang all clearly wanted Duchene that early in the playoff season…But maybe Snow made up that story to throw us off..
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#131 Jim YOU hit the nail on the head. I just said that to a friend of mine when you look at the money that Mr Wang has lost the last few year’s I believe putting hockey aside here build from the net out, if we don’t start getting more butt’s in the seat’s then it’s possible that they will be building from the net out in KC. So I Friday night I’ll be at NVMC and I sure hope I hear John Tavares name called at around 7:20 pm or so that one player will put us back on the hockey map and can start moving forward with a nice conerstone lioke JT, KO,bailey and the rest of or young gun’s
20,000 tix and counting, per the Isles web site.