ALL ROADS LEAD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
Improving Against the Division Will Be Key
There is one huge hurdle that the Islanders have to clear to have a successful 2011-12 campaign. The beginning, the end and everything in between during this Islanders season will rest on how they fare against the rest of the Atlantic division (and in the on deck circle is injury, waiting to pounce). By beating the Rangers on Saturday night the Islanders successfully completed the first of 24 divisional games they will play this year.
It’s no secret that the Atlantic is a tough division, if not the toughest in hockey. As the perennial doormat of the division, the Islanders need to make strides against teams they either cannot beat or have had trouble beating. Their records against the Flyers and Penguins are atrocious, even worse on the road. The Devils and Rangers are close rivals that always come ready for a fight. We’ve all heard the recitation of statistics a million times about how long it’s been since the Islanders beat the Flyers. I’ll go into some numbers later but I’ll try not to further the beating of that dead horse.
The point I’m getting at is the sobering reality that despite all the optimism that comes with a new season, all the improvement you can expect out of an entire freaking roster of young and up and coming players, every other team in the Atlantic has improved or at least stood pat. Even if the other teams didn’t significantly improve, there’s still the mental hurdle that comes with failing against a team so much for so long.
As for their opponents, the Rangers added Brad Richards and as we saw Marian Gaborik will wreak havoc on defenses. The Flyers turned over the whole roster — make no mistake they replaced stars with stars — and finally may have a functioning All-Star caliber netminder in Ilya Bryzgalov. Regardless of Sidney Crosby’s health and the fact that they stood pat, the Penguins are still the Penguins and every report out of Pittsburgh is that we’re going to see a whole new, Evgeni Destroyer of Worlds Malkin this year. And the Devils? It’s impossible to say what they’ll be. They certainly won’t be the last place horror show they were under John MacLean and it’s too early to tell if they’ll keep up with the best second half record pace they had at the end of last season. Chances are it’ll be somewhere in between. And that “somewhere in between” is right in the wheelhouse of where the Islanders will be as well.
We know this Islander team isn’t going to sit at the bottom of the conference all season — at least they shouldn’t. But there’s also a ceiling here. They’re likely not winning this division by any stretch of the imagination. John Tavares has improved light years from where he was a year ago. Between Al Montoya and Evgeni Nabokov, the Islanders seem to have found some very solid netminding, now the rub is staying healthy. Having Mark Streit back and cranking at 100% has been enormous thus far. So we’ve seen the worst of them on opening night and, presumably, their best against the Lightning. Now the question is, what is the reality? It’s probably somewhere in between the two — but where exactly is that point?
As much as we want to say this is the year, this is the playoff competitive team that will finally get over the hump after years of waiting it’s hard to think that they’ll be anywhere in the top six of the conference without taking care of business against their division. It’s simply the nature of the schedule and league setup that all five teams in a division will not make the playoffs. As much as this team has seemingly improved from last year, there are two factors that above all will contribute to their success or failure this year. The looming factors are, in my opinion, the injury bug and divisional play.
If I’m Jack Capuano and staff, I’m doing whatever I can to find a way to beat the four teams that we play 30% of our games against. I can sit here and talk goaltending or how much the kids improved this summer all I want. Those will be difference makers this year for sure as we have seen but the beginning and end of the season is going to be how the Islanders handle their divisional opponents. 24 games: nearly a third of the entire season against four teams! There’s a cumulative impact when you have prolonged and consistent troubles like the ones they have had against the Atlantic. This season will depend heavily on if the Islanders can beat the teams they have not been able to beat in recent years.
Past two seasons (not including Saturday’s game):
vs. Devils: 4-6-2 overall (1-4-1 road)
vs. Rangers: 5-7-0 (2-4)
vs. Flyers: 1-10-1 (0-5-1)
vs. Penguins: 3-5-4 (0-5-1)
The first thing to notice about those numbers is that they don’t have a winning record against any of those teams. Let me restate this for emphasis: the Islanders do not have a winning record the last two seasons against anyone in the division. They are a combined 13-26-7 against the division the last two seasons with a 3-18-3 road mark good for 28% and 12.5% win percentages, respectively. Compare that to their numbers against non-divisional opponents the last two seasons and I think you’ll see my point.
The team’s record against non-divisional opponents is 51-50-17 (43%) and 21-26-11 (36%) on the road. There’s nothing scientific about this math and I know it’s basic. But what really sticks out is that the Islanders are an NHL .500 team against non-divisional opponents the past two years! 20-game losing streak included! Being .500 alone will put you in the mix for the playoffs. It won’t get you in, but it’s a lot closer than the Islanders have been these last few years. From the numbers, they’re 15% more likely to win any game, home or away, against non-divisional opponents. So study those gametapes and light a fire under them coach, the Rangers win was a big one but there are still 23 more to go.
