Monthly Archives: August 2011
Does the rest of the league see the Islanders as a team on the rise? Will franchise uncertainty affect the players? This and more from today’s interview with TSN’s NHL Insider. Comments on Darren’s thoughts are welcomed.
They have a group of forwards that’s easily among the top eight in the East right now. And the big thing for the Islanders is, they’re only going to get better over the next few years as Niederreiter and Strome develop.
Those are the words of one of Point Blank’s four NHL pro scouts polled for our on-going season preview. The Islanders have a very talented and young group of forwards, of that there is little debate. There are some questions about their overall toughness, and by that I do not mean their proficiency at fighting. Time will also tell if they’re capable of playing the high calibre of team defense required to become a playoff team.
For fun, I asked our scouts to project the goal totals for each of the Islanders’ forwards in 2011-12. I have listed the players in line combinations that, of course, are very subject to change. After each player you will see two numbers: the first is the average of projected goals by the scouts, the second is my estimate for each player. After each line are some notable comments from the scouts.
Matt Moulson (30, 28)
John Tavares (34, 38)
P. A. Parenteau (20, 20)
“Parenteau deserves to be back with that line for another year. They had a great second half together. Why mess with it?”
“I’m sure the Islanders see Neiderreiter on that line eventually, but he needs at least a year or two before putting that responsibility on him. Keep Tavares with the best players for him, and right now that’s Moulson and PA.”
Michael Grabner (28, 30)
Frans Nielsen (16, 16)
Kyle Okposo (20, 24)
“Should be a fun line to watch after a complete training camp together. It’s got a little bit of everything. Actually, it’s got a lot of everything.”
“If he stays healthy, this has to be Okposo’s breakout season. He may only be a 20-25 goal scorer, but he’s capable of adding 40 assists. I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t.”
“Frans Nielsen is the best bargain in the entire league. Unless his agent gives Snowy the home-team discount, he won’t be the biggest bargain a year from now. He’s such a steady player you can put out in every situation.”
Blake Comeau (20, 18)
Josh Bailey (14, 15)
Nino Niederreiter (12, 14)
“Bailey and Comeau have a lot of potential together. I would keep Niederreiter in junior one more year, but it doesn’t look like the Islanders see it that way.”
“The top-six may stay intact, but I’m sure there will be a lot of shuffling with the third and fourth lines.”
“I don’t see Comeau getting 24 goals again this year, but if he does it would be quite an achievement for him and he’d get a lot of interest in the market if the Isles don’t lock him up.”
Brian Rolston (18, 16)
Marty Reasoner (10, 7)
Matt Martin (6, 7)
Trevor Gillies (0, 1)
Micheal Haley (2, 3)
“Rolston was a real nice pickup by Garth. You’re gonna hear all year about his Rolston’s leadership and, if he’s on the power play, he can get 40 points for them. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rolston plays on every line by the end of the year and is re-signed by them.”
“Reasoner hasn’t been in a winning situation in a long time. I was happy to see him rewarded with a good contract. He’ll be solid for them.”
****
Agree or disagree with the scouts’ or my projections, that’s nevertheless plenty of goals from the forward position for a playoff team. Also consider there is some forward out there who is not on this list, maybe not even on the franchise’s extended roster, who will arrive and pitch in. (In an extreme example, no one had Grabner down for 34 goals as an Islander at this time last year). Second-year prospects such as David Ullstrom and Rhett Rakhshani will contribute. Goals will also come from defensemen, especially with the return of Mark Streit.
Best of all, as the scout pointed out, even if the Islanders lose a forward along the way to free agency or trade, they have a chance to be a genuine offensive juggernaut after Niederreiter and Ryan Strome are properly brought along.
Comments on the Islanders’ forwards are welcomed in this thread. Your chance to participate in our SNY Season Preview interviews continues in the next thread.
This week we’ll be in the SNY studio recording a series of Islanders Season Preview segments for Point Blank. Among our guests will be some excellent writers and analysts from media outlets like NHL Home Ice, NBC, Hockey Night in Canada, TSN, The Hockey News, The NHL Network and Yahoo’s “Puck Daddy.”
If you have an interesting question about the Islanders’ 2011-12 season, please submit it along with your name and town in the Comments thread. If we see a good fit with one of the guests, we’ll pose it to him. Thanks as always for your participation.
Please place your name, town and brief Islanders question in Comments. One question per reader, please.
PLEASE BE SAFE THIS WEEKEND AND TAKE CARE OF YOUR FAMILIES. SEE YOU NEXT WEEK…CB
There’s no question in my mind. The Islanders are competitive again.
This is what one of four NHL pro scouts told Point Blank this week for a preseason poll. Four out of four scouts surveyed were confident the Islanders will contend for a playoff berth in 2011-12.
“They’ll be in the playoff race in the East until the end,” said another. “I don’t see more than five teams running away with playoff positions by the start of March. All of the teams that didn’t make the playoffs got better in the offseason. I think this will be a wild playoff race. I wouldn’t be surprised if as many as 9 teams were fighting for the final 2 or 3 spots in late March. For the Islanders, it’s going to come down to how well their D and goaltending hold up.”
That sentiment, of course, was also unanimous among the four NHL pro scouts. These scouts are tasked by their clubs to spend most of their time on the road following the National Hockey League and American Hockey League. They are responsible for filing pre-scout reports for their head coaches and providing guidance to their general managers on trade acquisitions, waiver wire pickups and future free agent signings. All four have followed the Islanders and the Eastern Conference religiously for at least the last three seasons.
To a man, they believe Islanders fans will be engaged in the upcoming regular season from the beginning until the end. “The days of being out of contention way before the All-Star break are finally over,” said one.
That said, none of the scouts were prepared – at least in late August – to declare the Islanders a bonafide playoff team.
Summarized one, “I’ve got three concerns for them: lack of depth and experience – especially on defense – their history of having over 300 man-games lost to injury per season, and the competition in the East. The Islanders are getting better and they will be better, but I don’t know if they’re good enough to close out one of the playoff spots in the final quarter of the season.”
With a key roster upgrade or two, they certainly could. Looking in awe at the Islanders’ cap space, the scouts know general manager Garth Snow has the cap flexibility, resources and assets to add a key player when needed.
“Snowy is not done,” said one scout. “I know he tried all summer to add a dman, but the (Christian) Ehrhoff thing went bust because they wouldn’t give him a blank check up front and he hasn’t been able to connect on another deal like he did with Wisniewski last summer. There’s still time left. Good players will be available during camp in trades and on the wire. A quality player that an Edmonton might not want to spend for could be snapped up by Snowy.”
Said another, “I know for a fact that Garth offered a training camp invite this month to a pretty good veteran, but he turned it down for now. To me, that’s a sign Garth is trying to do whatever he can within his limitations. He has to know he needs more if he really wants his team to finally make a big splash this season. It’s good for business and it’s good for arena negotiations.”
Point Blank Take: There’s probably little above that the most ardent Islanders follower would disagree with. My biggest concern is the team’s lack of depth. The forward corps is strong, but many players still have a lot to prove in crucial game situations. The goaltending rotation is certainly deep and will be a fascinating study from the first day of training camp. The health of the team’s current top six on defense has been well-documented here and elsewhere. (An educated guess at the veteran who turned down the camp invitation ”for now” – Long Island resident Bryan McCabe).
I expect the Islanders to have a very good start to the season and create some much-needed positive buzz for the franchise after the disappointment of the referendum. The schedule is favorable early and the talent is there. But the long NHL season can be cruel for teams that are not well-stocked at every position. Reality could hit for the Islanders in the second half. There are too many teams in the East with far more consistent goaltending and defense.
Unless the Islanders manage to reverse a trend and limit their man-games lost to injury to under 200, the excitement could very well last into March, but as currently constructed the team is more destined for 10th place than the playoffs. That’s if Snow isn’t finally able to make his first major impact transaction of 2011.