About Kevin Schultz
Kevin was formerly an NHL blogger for the now defunct AOL Fanhouse and was the creator of the hockey comedy blog Barry Melrose Rocks. He now covers the Isles for Islanders Point Blank. You can follow him for instant updates on the team and talk hockey with him on Twitter @schultz88. View all posts by Kevin Schultz →28 Responses to ALL ROADS LEAD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
Improving Against the Division Will Be Key
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goislesgo105 says:
Last year is last year. All that matters now is that in the division we are 1-0. To me the most important thing for the Isles is that they have to stay healthy. I really think that they are as good as the Rags, the Devils and maybe even the Flyers. Nabby and Al are solid, JT and the first line are playing at a new level and I actually look forward to our penalty kill and watching Grabs and Franzie do their thing. Our fourth line is solid and experienced and if JB and Blake can take their play to the next level too, this team is certainly a playoff contender.Our top 4 D(Streit, Staios,A-Mac and the Hammer) look solid but they have to stay healthy. GO ISLES!!
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isles71 says:
The 1st thing that needs to change is the culture of losing. That starts with the coaches in the room and getting them ready for play on the ice. I am sick and tired of Howie always pointing out how EVERY player in the league has career stats against the Isles…it is a joke. Every game is the same from them….” we’re so bad that even Joe Schmoe has 19 pts in 24 career games against the Isles”. Change the culture on all aspects and the rest will follow…man I wish we still had Billy Jaffe doing games, they got rid of the wrong guy!!!!
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Eric Cup says:
While I understand trends and past history, this Islander team is far from the team that took the ice the last 2 years. There is reason for optimism and it starts in goal and works its way out. We’ve already seen the difference Streit makes. JT was already good but what a Summer he musy have had. He’s stronger and (can’t beleive I’m saying this )Faster. This is a start in the making and he’s going to be mentioned with the top names in the game this year. We can’t be a one line team and I don’t think we are, but it’s great to see that, most importantly, our team D looks solid.
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Onesinceforty says:
OK, the site is back on my favorites list.
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Hock says:
Yes, the Atlantic division games will be very important and there is a lot of room for improvement there. However, if I am the coach, I would try to prepare for win EVERY game! They’re all worth 2 points!!!
The season is such a long road and so much can happen. But based on a very small sample of games, Tavares and his line, goaltending and the Defense have all been very impressive. The second line is warming up, but has yet to contribute in a big way. I believe they will eventually. And I’m just waiting for Josh Bailey and his line (Rolston, Comeau or Martin) to have a breakout game….they all seem to be working hard and winning a lot of the battles. THey have the potential to put up some decent numbers. The 4th line has also been very competent. When adversity eventually comes along, how will this team respond? It seems much deeper and better equipped to handle it this year. I like what I see so far, but it is so early!
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JimfromStJames says:
Thanks Schultzy, killjoy……it’s a new year and every team had a shot at the cup, right?
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Gene F says:
the real test is the Flyers. if they can beat them they can go all the way
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claude says:
Beat the Flyers.They have owned us
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Stumpy32 says:
Clearly, this is a huge issue that probably won’t happen in an overnight way that we want it to. The fact is, like the AL East in baseball, the good teams always improve and spend money, so the odds of closing the gap quickly in one season is highly unlikely.
KS laid it out perfectly – we’re a .500 team – NHL .500 – against everyone else. You want to think that we’ll improve on that with a clearly better team. So, out of 116 possible points vs non-divisional teams, we need to get 60% of those, or approx. 70 pts. With loser points for SOL and OTL, we could do that with a record of 31-19-8, or barely over real .500 (31-27). With that in our sights, we’d need about 25 points from the divisional games to be in the middle of the mix of the conference. So, to get 25 points in 24 divisional games, we just need to be at or near NHL .500 (10-9-5, approx.) to do that. 41-28-13 overall, or 95 pts.
The task is clear – dominate the divisional home games, win at least 1/3 of the divisional road games, and do your job against the non-div teams. It’s not impossible, but something we can consider a baby steps goal for this season.
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Bob E. says:
great work, i say one step at a time. they completed a succesful home stance after a disappointed opening night. They beat ranger handily in first confrontation.
Next step is success road trip thru South.
Then beat the pens a home.
1st line might have all the points but i feel like whole team is chipping in. -
NYI will finish with 100 points and a 6 seed in the playoffs! Tavares will pot 50 goals and 100 points.
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Definite key to our season here. But to me, that is why you bring Micheal Haley up, and honestly keep him here.
You also play Gillies for these games and maybe a few others. Sure give him his “wasted” 2-5 minutes a night, but to have our guys playing brave knowing their protected, especially against the Atlantic Division opponents is KEY.