Still, as the pro scouts have forecasted, it’s going to be an exciting season from start to finish. Being in the battle late in the season will show marked improvement. After four years of the slow and steady rebuild, legitimate playoff contention will be welcomed. Important hockey games are back at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum this season.
In the coming days, Point Blank – with some assistance from our pro scouts – will take a position-by-position look at the Islanders in 2011-12. Your as-of-now thoughts on where the Islanders will rank in the East are welcomed in the Comments thread. Thank you.
It’s August 25th. Do you know where Josh Bailey’s second professional contract is?
Bailey remains unsigned, and that’s a little bit of a surprise. Islanders training camp begins in three weeks, so this is a good time to review what we know about Bailey, the Islanders and the state of his very restricted free agency.
1. Josh Bailey, 22 on Oct. 2, loves being an Islander and appreciates the opportunity the organization has provided him since he was drafted 9th overall in 2008. The Islanders like the forward just as much, see him as part of their nucleus, are confident his skills will lead to major contributions on the ice and respect his maturation away from the playing surface. Both sides want to get a deal done.
2. Although Garth Snow did a masterful job getting the older and more accomplished Michael Grabner and Kyle Okposo under long-term contracts with cap-friendly terms, Bailey is in a different boat. The first contract after his just-completed ELC will likely be for a shorter term.
3. Several RFAs have yet to come to terms with their clubs on their second pro deals, including Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Luke Schenn, Bruins playoff hero Brad Marchand and skilled Coyotes rush-job Kyle Turris. It is worth noting that Doughty, Schenn, Marchand and Bailey are all represented by the respected Newport Sports Management.
If Bailey remains unsigned after Labor Day in two weeks, and his fellow RFAs have finalized contracts, then there would be cause for concern. Don’t forget Charles Wang’s rule going back to the days of Zdeno Chara and Brad Isbister: if an Islanders player is not signed by the first day of training camp, he will not play for the Islanders and will not receive a contract for the season.
However, it is way too early to be concerned about ultimatums. There is trust and respect on both sides.
The Islanders know what Bailey did in the opening weeks of the 2010-11 NHL season, producing at a Stamkosian pace while centering a line with Blake Comeau and P. A. Parenteau. Bailey struggled after returning from injury and was sent to Bridgeport by Snow one NHL game before he would have been mandated by the CBA to clear waivers.
While Bailey was inconsistent in the second half of the season, often playing out of position and on makeshift lines, the Islanders remember their young player’s positive attitude and superb play during his three weeks in the American Hockey League. Although Bailey had plenty of NHL experience as a teenager, not many players his age dominate what is arguably the world’s second-best league with 6 goals and 11 assists for 17 points in just 11 games.
For good reason, the Islanders have not given up on Josh Bailey and no one has given up on these negotiations. As the team embarks on its first season with genuine promise in four years, having everyone on board is crucial.
Anything but a peaceful resolution before Sept. 15 would be a profound disappointment for both sides.
As always, comments on this particular subject only are welcomed in this thread. Thank you.
11:20 am: When Puck Daddy ran a leaked version of the Islanders’ new third jersey last month, the majority of fans were not delighted by the design. In the weeks following Greg Wyshynski’s article – and after the Islanders said it was only one of three jerseys “under consideration” – I received several emails from insiders saying the actual new Islanders third jersey was worse. The blog Icethetics, the leader in this sort of stuff, has the chosen one. Tough to argue against the early consensus that it’s neither attractive, classy, imaginative or respectful of the Islanders’ tradition as the greatest dynasty in the history of hockey in the United States. Go to Icethetics and decide for yourself. Comments? More later.
Greg Wyshynski of Puck Daddy got me temporarily out of exile today to do ten minutes on PD Radio. We discuss the Ferocious Friday viewing party ridiculousness, the 3 or 4-headed goalie drama and a bit on the team’s future in Nassau. Listen to it here. My spot is tabbed for easy listening. Hard to believe the NHL is investigating the Islanders having a viewing party, just as the club has done all summer. Thanks for checking back, and I’ll see you soon. Comments?
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