It’s more than them feeling protected, they are an exciting, pesky core of young and talented guys that can put the puck in the net and cause teams fits. I think this will bode well against our division opponents, as long as they play like they’re not a shell of themselves.
There’s a reason I got the division game season ticket package…I think we finally figured it out and will be very competitive against them this year to finally turn around that losing record.
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Joe in Massapequa says:
Forget the past two years. You cannot change history and you can only worry about what is head of you and learn from the past. I have heard of coaches breaking down the season into 5 or 10 game segments. Getting up for only divisional teams will lead to let downs against non divisional opponents. The Isles always seemeded to get up for the Rangers games and then used to have that mythical “Rangers Hangover.” Play above NHL .500 at home and shoot for NHL .500 or very close to it on the road and the playoffs will be ours.
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MikeInNYC says:
November will be the month when we will get a sense for what this team really is. After the winnipeg game on November 3, it’s nothing but divisional games (5, including 4 in a row) and out-of-division/conference games against teams picked to make the playoffs in their respective conferences.
The next six games are @TB, @FLA, vs.PIT, @PIT, vs.SJ and vs.WPG. The Islanders need 8 points out of those possible 12 to put themselves in a good position going into November.
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A lot can, and has happened from last year. I agree that beating teams in our division is key. We have as much talent as anyone, but I do worry about toughness. I am afraid that during a Flyers game we will be spending more time on our asses than on our skates. I do agree that a rock solid presence of Gillies seems to detour that behavior. We shall see, we have to find a way to beat them and we are good to go!I would prepare one game at a time, using all our assets.
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PA ISlanders says:
Although I’m not on the island much, it always seems i’m around for when the flyers show up at the old barn, and those have been some of the most one sided games i’ve ever seen. I dont thinhk we will take that series but winning a few of them and having closer games would be nice.
that being said We will make up ground against the rags and devils. -
Chris says:
The dision is a Beast. The Isles record speaks to the fact they are a very hard working team. They can catch a Westeren Conference team that does not come out hard & get wins where in the division with the rivalries & bad blood that comes about due to the number of games played it is more difficut. Hopefully are goaltending will be better & that may help us get a few more wins against the Atlantic this year.
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Dr Phil says:
Big men admit their mistakes. Small men don’t, and therefore shrink in esteem. Bush didn’t, and Oabama won’t. Now we come to Garth Snow. It’s time for him to admit his errors in drafting Okposo and Bailey. To move ahead and truly compete for a playoff spot by trading these two non-performing drags on a team of unlimited possibilities. Go Isles!
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Swan says:
Silly. Okposo is a better forward than anyone else Snow could have picked in the 1st round (Grabner is an Islander now) other than perhaps Patrick Berglund.
Snow did a masterful, Hall of Fame job scoring assets (e.g., Kabanov) by moving down and getting Bailey. Although he is not lighting it up, Bailey is acutally outperforming everyone Snow could have gotten instead (Schenn, Filatov, Wilson, Boedker, Hodgson, Beach). In retrospect, Snow could have picked up Tyler Myers, who is probably going to be significantly better than all these players including Bailey but Myers was coming of a significant injury his draft year and a lot of teams stayed away and didn’t want to take a chance.
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Big men admit their mistakes. Small men don’t, and therefore shrink in esteem.
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the bottom line is 1-10 against philly tells it all. a real owner and a real gm would say that is unacceptable and do something about. however when your dealing with wang and snow who live in a fantasy world, they dont care. its unfortunate but j.t. and all the other kids will pay the price for being a soft and small team.
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RA says:
Great stuff Kevin – keep up the great work!
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Numbers65 in Ohio says:
I am feeling great about our goaltending and that alone is a big plus. Streit back is a huge addition as has been evident. Looks like JT took a huge step. Listen to the guy speak, he is very intelligent AND he is an athlete, right after his dad, and he is used to the spotlight since 14. We have only seen the beginning of John Tavares. Let’s see where we stand at the end of the next 6-10 games!
Excellent point about the divisional games. This team is better prepared than ever (in recent times) to take the next step.LET’S GO ISLANDERS!!!
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paulunde says:
Nice piece, Kevin. It appears we will have our work cut out for us!
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Paul says:
Nice work Kevin!
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jon from nj says:
Part of the reason we lose to those teams is they push us around. We are still a small team, comparatively. And Trevor Gillies is not the answer to that. Playing 2:37 means he’s useless. Get someone like Aaron Asham, who can throw=down and can actually play.
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Swan #21. I’ve got two words for you, and they’re not “Happy Birthday.”
Very enlightening. I did not realize we were that bad against our entire division. Nice job Kevin.